Steve Netwriter

Hi All I thought I'd pop in and see if everyone was jumping off tall buildings lol A bit disapponted by the lack of suicidal tendancies lol Maybe not a very representative group here, too intelligent and knowledgeable. Funnily enough I've not been watching the price of fiat currencies much recently. I guess this is a temporary spike before a massive drop

It is lol But measuring anything against a varying/flexible metric is bound to make things tricky and is liable to be unreliable and give a false picture A good metric doesn't have to be gold, it could be a basket of commodities, time averaged to remove short term market variability. I like to watch the price of tins of pineapples lol 99c, then $1.39, then $1.49, now back to $1.39, all in the last few years in Countdown Likewise cheese, was $5, got to about $12.99, now back at around $9.99. So prices have doubled in the past 6 years?! Or more accurately, the purchasing power of the NZ$ has halved?! If the doubling time is 6 years, 70/6 gives 12% per year. Seems a little higher than the official CPI increases lol If "gold has gone up by 23% per year", that's a purchasing power increase of more like 11% per year. Not very much during such a turbulent and dangerous economic period. Methinks there's a lot of catching up to do

A bit out of date, but my Gold Index, showing how the basket of major currencies have fallen against gold since 2000: I look forward to updating this when a catastrophic change occurs (as in catastrophe theory) I still think this is quite likely

Hi Romans I see you're in the same time zone A few points from me 1. I don't see "gold as an investment". To me, "an investment" is something you go into in order to try and "make money". I see gold, and to some extent silver, as a way to "not invest", ie to avoid all the speculative investments, whether paper "money", stocks, etc. 2. The Gold charts seem to be following the general trend since 2001. It's rather boring. One day that trend will be broken, and the paper currencies will drop much faster than they have been. 3. I don't see gold appreciating at all. I do see the paper currencies continuing to fall. I haven't created any new charts for rather a long time now lol. Wow doesn't time fly when you're busy on other things! Looks a bit outdated now doesn't it lol It looks like I thought the GoldUS$ rate of change was 23% per year:

What do they say, "buy when all else are selling" lol It looks to me like we've been through a long enough period of boredom and depression for those who think lines up should be straight I do remember commenting on Jim Sinclair's 1650, and how the GoldUS$ rate went straight through it, but now looking at the chart, maybe he did pick an important level. Onwards and upwards

Pictures of NZ, tales of a Roman Holiday, and apparently the "Goldbugs" have left? I haven't been following the charts much recently, I just check occasionally. Am I the only one who thinks those charts are screaming one thing? If this was Star Trek, Scotty would be screaming "the pressure is too great Capt'n, she's gunna blow" lol

I'll be interested to see how this works out. On my site people register as normal but have to fill in a reason field. I don't get that many, but I get an amazing variety of reasons written, from "FFFIUGYTD" to short essays, many of which demonstrate a real knowledge out there. I doubt you'll get many emails from spambots, or spammers, so it may well work well, because only those who want to join will bother.

No, it signals loss of faith in the currencies. Gold is not an inflation hedge. If it was, you would have seen gold rise from 1980.

Article updated with a few extra charts, including this one:

Explanation: A Quick Summary of my Learning & Progress Along the 2008 Gold Prediction http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3605

The fall of the US$ also surprised me: Laura, wanderer posted a VERY large rocket going up. I'm not sure why

Yay, it's an audio and I can get it here in NZ Thanks, going to record it for my personal listening pleasure

I didn't read any reason for GoldUS$=200. Maybe it's just a number picked out of the air, or maybe it's just mimicking the large fall callers. Or maybe there's an assumption that some people/traders will still think paper gold has some value. It's not an aspect of the article I particularly made note of.

Well actually I would say "there are other paradigms, and maybe better ones than your current one". The problem I see is looking at the "gold price". It makes it look as if gold is rising. It looks LIKE a bubble. Invert the chart, showing the currencies falling, which most people KNOW they are, and things look a little different. Saying "will the gold price peak and fall back" is like saying "will the currencies drop and bounce?". Yes, possible, but by how much? And they may not bounce. They could hit zero and disappear. Could the US$ fall to GoldUS$=2000. Yes, very very likely. Could it get to 5000? Yes, very very likely. Could it get to 10,000. Yes, very likely. Could it get to 50,000. Yes. That is one solution to the US debt problem. The only solution I know of!

Well I used to say "gold is money", but FOFOA has educated me a little more recently, so it seems to be "a really good store of wealth"