Steve Netwriter

Well, I think unallocated should concern you, unless it's just a small percentage for gambling, and you can afford to lose it. "ETFs should not be owned by serious professional investors" - Ben Davies. The difference is significant, and IMO with allocatd physical you are on the side of sanity and fairness, and unallocated and paper gold, you are siding with the central banks and lies, scams, and unsustainability. You have to pick your side and be judged on it. I wasn't aware there were any strong currencies, only those less weak than others.

Seriously?

Nice I think I got it from Adrian of Bullion Vault, just to give credit where it's due

I'm not sure about timeframe. What I meant about disproved, is that so far no one has found fault with his theory. Note he is talking about GoldUS$ in today's US$. One can probably assume he expects a timescale of less than 15 years, but that is just my point of view. Have you changed your mind? Since it's broken the downtrend from June.

Sorry, missed a bit: Not for very long, no. The NZ$US$ exhcange rate might move by x% per year for 10 years, and be an exponential move. For those 10 years it would make sense to plot it on a log scale. Necessary if you draw straight line trend lines. But, one would not expect that movement in exchange rate to continue forever. It would appear to be unlikely! This is different to GoldUS$. The purchasing power of the US$ can decline by 7%/year with no limit, until it reaches zero This is most important if GoldUS$ were to change by 30%/year, and over a very short period you would see a curve.

This is why Albert Bartlett says "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function". I'll explain it very simply, as you can learn more elsewhere. 1. If a number (whatever it is, it could be a weight, and length, a price, an exchange rate) increases by a fixed percentage each period (say each year), then it will follow an exponential function. y = e ^ kt 2. If you plot that curve from time t0 to time t1, they being the starting and ending times, and you plot on a linear vertical scale from ymin to ymax, then the plot will be curved, an exponential. 3. What matters most are the period over which the curve is plotted and the rate of change. The higher the rate of change, the steeper the plotted curve will be. 4. Yes, if the rate of change is smal, and you plot over a few years, the line will be close to straight. But if you increase the rate of change, or extend the period of the plot, it will become more curved, and a linear plot with straight trend line drawn will be more erroneous. For more, please see this: Exponential Functions, Things that grow at x%, and Bounded and Unbounded Plotting of them by Steve Netwriter http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2944 and this one which appears to have been inspired by you! Exponenetial Function http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2889 Both Albert and Sal explain it better (and for longer) than I can in a short post. The first link shows that it appears to be difficult for people to grasp this. Go back to apples on trees and you can see more easily how it works. As you'll see, Chris Martenson was quite correct in the way he plotted his exponential curves, and in the implications he took from them.

Logarithmic :D

No it is not. FOFOA's freegold theory is very convincing, and has yet to be disproved. Other than cut/print/default how else can the US get out of its current predicament?

Hi warpig First, interesting post about the aircraft! It's always good to hear real on the ground experiences. The seasonal peaks seem to occur sometime between Jan and May. I think timing is the most difficult to predict, except in hindsight I wouldn't mind betting Jim's prediction will be a few months too early. But, if something else breaks, who knows. I only do this out of interest, for fun. My real view varies between this (note I did it a few years ago): and this from FOFOA:

Hi guys, I've been so busy recently, very little time to even check in here I have just done a quick update to my charts though, you may find it interesting. My prediction in a line: GoldUS$ maybe down to 1,100, then off to ... wait for it.... yes 1650 peak, before dropping back and consolidating. Gold G5 Index Chart with extra information http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3201

Konnichiwa, If the JP225 is acceptable, then go here: http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/ You have JP225 & some odd thing called XAUUSD You can overlay or do them relative. Use "Instrument" to get the first, then right click on the chart to add the 2nd. Since 2000, JP225 is up, down, up, down, up, down. XUA is.....up up up up

The Price of Apples Thanks for your replies guys. It's not a test, so I won't be marking your answers You get a better quality of reply on here than I would expect in many other places. I think it's a gold thing I did want to get you all thinking about stocks and flows though. The "stock" answer would be calculated like this: Stock = 100 apples. Money in existence = $500. If all the money "flowed into" the stock of apples, that would be $500 spread over 100 apples, or 500/100 = $5 per apple. That IMO is wrong The Flow answer would be calculated like this: There is nothing to eat or drink on the island, just apples. Only one fool is willing to sell his one apple for some dollars. That's potentially $500 trying to buy 1 apple. Maybe $500 per apple (on sale) is closer to the answer Why am I making this point? Of those who currently hold real physical allocated gold, how many are willing to sell? So what is the real supply? How much "money" might end up chasing that gold? Yes, ultimately, the only oz of gold for sale might be chased by all the "money" in existence!!!! So the maximum, theoretically, is quite high. Yes, in practice, if only 1oz of gold was for sale people would buy other things, but it is the basic concept I wanted to highlight.

You've gotta love Karl...bless him You may wish to "request new password", as there is a new members only economic area, which may stretch your mind further Or, you may wish to answer the question I think FOFOA might put his strategy slightly differently, or at least I would. Sell your financial assets, houses, stocks, currency - all of which are financial assets. Return to money - gold. Wait , and be prepared to be shocked. I notice no one answered my simple question about the maximum possible 'price' of gold. How about this one then. You are on an island, there are 100 apples. There is $500 in existence on the island. What is the maximum price of an apple? Answers please

Yes, probably the best one. I'm glad you like it. I'm sorry I appear not to have promoted it before

Is this the quietest bull in history? I'm listening, but I can't hear anyone making any noise about this. GoldUS$=1263.47 and SilverUS$=19.39, getting very close to "interesting" levels. Oh wait, I hear it now, the distant thunder of currencies collapsing around me ================ Someone asked about Another/FOA/FOFOA recently. I did look, and to my great surprise I couldn't find references to them in the notable threads list! Sorry about that. I've been posting about them for ages, I'm puzzled I haven't done that on here http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/forum/91 Here's FOFOA's latest: http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3053 I VERY STRONGLY suggest everyone read the recent few articles of FOFOA. I do believe many people have not quite the right idea about gold. For example, please, can someone tell me, what is the maximum 'price' of gold? Here are some numbers to work with, if that helps. Total world wealth in 2007 in 2000 US$ = 125.25 Trillion [1] Equivalent 2010 dollars = 125.25 TUS$ * 1.25 [2] = 156.56 TUS$ Total above ground gold = 158'000 metric tons [3]

RH, and others, you may be interested in the other NetDania facilities out there. I use the NetDania site itself, and I think you use goldprice.org ? I looked for others yesterday. Depending on your desires, you may find merit in the others. Specially the DailyFX one I've done some screenshots: http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/1350

I think FOFOA and Ender offer an interesting view: http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/08/confisca...erent-view.html I'm so impressed by the writings of FOFOA and 'predecessors', that I'm thinking of locking myself away and just reading and taking notes for all the writings. Just worried I miss "the event".

Exactly

IMO he's the sort of person who is likely to be wiped out. And it seems to be a very very common paradigm these days. The "trader paradigm". An extremely dangerous tactic in these times. I wonder whether he will be happy with his "US$ profits"

Jake, Confiscation was a question I had in my list that needed answering. You prompted me to go find out. http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2985 Cheers

Yes, but I'm not sure where! I think I wrote about land being the major contributor to house price rises. I'm not sure it was me who did land in oz of gold. Maybe GF ?

It's a little unclear to me at the moment. I see a few possibilities: 1. A change of trend line from the old 15% red to 20% blue. 2. A change back to somewhere between 15 and 20%. 3. A retracement back to the 15% red line. 4. A completely new trend at 50%, which is what it's been on since it left the 15% trend line, which is quite a long time. I'm a total convert to the G5 Index, IMO it paints a much clearer picture. I've ditched my old chart because of it. From here: Analysis of Gold Movements Using the New G5 Index (inspired by and for shuttle) by Steve Netwriter 27 May 2010 http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2920

Look at gold versus more than just the US$ for this year:

If/when I work it out, I'll let you know Predictions that vary from the current state by a large amount worry me. Not because I think they are wrong, but because I worry that the common man will be prevented from benefiting.

Quite.