bobbyald141

I agree except that I also expect a "BTL tsunami" period at some point where the BTL crowd all try to get out at the same time. This may be brief but would see a dramatic plunge in prices.

I addressed this quote on HPC as follows: It's a long way down from here.

Playing it cool then Dom? Good idea, best not get carried away just yet. As my wife says, it's never a good idea to be premature.

We still have house price inflation then? It's just eased a little. I'm predicting a boom of negative 50%.

I've seen this quoted in various places as a gloomy comment. Am I the only one who thinks that this is a remarkably optimistic comment? If prices get anywhere near 2007 levels in 2015 I'll be stunned as nothing will have changed and the bubble will still be going strong. I can see 2015 being close to the bottom at maybe 50% below 2007 levels.

I know what you mean - it has been similar for me too. There is no guarantee that they can get out in time however and the potential for a huge loss is still there. I'd be very happy in cash at the moment. Lucky I converted to A$ so I'm currently ahead on the exchange but if you want to see a real housing bubble come to Oz.

It's not music but to be amazed by the relative sizes of the planets and stars watch this:

My point is if you have lots of people making random guesses it's possible to select those have great records of say 60%, 70%, 80% accuracy or even perfection but there next prediction is still just a random guess like yours or mine.

Have you ever wondered why we get a steady stream of "experts" (who most people have never heard of before) who then, when in the spotlight, turn out to have the same predictive powers as my cat? Could it be that there are thousands of these people out there guessing and some at sometime get a couple of lucky calls right? I wonder.

Agreed but this is easier said than done. Exactly what jobs are people going to do to create wealth? Can the UK compete with Asia on labour costs? Have the UK got resources they can exploit? What do 20m working people actually do? As it stands a sizable number of workforce just provide meaningless services for each other.