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Indy: "Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast"

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Peak Oil article in Today's (3rd August 09) Independent




Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast


I could post any paragraph at random:


The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.


One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day," Dr Birol said


The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.


Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.



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I would not have said it was particularly one-sided. If the IEA are predicting Peak Oil by 2020, that really means we are already in the zone of the crisis, due to the disruption of markets as excess supply disappears.


However, it is worth mentioning that there have been very large discoveries of Nat Gas in North America in the last few years. The US and Canada will have the option of using Nat Gas as an alternative to oil. This will to some extent relieve the pressure on the oil market for the rest of us. Also, we will be able to import LNG from Qatar - at a price mind. Britain is a pretty rich country still and we will be able to out bid most of the rest. However, life will not go on as per normal with fuel going up through £1.50/litre.


Incidentally, has anybody been noticing that the roads are very quiet for the time of year? I was cycling out in the Lammermuirs area on Saturday and was astounded at how quiet the roads were away from towns. It almost felt like a time warp had taken me back to the early 1980s. Effects of recession hitting discretionary cruising?

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