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  1. Silver's TIME TO SHINE? With Gold closing Friday over $2,000 (Gld: $185+; UGL $60+) For Silver ($24.39, SLV: $22.27), AGQ (2x Silver: $28.92), and SIL (silver shares: $26.17 +0.32)? Look set to Breakout, and carry prices higher; Maybe catch up with Gold ($2003), UGL (2x Gold; $60.81) For Silver ($24.39, SLV: $22.27), etc: Silver vs. Gold (GLD), and Silver shares (SIL) GSR: Gold-to Silver Ratio : ===
  2. The $350M Gold Producer Poised for a $300M Annual Windfall (Note: with 137 M sh. OS, at $2.89 ARMN has MktCap of US$ 395M) ARIS Mining: The $350 Million Gold Producer Poised for a $300 Million Annual Windfall Neil Woodyer’s leadership style is to be decisive and lead from the front. Success or failure, there's no in-between, he says with a chuckle from his Bogota office. Neil is CEO of ARIS Mining (TSX: ARIS, NYSE: ARMN), Colombia's leading gold producer and my biggest mining investment. ARIS Mining is poised to generate around $300 million (all figures: USD unless otherwise stated) in sustainable annual EBITDA beginning in 2026, all without issuing new shares. What's astonishing is that its current market capitalization is just $350 million. This suggests that ARIS may be on the brink of a significant surge, and Neil's track record backs this belief. ....In 2016, just days after retiring from Endeavour Mining, Neil and Frank ventured into Latin America with Leagold, eventually merging with Equinox Gold in a C $750 million 2020 deal. However, Neil later regretted selling Leagold before seeing its full potential. ARIS Mining (TSX:ARIS, NYSE:ARMN) Now, Neil's focus is on ARIS Mining, a $350 million market capitalization gold producer with impressive potential. In 2023, ARIS is set to achieve over 200,000 ounces of gold production. It has already earned $90 million in EBITDA during the first three quarters. Named after the Celtic word for "Again," coined by Neil’s wife Colleen, a certified goldsmith, ARIS has risen through a rapid series of strategic deals and the takeover of Gran Colombia Gold. ARIS owns five substantial assets, and each one could be a company maker. Segovia, a high-grade gold mine in Colombia’s Antioquia province, with 150 years of production history, is the big money-maker for ARIS, bringing in $156.1 million in trailing 12 month EBITDA (Nov ‘23 Presentation). It's the financial engine that powers the company's aggressive growth plans. There’s over 3.6 million ounces of gold resources left at Segovia, after ARIS recently doubled the measured and indicated ounces. Exploration is ongoing, and significant untapped potential remains. ARIS is actively expanding its second Colombian mine, Marmato, a huge gold deposit with 6 million ounces in measured and indicated categories, plus 2.8 million ounces inferred and major exploration potential. The Marmato Lower mine is set to begin gold production in late 2025, with over a decade of reserve life and competitive mining costs. ARIS has more than enough capital on hand to finance this expansion, with $210.8 million in cash and $122 million in available project funding. When combined with Segovia, these operations are set to achieve a total production exceeding 400,000 ounces per year by 2026. If targets are reached, and Neil has a track record of delivering, this could yield an impressive $300+ million in annual EBITDA at current gold prices (400Kx(1980/oz-1100/oz AISC) for many years. Just one year of these earnings is nearly ARIS’ current market capitalization. Soto Norte and Other Opportunities Not stopping there, ARIS holds a 20% stake in Soto Norte, one of the world’s richest undeveloped gold projects, also in Colombia. ARIS has the option to buy an additional 30% stake (for $300 million) and is the operator of a joint venture with Mubadala, UAE’s sovereign wealth fund. Mubadala acquired Soto Norte in 2015 as part of a debt settlement with Eike Batista's AUX, which paid $1.5 billion for the asset in 2011. Multiple feasibility studies have since been completed. Plans are underway to move Soto Norte towards permitting. The recent approval of the Marmato Lower Mine bodes well for Soto Norte. With estimated production of 450,000 ounces a year (20-50% to ARIS) at All In Sustaining Costs below $500 per ounce, Soto Norte is a potential Tier 1 asset with an exceptional partner, seemingly forgotten by the market. Neil believes Soto Norte should be largely financeable with debt, his speciality. ARIS has $373.3 million in existing debt obligations at Sep 30, 2023, with the majority ($300M) due in 2026 and paying 6.8% interest, the balance due in 2027. In addition, ARIS possesses full ownership of the huge Toroparu gold-copper deposit in Guyana, previously valued at C $226 million in 2021, and the Juby exploration project in Ontario, Canada. Guyana, an English-speaking democracy with a booming resource economy thanks to a big offshore oil find, is a promising second location for its growth plans. Both Toroparu and Juby represent untapped opportunities for ARIS shareholders. > MORE: https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.aris/aris-mining-ord-shs?postid=35745602
  3. Breakout! For ARMN / ARIS.t. The New US quote may help. Up 7-9% in a day Was big range on day one of trading in Sep. Finally got to a higher level, at US$2.89 + 7.3% ARIS.t finally broke the downtrend :
  4. HIVE RATIO may be bottoming... on lower channel Nov-25: HIVE ($2.94 +0.07) to BTC ($37.77k): Ratio= x1000= 7.78% Oct-28: HIVE ($2.94 -0.14) to BTC ($34.06k): Ratio= x1000= 8.64% Hive-to-Riot ratio, late Nov.23 Hive
  5. LATEST WEEK : Nov.24th Date: Model : Watch: Comb.: PSEI: O’perf 9.30 : 1000.0: 1000.0: 2000.0 6,321 starts 10.31: 1063.1: 987.6: 2050.7 5,974 +8.03% 11.10 : 1061.5: 1003.4: 2064.9 6,162 +5.77% 11.17 : 1083.2: 1004.1: 2087.3 6,212 +6.09% 11.17R 1083.2: 1016.8: 2100.0 6,212 +6.72%* Missed DD trade 11.24: 1082.4: 1011.8: 2094.2 6,270 +5.52% === chg.: +8.24% +1.18% +4.71% -0.81% +5.52% Target, near 2.0 mos.: +2.0%. BEAT: +3.5% MODEL Portfolio, 11.24.23, Nov. 24th APX. 2.79. 86,957: 242,610 200.0k 2.30 MEG. 2.02. 99,502: 200,994 200.0k 2.01 RCR. 4.67. 42,373: 197,882 200.0k 4.72 ==== ====: 641,485 600.0k Cash ==== ==== 400.0K 400.0k ===: Profits. +40,954: 40.9K < Net + Model ==== ==== 1082.4K 1000.k +8.24% WATCH Portfolio, 11.24.23 APX. 2.79 40,816: 121,305 100.0k 2.45 BEL. 1.17 86,957: 101,740 100.0k 1.15 FILRT 2.85 33,557: 95,637 100.0k 2.98 LTG 8.89 11,123: 98,883 100.0k 8.99 MAXS 3.55 25,062: 88,970 100.0k 3.99 Mreit 12.00 8,210: 98,520 100.0k 12.18 RCI .490 196.08k 96,079 100.0k 0.51 ROCK 1.35 71,429: 96,429 100.0k 1.40 VLL. 1.65 59,880: 98,820 100.0k 1.67 ====. ===. 896.4K 1000.k Sale DD 7.88 14,641: 115.4k 100.0k 6.83 Cash* ==== ==== 00.0K 00.0k ===: Watch ==== ==== 1011.8k 1000.k +1.18% + Model ======= 1,082.4k 1000.k +8.24% Combined, M+W: 2094.2k 2000.k +4.71% Vs. PSEI. 6,270. 6,321 : - 0.81% Outperformance : +5.52%
  6. :: NOTE / LINK to SAT PORTFOLIO :: BUILDER Stocks, Note #1, late Oct. + The Return on Builder stocks is 25%. This is based on a very simple metric, PE Ratios, This the average of a portfolio of Seven selected Property stocks that I will be discussing in a breakout group. IMHO, this area of investment has been mostly neglected in our Saturday meetings, and I want to address that neglect, by having a small group with a stronger focus on stocks. we will probably meet in a different location + It is interesting to see now the that currently reported PER ratio of that Group of 7 stocks is: 3.96x which means an Earnings Yield of 25.3%. The average Dividend Yield of the same group is 4.72%. That is below the average REIT yield of about 8%. I now think there is potential for strong rises in dividends, since Earnings are rising post-Covid and the average payout is only 19% of Earnnings. This group also trades at only 26% of Book value. And book value is growing thanks to the low payout ratio. + Here are my estimates of expected returns over the next 2-3 years, based on some quant measures: PRICE TARGETS, BUILDER STOCKS, based on PEAK Comparisons ========================== + % Book : 25.6% > 60-66%, = +134% -158% + PE Ratio: 3.96x > 5.8-9.1x. = +46% - 130% (+earnings rise) + Div.Yield: 4.72%> 3.6-3.2%= +31% - 48% (+divs. rise ) + My opinion overall is AVERAGE of these stocks could rise 50-100% over the next 2-3 years, as the US TBond market stabilises and undervalued builder shares return to more normal Discounts to Book Value, PE Ratios, and historical dividend yields. RISES will be accelerated if they raise dividends faster than Earnings rise
  7. The LONG CYCLE in (distressed?) Secondary Market prices : At our next Stocks Meetup, I want to talk about the Long Cycle in Property, and why we may be in an ideal window for buying Property related stocks. (Not all, but many look very cheap now, brought down by rising rates. If inflation is now past the peak, and rates start falling, that could help property... and meanwhile the historic inflation may work its way into Rents. Yet many of these stocks are near Historic lows. Charts follow.) Above is my Long CYCLE Forecast for Phl.Property, Secondary market as charted in early 2022. In fact, I have the same forecast since mid-to-late 2019 . It remains unchanged, ie "Expected END 2024 Low." As I have explained Property Stocks could bottom up to a YEAR before that important Low in overall secondary market prices. So we may be at the beginning of the "Bottoming Window" for the average Builder stock here already in late 2023. The Ratio of ALI /AyalaLand to TLT (Bonds) may help to pinpoint important turning points Long Cycle w/ TLT/ Bonds: PEAK: Jul.15,'19: 53.5/131= 40.8%. LOW: Mar.19,'20: 23/148 = 15.5%, : 2016: Ytd: ALI : 29.85 /TLT: 90.=33.2% at Nov.19,'23. The '23 Low, Jun.20,'23: 23.15/103 = 22.5% MEG-etc (2.05) etc., can follow SHNG (3.61) > updated: 1.5.24 : old.11/20/23 The Ratio of ALI /AyalaLand to TLT /Bonds (above) may help to pinpoint important turning points
  8. Virtual Condo, 8.53M, 24.Nov.23, was 9M 4stk Areit: Mreit: RCR: Filrt : 4 REIT Stocks M’s: 2.25, 2.25, 2.25, 2.25 : Millions of Pesos Last 32.65:12.20: 4.76: 2.99 : Price at 3 Nov.'23 Div. P2.06: .982 : .391: .301 : Last 12 months Ave 8.14% Last 29.20:12.00: 4.67: 2.85 : Price, 24 Nov.'23 Div. P2.20: .984: .392: .284 : Current x 4Q's Yld 7.53%:8.20% 8.39%:10.0%: Div. Yield Ave 8.53%, x 90%= 7.677% : Aver. Yield, After-Taxos Vs: TLT (4.55%, 3.98%), 10yPhl (0.00%, 0.00%) Shs 68.9k, 181.k, 473.k, 752.k: 000's Shares Bought M’s: 2.01, 2.17, 2.21, 2.14 : Millions of Pesos == 8.53M - 5.22% DPa 152.k, 178.k, 185.k, 214.k: Dividends per annum. D/yr: 729.k (previously 734.k) P/mo 60.8k, monthly average : 61.2k= 55k. Af-Tax
  9. Bottoming process finishing? HK10, Last: $11.14 +0.06 ... HK101: $11.40 -0.02 HK10: 2023: Strange silvery BELLWETHER? Just for Fun, Silver leads Hang Lung HK10 versus SIL, AGQ. ... update: 10d (11.24.23)
  10. Nov 14, 2023: SHELL PILIPINAS TURNS AROUND PERFORMANCE, DELIVERS P2.1BN NET INCOME BY END OF Q3 Shell Pilipinas Corporation (SPC) posted a net income of P2.1 billion for the first nine months of 2023, a significant improvement from the P123 million recorded during the first half of the year. This was attributed to sustain overall volumes growth, increase in premium product penetration, and inventory loss reversal. “We took action to ensure recovery and were able to successfully generate higher earnings compared to the first half of 2023." said Lorelie Quiambao-Osial, Shell Pilipinas Corporation’s President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO). ====. : 2019 : 2020 : 2021 : 2022 : 1stH: Q3 : Q4 : q4’22: Revs. : 218.B: 157.B : 179.B : 291.B : 129B: 62.7B : ??? : 77. B: Net Inc. 5.62B: (16.2B) 3.86B: 4.08B: 123M: 1.93B : ??? : (0.33B) EBITDA 14.3B: (16.5B) 13.1B: 13.22B T. Borr. 29.2B: 35.0B: 30.2B: 50.9B: Sh. Eqy 39.8B: 23.6B: 26.2B: 28.9B: D /E R : ??? : 115% : 107%: === BV / sh. 24.69: 14.65 : 16.22: 17.90: 18.09: 19.29 : ??? : 17.90 : CF / sh.: P6.19: (7.40): P4.90: ?? E.P.S. : P3.48 (10.00) P2.39: P2.53: P0.07: P1.20 : ??? : YrE. Pr. : 32.80: 20.65: 19.88: 16.90: Div./sh.: P3.00: ====: ====: P1.00: PER.yrE: 9.43x: NEG. 8.32x: Yield. : 9.14% 0.0% : 0.0% : 5.92% ====== "Shell Pilipinas turns around performance, delivers P2.1 bn net income by end of Q3" Shell Pilipinas Corporation (SPC) posted a net income of P2.1 billion for the first nine months of 2023, a significant improvement from the P123 million recorded during the first half of the year. This was attributed to sustained overall volumes growth, increase in premium product penetration, and inventory loss reversal. "We took action to ensure recovery and were able to successfully generate higher earnings compared to the first half of 2023." said Lorelie Quiambao-Osial, Shell Pilipinas Corporation's President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO). Mobility benefits from growth levers in Q3 Shell Pilipinas delivered 30 new mobility sites combined with targeted mobility-related activities, driving growth across various sectors of the business. Fuels volume is up by 7%, credited to successful marketing promotions and loyalty offers facilitated through the Shell Go+ app. Enhancing customer experience is one of SPC's priorities and this is carried out through improvement of its mobile applications. The recently launched Shell Fleet App was recognized as a digital solution addressing the unique needs of small and medium entities and streamlines the fleet card application process while offering a transition to cashless fuel management system. SPC also renewed its partnership with Citibank (through UnionBank) to relaunch the Shell Citi Card. This is by far the longest co-branding relationship in the industry, celebrating 25 years of strong partnership and counting. This collaboration offers one of the highest rebates in the industry, further enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty. Non-fuels retail continues to deliver double-digit growth as it posted a 14% increase vs 2022. The introduction of new Shell Café branches and the expansion of Shell Select stores, Select Express, Deli2Gos, and Shell Helix Oil Change Centers nationwide contributed to this growth. Last quarter, Mobility introduced its first Shell Café drive- through in the country.
  11. C08257: DoubleDragon press release - 1 NASDAQ CONGRATULATES HOTEL101 GLOBAL AT NASDAQ TOWER TIMES SQUARE NEW YORK The NASDAQ Stock Exchange congratulates Hotel101 Global Pte. Ltd. ("Hotel101 Global"), the Singapore-registered subsidiary of DoubleDragon Corporation ("DoubleDragon") for its expansion to the U.S.A., as it seals agreement for the Hotel101-Los Angeles California site. The iconic seven-stories-tall NASDAQ Tower showed the Hotel101 Global logo and the message "NASDAQ congratulates Hotel101 Global on its expansion to the U.S.A. as Hotel101 seals agreement for Los Angeles California Site". "Hotel101 Global is currently engaged with select SPAC targets and intends to sign a business combination agreement very soon. The SPAC route is one of Hotel101 Global's options to accelerate the expansion of Hotel101 globally as well as the timetable of its previously announced plans to IPO Hotel101 Global on the US NASDAQ Stock Market", said Hotel101 Global CEO Hannah Yulo- Luccini. "We believe DoubleDragon's Hotel101 is a truly pioneering asset light business model, which as far as we know, has never been done in any part of the world before", said DoubleDragon Chairman Edgar "Injap" Sia II. The concept patent application of Hotel 101's pioneering condotel concept has already been filed and the Hotel101 trademark and country specific domains have been secured in various countries globally. As previously disclosed, Hotel101 Global is expected to derive over 95% of its revenues outside of the Philippines to be consolidated back to the ultimate parent, Philippine-listed DoubleDragon Corporation. DoubleDragon targets for Hotel101 Global to reach a valuation of up to US$17 Billion in the near term based on Hotel101's internal financial projections.
  12. BTC : resistance near $38k is being tested . 10d w/RIOT, to test $12? Play "spot the Dog" ETHE: $8.59, HIVE: $3.17, BITO: $16.22 at. 5.30.23 > ?? 10d, w/Hive ($2.97), Riot ($11.46) / BTC ($37.68k), ETHE ($16.85) ==
  13. BTC : resistance near $38k is being tested . 10d w/RIOT, to test $12? ==
  14. FocusDigital asset fund inflows continue, spot BTC ETF could push Bitcoin to $141k - CoinShares Jordan Finneseth Monday November 20, 2023 (Kitco News) - Digital asset investment products have now seen inflows for eight consecutive weeks as total assets under management (AuM) for globally listed products increased $176 million during the week ending Nov. 17, according to the latest fund flows report from CoinShares. The year-to-date total now stands at $1.32 billion, which shows that interest from institutions is on the rise, albeit a far cry from where it was during the last bull market. “The inflows remain well behind 2021 and 2020, which saw US$10.7bn and US$6.6bn respectively,” said James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. “Trading volumes in ETPs have averaged US$3bn per week, double this year’s average of US$1.5bn.” > more: https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-11-20/Digital-asset-fund-inflows-continue-spot-BTC-ETF-could-push-Bitcoin-to-141k-CoinShares.html
  15. SECONDARY MARKET PRICES, a Cyclical Update in Nov. 2023 Above is my Long CYCLE Forecast for Phl.Property, Secondary market as charted in early 2022. In fact, I have the same forecast since mid-to-late 2019 . It remains unchanged, ie "Expected END 2024 Low." As I have explained Property Stocks could bottom up to a YEAR before that important Low in overall secondary market prices. So we may be at the beginning of the "Bottoming Window" for the average Builder stock here already in late 2023. The Ratio of ALI /AyalaLand to TLT (Bonds) may help to pinpoint important turning points Long Cycle w/ TLT/ Bonds: PEAK: Jul.15,'19: 53.5/131= 40.8%. LOW: Mar.19,'20: 23/148 = 15.5%, Update: ALI: 29.85 /TLT: 90.=33.2% at Nov.19,'23. The '23 Low was Jun.20,'23: 23.15/103 = 22.5% MEG (2.05) etc., can follow SHNG (3.61)
  16. AREIT down, on higher Divs. (0.53 > 0.55: +3.7%). announced last Friday AREIT : ALL: 3yr: Ytd: 10d/ Last. 30.05 . PER: 15.2x Div., last 0.55 x4= 2.20. Yield: 7.32% AReit (30.05) / ALI (29.85) = r-100.7% ... / AC (P647.) = r-4.68% 30yr: TLT : $89.08: -0.96, -1.06% compare: AREIT .ph : 30.05 -1.95, -6.09% MREIT ph : 12.00 -0.14, - 1.15 % RCR .ph : P4.69 -0.04, - 0.89% FILRT ph : P2.90 +0.01, +0.35% ==== Why the Big Drop in AREIT today? AREIT to acquire ₱6.8-B lot from affiliate ACEN in property-for-share swap... AREIT [AREIT 32.00 ▲0.3%; 405% avgVol] said that it will acquire a 276-hectare industrial plot of land from ACEN [ACEN 4.90 ▼1.8%; 185% avgVol], a Zobel Family group affiliate company, in a property-for-share swap worth ₱6.77 billion. In exchange for the land, AREIT will issue 199,109,438 primary shares (~₱34.00/share) to Buendia Christiana Holdings Corporation (BCHC), a wholly-owned subsidiary of ACEN. Once the shares are issued to BCHC, AREIT will enter into a 25-year lease agreement with Giga Ace 8, a subsidiary of BCHC, for the entirety of the plot for the operation of a solar plant. The lease will have guaranteed fixed rent escalations each year, and will have an option for BCHC to renew for another 25 years. The acquisition will increase the value of AREIT’s assets from ₱87 billion to ₱94 billion. MB: This is how a REIT grows its dividend. With its Friday dividend declaration of ₱0.55/share, AREIT has grown its dividend by an astounding amount from its IPO in August 2020. Thanks to its huge pre-transaction public float of 45.41%, AREIT is able to buy this property from ACEN using authorized (but unissued) primary shares without pushing the company into a public float issue. The deal will only drop its public float down to 41.9% once it is completed. This deal also diversifies AREIT’s income stream by slightly reducing its reliance on commercial office lease income. AREIT continues its dominance of the PH REIT scene... AREIT [AREIT 32.00 ▲0.3%; 405% avgVol] declared a Q3/23 dividend of ₱0.55/share, payable on December 15 to shareholders of record as of December 1. The dividend has an annualized yield of 6.88% based on the previous closing price, which increased AREIT’s annualized yield from the previous rate of 6.63%. The total amount of the dividend is ₱1,303 million, which is 94% of the ₱1,390 million in distributable income that AREIT reported for the quarter. Relative to AREIT's IPO price, the dividend increased AREIT's total stock and dividend return to 43.22%, up from its pre-dividend total return of 41.19%. MB: In AREIT’s entire existence, it has never once declared a dividend that was smaller than the one that came before. > Source-Reddit-PhInvest:
  17. Growth Company: "Next 1 Million Oz. Producer"? Aris Mining Red Cloud’s Fall Mining Showcase TIME TO UPDATE THIS? in Dec. 2023 Veteran mining expert, John Hathaway liked 4 Gold stocks a few months ago. (ARIS.t was one. I bet he likes it even more now wityh the 75% jump announced yesterday.) I also own KGC. Kinross. Gold Conference - Sprott - Agnico - Aris Mining - Eldorado - Kinross Gold
  18. "MY TWO Stocks" - V. 1 HOW IT WORKS: People who want to participate should post one or TWO CHARTS on the Phl.Stocks Chat, and be prepared to discuss the charts and the companies they represent: ie. what makes the charts interesting?. (At least one of the charts posted should be stocks from the Model or Watch portfolios, so we can build our expertise in those specific stocks.) Following are THREE stocks charts. Since this is new, I will post an extra chart: TLT, to kick this off. We can discuss just two or all three. There is something to learn about DISCERNMENT from these. TLT / BONDS. Key resistance is dead ahead at 91-92. Next week, we may see this tested. (At TLT = 90, the interest rate is 4.6% for long term US Treasuries.) I reckon this Rate is the main driver for Global interest rates. PHL 10 year rate is now 2% higher at 6.56%, and PHL.Reits average over 8%, >3.4% higher than LT Bonds - that's a big spread btw, suggesting Phl.REITs may be a good buy right now.) MEG / Megaworld, closed at 2.07, up 0.08 or +4.0% on the week. APX / Apex Mining, closed at P2.65, up 0.10 or +3.9% on the week. I often compare this with UGL (2X Gold), which closed at 59.64, up 2.61 from 57.03, or +4.6% on the week
  19. STILL WAITING for a good breakout - Watch TLT/ Bonds! MEG (2.00 -0.03) / TLT (92.62 -0.37, -0.40%) = 2.16% at 12.05- No Breakout! 11.17: (2.07 +0.04) / TLT (89.62 +1.10, +1.24%) = 2.31% at 11.17.23, MReit P12.16 +0.10. was P12.34 Thu. 11/17th 11/17: (2.07 +0.04) / TLT (89.62 +1.10, +1.24%) = 2.31% at 11.17.23 Mreit's apparent 0.20 drop on Friday, was due to a Div. payment Day : MEG, vol.M/ Mreit: Open, High, Low, Vol.M THU: 2.03: 23.43/ 12.34: 12,40, 12.42,12.20, 0.75 FRI : 2.07: 21.99/ 12.14: 12.20, 12.50, 11.54, 1.15 exDiv: 0.246
  20. LATEST WEEK : Nov.17th-revised Date: Model : Watch: Comb.: PSEI: O’perf 9.30 : 1000.0: 1000.0: 2000.0 6,321 starts 10.31: 1063.1: 987.6: 2050.7 5,974 +8.03% 11.10 : 1061.5: 1003.4: 2064.9 6,162 +5.77% 11.17R 1083.2: 1016.8: 2100.0 6,212 +6.09%* Missed DD trade === chg.: +8.32% +0.41% +4.37% -1.72% +6.72% Target, at 1.5 months: +1.5%. BEAT: +5.2%! MODEL Portfolio, 11.17.23, Nov. 17th APX. 2.65. 86,957: 230.436 200.0k 2.30 MEG. 2.07. 99,502: 205,969 200.0k 2.01 RCR. 4.83. 42,373: 205,933 200.0k 4.72 ==== ====: 642,338 600.0k Cash ==== ==== 400.0K 400.0k ===: Profits. +40,954: 40.9K < Net + Model ==== ==== 1083.2K 1000.k +8.32% WATCH Portfolio, 11.17.23 APX. 2.65 40,816: 108,162 100.0k 2.45 BEL. 1.17 86,957: 101,740 100.0k 1.15 DD 7.70 14,641: 112,736 100.0k 6.83 FILRT 2.89 33,557: 96,980 100.0k 2.98 LTG 9.09 11,123: 101,100 100.0k 8.99 MAXS 3.75 25,062: 93,983 100.0k 3.99 Mreit 12.14 8,210: 99,669 100.0k 12.18 RCI .550 196.08k 107,844 100.0k 0.51 ROCK 1.35 71,429: 96,429 100.0k 1.40 VLL. 1.64 59,880: 98,203 100.0k 1.67 ====. ===. 1,016.8K 1000.k Cash* ==== ==== 00.0K 00.0k ===: Watch ==== ==== 1016.8k 1000.k +1.68% + Model ======= 1,083.2k 1000.k +8.32% Combined, M+W: 2100.0k 2000.k +5.00% Vs. PSEI. 6,212. 6,321 : - 1.72% Outperformance : +6.72% After 1.5 Mos., NAV is 6.7% ahead of PSEI (without DD): missed BUY at P6.83 WATCH Portfolio, 11.17.23 APX. 2.65 40,816: 108,162 100.0k 2.45 BEL. 1.17 86,957: 101,740 100.0k 1.15 FILRT 2.89 33,557: 96,980 100.0k 2.98 LTG 9.09 11,123: 101,100 100.0k 8.99 MAXS 3.75 25,062: 93,983 100.0k 3.99 Mreit 12.14 8,210: 99,669 100.0k 12.18 RCI .550 196.08k 107,844 100.0k 0.51 ROCK 1.35 71,429: 96,429 100.0k 1.40 VLL. 1.64 59,880: 98,203 100.0k 1.67 ====. ====. 904.1K 900.0k Cash* ==== ==== 100.0K 100.0k ===: Watch ==== ==== 1004.1k 1000.k +0.41% + Model ======= 1,083.2k 1000.k +8.32% Combined, M+W: 2087.3k 2000.k +4.37% Vs. PSEI. 6,212. 6,321 : - 1.72% Outperformance : +6.09%
  21. Buy: VLL w/ Ratio at 95% or Lower? VVV3: VLL: 1.61, -0.01 /VREIT: 1.68, -0.01= 95.8%, 89.62 11.17.23 update Date ==: VLL / VReit: Disc. Pct : /TLT, %TLT 11.17. 23: 1.61 / 1.68 : (0.07): 95.8%, 89.62* 1.80% 10.31.23: 1.60 / 1.66: (0.06): 96.4%, 83.58, 1.91% 09.29.23: 1.64 / 1.69: (0.05): 97.0%, 88.69, 1.85% 08.29.23: 1.59 / 1.65: (0.06): 96.4%, 96.31, 1.65% 08.02.23: 1.57 / 1.67 : (0.10): 94.0%, 97.09, 1.62% ====== Switch from ALI (29.50, -0.30) > VLL (1.64, 5.56%)... Or, if really brave > FLI (0.56, 1.90%) VLL-etc: Ytd: 1.64, ALI: 29.50, MEG: 2.04, 6.91%, FLI: 0.56 update: 11.17 10.31: 1.60, 4.97% /ALI: 32.20, MEG: 1.98, 6.15%, FLI: 0.61, 1.89%
  22. (BPI Report, Oct.11, 2023): price then: 3.00 (TLT:88.47: 3.39%), last: 2.80 (89.62: 3.16%) FILRT at Inflection Point Initiating coverage with BUY: We assume coverage on FILRT with a BUY rating and DDM-based end-2024 target price of Php3.80/shr, implying potential upside of 26.7%. We believe rental income and occupancy rates are at an inflection point going into 2024. We expect avg. vacancy rates to peak this year and stabilize at the 16% level. We then expect rates to gradually improve to 15%/14% in FY24/25F on the back of the firm’s aggressive origination efforts and our view that the cheaper rents in Alabang (where rental rates are 20-50% below those in other major Manila CBDs) will help stoke demand. Furthermore, our forecasts assume: 1) expiring leases will renew at lower rates (~8% lower on avg vs previously contracted rates), and 2) a 95% AFFO payout ratio (vs historical avg of 110%, based on our computation). We believe concerns about FILRT’s lower-than-peer occupancy rates (84% as of 1H23 vs peer avg of 95%) have been more than priced in following the stock’s steep 45.5% YTD sell-off (vs PCOMP’s 4.6% decline). At current levels, we find the stock’s FY24F dividend yield of 9.5% attractive against the current 10- year BVAL of 6.6% amid a potential backdrop of falling interest rates in the next 12 months. DPU growth to resume next year, occupancy rates have room to ramp up. From our projected 24% decline in dividends per share (DPU) this year, we expect DPU to grow ~4%/9% in FY24/25F to Php0.29/0.31 underpinned by: 1) steady improvement in occupancy rates (85%/86% in FY24/25F), and 2) healthy core earnings growth (5%/12% in FY24/25F) supported by the implementation of the 5% annual escalation rate of existing lease contracts and forecasted margin improvement (+20bps YoY to 59.7% FY24F NOI margin) as costs remain in-check. Management noted that around 17%/9% of total GLA will expire in FY24/25F. For now, we assume expiring leases will be renewed at lower rates considering the current office supply glut in the industry (18.4% 1H23 NCR office vacancy rate from Colliers, with 2.5M sqm of vacant office space). Any positive rental reversion poses an upside risk to our estimates... DPU... Dividends per Unit, "Con.sus" below is consensus opinion Year: Con.sus: BPI : Quarterly, Actual 2021A 0.45 0.1125 2022A 0.36 0.0900 2023E P0.30 : 0.28 0.0700: 0.071, exD. 11/28/23 (announced 11/09) 2024E P0.32 : 0.29 0.0725: 2025E P0.33 : 0.31 0.0825
  23. (BPI Report, Oct.11, 2023): price then: 3.00 (TLT:88.47: 3.39%), last: 2.80 (89.62: 3.16%) FILRT at Inflection Point Assume coverage with BUY: We assume coverage on FILRT with a BUY rating and DDM-based end-2024 target price of Php3.80/shr, implying potential upside of 26.7%. We believe rental income and occupancy rates are at an inflection point going into 2024. We expect avg. vacancy rates to peak this year and stabilize at the 16% level. We then expect rates to gradually improve to 15%/14% in FY24/25F on the back of the firm’s aggressive origination efforts and our view that the cheaper rents in Alabang (where rental rates are 20-50% below those in other major Manila CBDs) will help stoke demand. Furthermore, our forecasts assume: 1) expiring leases will renew at lower rates (~8% lower on avg vs previously contracted rates), and 2) a 95% AFFO payout ratio (vs historical avg of 110%, based on our computation). We believe concerns about FILRT’s lower-than-peer occupancy rates (84% as of 1H23 vs peer avg of 95%) have been more than priced in following the stock’s steep 45.5% YTD sell-off (vs PCOMP’s 4.6% decline). At current levels, we find the stock’s FY24F dividend yield of 9.5% attractive against the current 10- year BVAL of 6.6% amid a potential backdrop of falling interest rates in the next 12 months. DPU growth to resume next year, occupancy rates have room to ramp up. From our projected 24% decline in dividends per share (DPU) this year, we expect DPU to grow ~4%/9% in FY24/25F to Php0.29/0.31 underpinned by: 1) steady improvement in occupancy rates (85%/86% in FY24/25F), and 2) healthy core earnings growth (5%/12% in FY24/25F) supported by the implementation of the 5% annual escalation rate of existing lease contracts and forecasted margin improvement (+20bps YoY to 59.7% FY24F NOI margin) as costs remain in-check. Management noted that around 17%/9% of total GLA will expire in FY24/25F. For now, we assume expiring leases will be renewed at lower rates considering the current office supply glut in the industry (18.4% 1H23 NCR office vacancy rate from Colliers, with 2.5M sqm of vacant office space). Any positive rental reversion poses an upside risk to our estimates... DPU... Dividends per Unit, "Con.sus" below is consensus opinion Year: Con.sus: BPI : Quarterly, Actual 2021A 0.45 0.1125 2022A 0.36 0.0900 2023E P0.30 : 0.28 0.0700: 0.071, exD. 11/28/23 (announced 11/09) 2024E P0.32 : 0.29 0.0725: 2025E P0.33 : 0.31 0.0825 ====
  24. BPI Securities retains BUY rating on JFC. Last: P225 +8.00, PER: 37.6x Jollibee Foods: Sticky demand drives strong 9M23 results Price Target cut to Php274/share, maintain Buy. We reiterate our Buy rating on JFC but lower our PT to Php274/share (from Php292 previously) as we: 1) lift our risk-free rate assumption to 6.7% (from 6.2% previously), 2) roll-over our PT basis to end-2024, and 3) and tweak our FY23/24F EPS by 4.1%/-2.6% following the firm’s 9M23 earnings results (+76% YoY, ~86% of our previous full-year forecasts). Our earnings revisions reflect slightly tempered operating expenses (lower by 3% vs previous estimates) in lieu of YTD trends, which could be attributed to JFC’s cost rationalization efforts and operating leverage benefits. Still, we expect opex to significantly catch up in 4Q23, similar to 2022 trends (4Q22 opex accounted for 35% of FY22 figures). We also bake-in lower SSSG estimates (4% from 5% previously) for JFC’s international business next year considering the recent slowdown of some categories (Highlands coffee, CBTL, and China). Nonetheless, robust 9M23 results were underpinned by resilient topline growth (+18.0% YoY to Php177.4B, ~72% of our FY23F revenues) with the Philippine/ international business registering a 17.5%/5.4% SSSG in 9M23. Inflationary pressures appear to have not impacted demand for JFC’s products specifically its Philippine business (evidenced by the QoQ revenue growth and strong SSSG in 3Q23), likely due to the firm’s brand strength and diversified product and store portfolio. At FY24F P/E of 29.2x, JFC’s valuation still marks a 23% discount to prepandemic valuations (the stock traded around 38x P/E on avg in 2018-2019) following the stock’s 14% sell down since reaching its 52-week high last August. We believe the stock deserves higher multiples given its solid sales and earnings trajectory. Our new PT implies a decent upside of 26.7%.
  25. PSEI - SPY, etc Psei (6,191.5) / SPY (449.68) = R-13.77x Key Resistance for PSEI. Will it follow SPY, and IWNM higher, or await a further "push" from TLT?
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