Justin Thyme

Nice moves but if Citigroup fails or merges over the weekend, the CDS "market" will deem it a credit event. Lots of contracts to settle, hence a lot more forced-selling. Sadly, the US dollar party ain't over just yet . . . Having said that, money's coming out of treasuries today . . .

How long, I wonder, will it be before they're forced to choose between continuing to prop up their biggest customer and heading off an uprising among the swelling ranks of its unemployed ? $585bn is still but a quarter of their total foreign exchange reserves, and although a mere $1bn less than the economic stimulus package they revealed last week, methinks they'll not be dumping just yet.

Already done

Well at the rate that Citigroup stock is plunging and the TLT Ishares 20yr price is rising, there might be "life" in the dollar yet. There could be more forced-selling on the way . . .

You've GOT to be kidding !! Thank God I didn't buy last week . . .

Get on a plane, rock up to the bank, pick up yer bars, sling 'em on Ebay !

This might've been posted by someone else but if not, here's .

I think this is yet another of many "countdown to launch" events for goldbugs. I'm confident that our collective prudence with regard to precious metals will pay off but think that, come February, we may be looking at countless posts and links to articles which endeavour to explain how the hell the COMEX didn't default to go with the posts and articles trying to explain why gold didn't engage at warp 9.95 as Lehman Brothers collapsed. Hope I'm wrong though

erm . . . is this supposed to be happening ? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) --

Thanks so much, RH It seems easier to get comment and analysis on the pitfalls of synthetic CDOs these days than on more everyday fare like where to hold cash temporarily. Yeah a few people whose opinions on gold I respect, are expecting a leg down in the price but, indeed, sterling's taken on the mantle of whipping boy on a daily basis. I guess Yen or Yuan would be better but, sadly, GoldMoney don't offer those currencies in its conversion facility and seeing as it takes 3 days for transfers out of GM to reach my bank account, I reasoned that Dr. Bubb's bottoming in oil call would support the Loonie a helluva lot more than Mervyn King's platitudes can support the pound. Annoying thing is sterling lost C$0.05 against the Loonie yesterday

Indeed we can. No one willing to field my question ?

Had this on the FX thread but it doesn't get as much through traffic as this and as it pertains to gold, I thought I'd try and cheekily shoehorn it in here . . .

I'm thinking it might be worth converting my remaining sterling into CAD using GoldMoney's facility. If gold went to $550 - I'm not convinced it will - then I don't wanna be buying it with sterling. Oh, Mother England, what have you done ?

Lots of flip-flopping evident lately although I'm as guilty of it as the next guy. Frankly, as long as sterling continues its descent, I'm happy enough. My gold's doing its job !

Yeah but he says that gold might need to be at $2000/oz for that to happen

I can understand why you might think that. I've maintained my physical holdings and don't see a pressing reason to sell up just yet but I'm not averse to bailing out if the circumstances change sufficiently. I certainly acknowledge the nefarious influence of the COMEX on real gold prices because I've seen it for myself in the disparity between spot and bullion dealer prices but the notion that there are government moles infiltrating forums like this with mickey mouse TA to dissuade a few waverers from piling into PMs is laughable. Gold isn't performing as it ought to right now but that's not to say it won't. Still, as soon as the explanations offered for its underperformance start to sound more like the above, I'll be giving serious consideration to bailing out.

You're a brave individual buying into a market on the say-so of a "bloke on an internet messageboard". CGNAO is quality but I don't think he sets too much store by timing. His suggestions are - rightly or wrongly - driven by his sheer belief that the world's going to hell in a handbasket. I've learned to take all the TA charts and false dawns with the proverbial pinch. Frankly, I think that in this type of market, it's all bullshit. There've been all sorts of excuses put forward to explain gold's lacklustre performance since March. Sure, it's held up better than the rest of the commodity complex but, if all the waffle written by all the commentators since then was to be believed, gold really ought to be at $1200 right now. Very few, if any, saw the massive deflationary deleveraging and repatriation of dollars to the US although they beat the credit default swap implosion drum for all they were worth and fewer still are able to suggest how the deleveraging is going to fizzle out and mutate into the hyperinflation we've read so much about. If defaults on financial and corporate bonds are, by all accounts, set to mount over the coming months, won't banks and hedge funds keep selling assets and shorting PMs with the global central banks' blessing in order to raise dollars thereby prolonging the deflation that many here have sworn is merely a temporary phenomenon ?

This has caused me much consternation to be honest. It's been well documented on GEI that things are only going to get worse in the shadow banking system and as such, isn't it fair to say that, as long as counterparties are having to find cash to settle "un-netted" liabilities, the deleveraging is going to continue way into the future ? These guys can short sell gold to their heart's content and with the blessing of the central banks. Wouldn't a marked rise in the price of gold have to depend on a COMEX default ?

Have to agree with you wholeheartedly on that. Even though I bought into gold at around these sorts of levels over a year ago, I'd need about 20% more pounds to by an ounce which is great in one way but not so great in another cos I find myself in two minds about buying more now when there's a good chance we could have a fall in POG in the not-too-distant future but also a significant - and more likely - fall in the pound. Yes, I know the drill - average in but if the dollar resumes its long-overdue course back to the lavatory, the pound should appreciate again if only for a short time.

Those predictions are unsettling to say the least and the way things seem to be going in the markets these days, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold plummet to $500. Ok, I'm in physical but I really hope I don't need to get my hands on cash when gold's at that level Galling to say the least.

I think we may get a pullback on a 50bp cut but if it's 75 . . .

I reckon maybe investors think the Fed might cut by more than 50 basis points because they've had sight of the GDP figures for the 3rd quarter and they're a lot worse than the 0.5% widely expected but then again, it could be down to some of those repatriated dollars are making their way back into equities and commodities.

I've read disparaging remarks about this guy before and, just by chance, the othe other day I read a two part interview with him on, I think, SeekingAlpha. I didn't think what he was saying was that reprehensible. Ok there were one or two bits that I disagreed with but, overall, he appeared to offer a perspective on gold which was a refreshing departure from those of the shotgun-toting, bunker-bound goldbugs I've gotten used to reading. I think we'll all get what we're hoping for in terms of rising gold prices but I'd be willing to bet my G&S stash that any of us who bought in at $650-750 a year or so ago expected gold to be a damn sight higher than it is now given the prevailing macro-economics. Nadler, purely on the content of the interview I read, just seems very conservative and understandably wary of blind faith in the inevitability of $2000 gold.

That bloke from the World Gold Council says that any shortage of coins and selected bars is down to the spike in demand catching the mints unawares. Apparently these producers don't just run off loads of coins/bars and have 'em lying around on the shelf waiting for punters. Doesn't explain the disparity between COMEX and physical prices, though

Gold and silver bouncing like good 'uns at the moment . . . . $734 and $9.94