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About Hogwild

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  1. I dont think so. A very up market removal company has just delivered the new occupant's belongings. I'll observe behaviour though; it usually speaks volumes.
  2. We now have confirmation; the lucky £5000 per week tenants are moving in today!
  3. Try Farmers' Weekly - a few small holdings get advertised in there but probably those in the SE are few and far between. I think the website is www.fw.co.uk - but check under Commodity Corner thread and look for VictorBroom - he put me on to it.
  4. Hogwild

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Sometime ago I remember Dr Bubb doing a calculation of the speculative premium in UK housing. The average house needs to fall from £168000 down to £135000 ie 20%. Despite all the frantic efforts to recreate the boom prices are stuck. The laxative of rising unemployment and the threat from the bond market vigilantes should shift the blockage in the next 18 months. In real terms of course we have already seen a substantial crash but of course the experts in smoke and mirrors technology have completely hoodwinked the bulk of the UK population about the true state of affairs.
  5. Bearing in mind that we are in the City of Westminster, where the well known case a woman with 6 kids living at taxpayers expense in a £2.5m house just a stones throw from that other burden on the taxpayer - Mr & Mrs T Bliar!, anything is possible.
  6. The house next to me no longer has it's For Let sign. This was placed on the market early June at a rent of £4995 per week. It appears they may have a taker!! I hereby eat my previous predictions on the UK Prperty thread that they would never let it!
  7. Funding for a government scheme that helps protect homeowners at risk of repossession is to be reduced, the housing minister announced today. That should get the bowels of the market shifting!
  8. Hogwild

    UK House prices: News & Views

    The UK population has been brainwashed by the government media machine. Special interest groups have been pandered to and made to feel that they are entitled to a free living, and many choose not to work. I hope this nonsense is about to stop otherwise I am getting out in a couple of years time. I had to struggle in my earlier years because I started with nothing; I didnt expect handouts. I dont see why I should subsidize the lazy. If they choose to remain idle and not figure out for themselves how to pull themselves up by their bootstraps - tough luck! There should be no easy way out for the lazy. The only exceptions to this in my books are the disabled, sick and mentally ill - in a civilised society they must be helped. 40 years ago Singapore was a backwater. There industrious population have tranformed their tiny island into an a massive success under the leaderhip of Lee Quan Yue. He was tough, uncorruptible and fair. The people responded as they have. Meanwhile over here in the UK our obsession with "mob rule dressed up in a coat and tie" (hat tip Mr Casey) - so called democracy- has allowed the majority (dumb asses in the main) to set the sails for the good ship HMS UK and head towards the rocks. Falling real standards of living will hopefully remove the idea that a country can live beyond it 's means, and at some one elses expense.
  9. Technical analysis should be used together with fundamental and economic factors. The March 2009 lows are likely to be proved the long term low.The move over the past 2 months is a correction of the move up from those lows. Monetary policy is loose and will likely remain so for a considerable period; this will gradually translate into a further move up. It will likely be a choppy market. Overall, the stock market will lead the real economy as it always does. Bull markets are always killed off by CB's raising interest rates; we are in the opposite position currently. Monetary policy trumps everything else. We may not se a rise in real terms but we certainly will in nominal terms.
  10. Hogwild

    UK House prices: News & Views

    In 1973 real estate in the UK was in a blow-off mode. 1974 heralded a banking crisis - Natwest Bank was technically bust but was bailed out by the other clearing banks on the insistance of the Governor of the B of E. In those days of course the crash in house prices in real terms was masked by the general inflation rate. It was after this crash that I was able to purchase two flats on 9,75% mortgages and exploit the swing back up in property prices by 25%.
  11. Hogwild


    With a tougher view on the role of the public sector and the associated budget trimming, interest rates have to be kept very low for a long time, otherwise they really would crash the housing market and further undermine the banks' capital. Even if rates rise thay will be behind the inflation curve and be negative in real terms -unless a calamity encourages the bond vigilantes to demand much higher rates. I think a period of stealth inflation is ahead - the benign influence of deflation from China will ease as workers there demand higher wages. Overvalued assets will continue to deflate in real terms; but the things we need in our everyday lives will increase in price. Whilst there are negative real interest rates the price of gold will reflect that and attract buyers. The other variable of course is the £$ relationship - more austerity in the UK and less in the USA or vice versa will govern the moves from a UK holder's perspective. As a buyer from 2003 onwards I have seen the currency ebb and flow but the value of the early purchases are up almost 4-fold. Depends on the time horizon someone has.
  12. Hogwild


    After the gold rush Gold is not as expensive as it seems Jul 6th 2010 | From The Economist online FOR the past nine months, gold has been trading consistently over $1,000 an ounce. It reached a high of $1,259 on June 18th, up 35% from a year earlier. After adjusting for inflation, today’s heady prices are some way off the 1980s mania. The 2010 yearly average of $1,154 is still 29% below the inflation-adjusted price in 1980 of $1,623. Perhaps now is the time to sell. After the January 1980 peak, the price fell by 55% over the following two years. They fail to mention the comparable debt figures and how they have inflated over this time period. How convenient. Teenage scribblers or what?
  13. Hogwild

    UK House prices: News & Views

    According to a Reuters poll UK house price recovery to taper off but no double dip RTRSUK house prices to rise 3.5 pct in 2010, 1.9 pct in 2011 16 of 22 economists see no double dip in prices Monthly UK mortgage approvals to creep up British house prices will regain some lost value this year but while the speed of the uptick will taper off next year there is little chance of a double dip, according to the latest Reuters poll of property analysts. The quarterly survey of 27 analysts showed house prices will increase 3.5 percent this year but just 1.9 percent in 2011, a rosier outlook for 2010 than in April's poll which saw prices rising 2.0 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2011. Only six of 22 analysts in the poll taken between July 1-8 said prices would fall again. Will they regain lost value in terms of gold though? It's funny how "economists" rarely mention this.
  14. Hogwild

    Terrane Metals (TRX)

    I am tempted to put in a "stink bid" somewhere near the 200 day ma which is quite close to the 61.8% Fibo of the move fromOct 2008 and Nov 2009. In the current climate of uncertainty it may take a bit longer to get the finance in place and it might be dilutive.
  15. Hogwild

    UK House prices: News & Views

    There a still some interesting sellers ( Grainger and Halifax in particular) in the auctions. Here is the latest from Allsop: ""The sale will be held over two days on Wednesday 17th and Monday 22nd February. As usual, the venue will be The Cumberland Hotel, Great Cumberland Place. Marble Arch London W1. Clients represented at this important sale include Anglian Water Group, Aviva Investors, AXA Sun Life plc, Department of Health Estates, Grainger plc, Halifax plc, Hyde Housing Association Ltd, L & Q, BRB (Residuary) Ltd in association with Lambert Smith Hampton, Metropolitan Housing Trust, Mountview Estates plc, Network Rail, Riverside, The London Borough of Southwark, The London Borough of Lambeth, Sovereign Housing Group, Springboard Housing Association."" Grainger was a bit close to the edge at one point. Interesting that they are still deleveraging. If they saw a rebound of any size in the future they would surely have been hanging on. Let the buyer beware. Anyone tempted to buy should take heed from some of the comments above regarding rents having been stationary for 5 years. There are landlords that need you more than you need them.