Steve Netwriter

I'll reword that for you US$ looking WEAK to take out the all time LOW. The price looks fairly WEAK here after having had a period of time to consolidate at these levels

Yes, I saw that. Spot on

The Price of Gold is Arbitrary http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3409 "Roubini's opinion is significant because people listen to him." On that, I agree.

Roubini: This rules him out instantly for me as a credible source of opinion.

Maybe this will help: We're Forever Blowing Bubbles http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3406

It's now September 2010, and GoldUS$ did not go below 1,157 http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3389

Oh, and finally... :lol: :lol: There are so many words that are appropriate as an answer to that, and not one of them is possible without me deserving being banned. Let's just say, I'm laughing my socks off. The ignorance of the Human race never ceases to amuse me. I'm going to add that reply to my list of quotes. When I want a good laugh, I'll be able to find it straight away.

Faith in the ability to create a good enough system. And the mistake of ignoring chaos theory. Did they? I didn't know that. Is it true? Yes. Yes. Why can't they be reduced to computation? You will need to define "computer". It might be simpler if you simply say what you think people are. With my interpretation of your statement, which of course might be wrong, but is the common meaning of that statement, I would say "that is incorrect", and that that statement reminds me of this statement: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." In this case it would be rewritten something like this: The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand how our own brain works.

I agree entirely I knew I'd worded that last bit poorly. What I really meant was "knowing how the brain works would reduce the tendency of people to make up ideas about how we think, are creative etc". I agree about being irrational, knowing we are, and why, might help, but I think most people will still be irrational. Positive/negative drawings are a simple example. You can see two different images in one drawing. Which is right? Both. It just depends what you see at the time. What we see is what we interpret. The thing about going down to the network level is that it becomes more like computation, and thus avoids the more generalised fluffy thinking, IMO.

Hi magpie, I'm glad you enjoyed my vent I'll tell you what annoys the hell out of me. I watched so many programmes in which philosophers/thinkers/experts are talking about the thought processes etc. And NOT ONCE did they mention neural networks, or explain the basics of how the brain actually works. They just talked in generalities. It gives the majority who don't bother to research that the thinking is some mystical magical process, when in fact, it's the way the brain manages to do it that's amazing. They consistently miss the main point, and fail to pass on to people the real wonder of what biology has managed. I think most people should at least have a reasonable grasp of how their own brain actually works!!!!! Don't you? It would for example help them to understand how their kids are developing. And it would prevent stupid myths and silly ideas from being accepted. Yes, there are people doing some real sensible and exciting work, although I'm a little behind on recent research

I've just been checking out this Tom O'Brien guy after his latest apparent call failure. I found this: http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3339#comment-4971 He based his prediction on the link between the US$ and GoldUS$, and got it wrong.

When you see the demand for physical gold/silver go up, and the price go down, you know something "odd" is going on. Buy physical, and forget the paper price and all this trading nonsense.

I had no time to follow most threads.

It's looking increasingly unlikely that GoldUS$ will get down to 1100 in August: I think people like Tom O'Brien are, how can I put this nicely,..... unwise When I saw what he'd said, I laughed. I guess his account will judge him LOL.

I think Goldfinger's replies cover it pretty well. First, I applaud your wording: "cheaper when buying with gold". I think the purchasing power of the US$ will decline drastically. Picking the currency that falls least seems like a bit of a futile exercise. Hyper-inflation is not a theory. It's the name given to a known and recorded process. ie there are examples of it. Maybe a clear definition is required, and agreed upon. Inflation Can be defined as: 1. An increase in the amount of currency in the system - the correct definition. 2. An increase in prices - this is wrong. 3. A process in which the economy grows, wages rise, borrowing increases, and prices rise. - This has some merit, but is also wrong. It is better to stick to descriptions of the component parts, because no word can accurately define any process which involves many factors. eg during an inflationary process wages might not rise. Is it still an inflationary process? Hyper-inflation 1. Is NOT high inflation. 2. Is caused by a lowering faith in the currency, in which the currency is treated like a hot potato. 3. Is a very poor term to use. For a more complete description: http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3337 I picked what I thought was the most apt analogy. I will explain. I view philosophy like this: 1. There are inputs, and with philosophers those inputs are limited, as most philosophers are scientifically ignorant. It seems to me that philosophers tend to reduce the inputs to just their own thoughts, and those of other philosophers. 2. There is the philosophical process. Again limited to philosophical type thinkers. 3. The result, is often rubbish, best treated with care, and discarded carefully. I hope you can see the merit of the analogy, and why "navel-gazing" is less appropriate. You can if you wish see my views on philosophy, and my answers to all the common questions like "what is the meaning of life?", here: http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3335 I meant it in two ways: 1. The market will judge your decisions. 2. In the way history judges people. For example, how does history judge Hitler? What you do and say, specially in public, is likely to be seen in context, at a later time. If for example you drive and don't put your seatbelt on, then crash, and hurt yourself, people will judge your actions. I suggest they will have less compassion. I'll give you that

I suggest that conclusion is wrong. As such, I suggest you re-evaluation your position, and find one which allows for the US$ to become significantly cheaper when buying with gold. I think you are greatly under-estimating the change that is coming. I'm going to avoid getting into the philosophy discussion, as for me it's like looking up your own anus. Not very fruitful. And can also lead to equally stupid conclusions.

I think the new GEI header is relevant to this thread: I have little time for EW. Seeing that header "you can't prepare for both", I now have even less time for it. Oh, in case I'm not being clear. Yes you can. Gold.

Price is in the eye of the beholder Schaublin said: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=179701 First, thanks This is a great point, I'd like to write and think about as I write. I'm going to write from my point of view as someone living in NZ, and hopefully make an interesting story from it. I walk into Countdown, the NZ version of Tesco in England, only on an NZ scale, much smaller. I buy some cheese. It used to be about NZ$5 a kg (4 years ago), but now it's more like NZ$10 to NZ$12. I pay with cash, NZ Dollars, or I use a piece of plastic which takes NZ Dollars out of my account and puts it into the shop's account. So yes, the main currency of New Zealand is the NZ Dollar, no surprise there. And like everyone living here, I naturally use and think in terms of those NZ Dollars. Everything gets priced in NZ Dollars. But, unusually I suspect, I don't have my cash in an NZ$ account! I keep my cash in a JPY account, and transfer what I need for the next week or three into NZ$. This is because I expect a downward trend in the NZ$ versus the JPY, and interest rates are low, and I think the JPY will offer a better short-term store of wealth and cash for day to day spending. Now, I know that is probably very unusual, but there it is. So, should I think in terms of NZ Dollars, or in Japanese Yen? I should really think in terms of JPY, but I don't, I still think in terms of NZ Dollars. Being originally from England, I sometimes even convert back to Pounds!! But, if I want to buy something little more expensive than usual, I do take the exchange rate into consideration. I think "that camera will be cheaper if the exchange rate is lower". This shows that we have a local currency, the NZ Dollar, which tends to influence everyone's thinking here in NZ. Even me. Sure, a local economy will have local prices in the local currency, which tend to vary as local products and services do. The main influences will be wages, petrol prices, supply and demand etc. The price of local apples will go up and down, but wages will change more slowly. Now, suppose there is someone in England who wants to migrate here. And they want to buy a house here when they arrive. So they get on the internet and look at the property websites. They see prices in NZ Dollars. But, what do they think in? I bet they convert NZ$ back to GBP, and think in terms of that. So they don't see NZ$ house prices, they see GBP priced houses. And that price varies with local NZ prices and the exchange rate. Now, the exchange rate between the currencies becomes significant, and can vary the price they see far more quickly and dramatically than the local variations. The exchange rate variation moves the price around, and changes the demand from migrants. With our current monetary system, inflation (the increase in the amount of currency), is the norm. In fact it's openly stated as desirable. Deflation is dreaded. This means that long-term the amount of currency increases, and usually more quickly than the economy grows, leading to long-term price rises. So locally, here in NZ, we see prices rising from year to year. That's the normal thing. The problem is, by only using that metric, we don't see what people in other countries can see, like the price of NZ houses priced in GBP, and nobody in the world, each with their own local currency, can see what is happening to their currencies. They just see prices rising. Each possible method of pricing will have advantages and disadvantages, and will be influenced by a different set of factors. Pricing everything in terms of gold will have the following advantages: 1. It will include the devaluation of the currencies. 2. Over the very long-term, prices of things in gold stay roughly the same if no other factors change. Pricing everything in terms of gold will have the following disadvantages: 1. Short-term, fluctuations in the price of currencies will cause prices of local goods and services to vary, when in terms of the local currency they have not. Just like pricing NZ houses in GBP will vary. As I hope to show in the coming days, when you make that paradigm switch, and price everything in terms of gold, things become clearer, and it's possible to chart price changes more easily. The results are more clear. And most importantly, it's easy to compare prices which before were less obvious. For example the price of houses in NZ and England, because they are both priced in the same way, in oz of gold. The price that matters to someone will differ from the price that matters to someone else, like the NZ$ price of a house will matter to someone living here, and wanting to sell and buy things in NZ$, but the price in GBP will matter to someone in England wanting to buy an NZ house. The value of something matters to you if you have it or want it, and the price depends on what you're swapping it with. But, for a clear picture of worldwide prices, and in order to escape the blinkers of the fiat currencies, price everything in oz of gold.

Not at all. Some people like to be "bound" by rules or conventions. Many find religion makes them feel better, makes their inevitable death less scary. I have no problem with that, nor do I deride them for it. It's understandable. I simply contend that it's a man-made system, and limits thought to those concepts that fit within that system. I do find it fun watching people tie themselves in knots over a self-invented/created system though. It's almost like "what a tangled web we weave"...

This caught my eye when reading FOFOA's latest article: As I said before, judgement day is approaching, pick your side. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/08/two.html

I think Brights have more free will than the superstitious, who bind themselves with their own imaginary creations. The name "Brights" was chosen with care. It is supposed to be positive. For that reason I won't deride non-Brights by suggesting any label.

It's a little disappointing seeing people on here still thinking/talking in terms of "the gold price". If you stick in the modern misleading paradigm where all is based around fiat currencies, you'll also be stuck in a misleading thought process, IMO. Announcing the Steve Netwriter Gold Currency Index Version 1 (SNGCI v1) 19th Aug 2010 http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3303 (ID5, I've finally done it ) Those who say "that gold price prediction is ridiculous" are really saying "that prediction of how far the US$ etc can fall is ridiculous". I don't think so. Let's stop this "how far or fast gold is going up" discussion, and instead talk about "how far/fast the US$ etc are going to fall". By the way, did anyone spot this news: Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) will start trading gold futures with physical gold delivery on 31th Aug 2010 http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3298 Sounds significant to me.

That's pretty funny (and shows a misunderstanding) considering I'm a Bright: http://www.the-brights.net/

Or, how much money (gold) would you tie up in currencies? 16th Aug 2010, GoldUS$=1,217. Time is running out if the US$ is going to get up to 1,100 in August.

Judgement day is approaching, pick your side http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3280