marceau

Not quite yet. We.... Just.... Need.... One.... More.... Dollar.....

Shorters last stand here I think. We could really pop if we cross $900. Even if we do drop back I'm betting it won't be far before we take another shot. Fingers crossed.

Broke $896 briefly. Oil looks good, euro massively strong. I'm adding. Edit:

If the PPT has any sense they'll hit gold here and create a double top, then we'll fall back into the lower $880s. If they don't stop it from getting past $896 then we'll go through $900 with ease and they'll probably lose control during next week's market. At the moment I'm still long with half the positions I bought earlier today. I'll only add once $896 is broken. I don't think we'll make it somehow, the cartel will probably put the boot in at just the wrong moment and mess it all up. Edit: The dollar's looking very sick indeed now. I think it's going to go towards 70 on the index in pretty short order.

I take it you mean the dollar? I believe that jump in the euro took it into vastly overbought territory, which will take quite a while to work off. After that the dollar will be back on course, a one-way trip direct to hell.

Shame gold doesn't appear to have the legs to go through $896 resistance. If it had we probably would have taken $910 and this correction would be formally dead. As it stands I'm pretty sure it's dead anyway, but there still remains the possibility of a dip to the $860s. I would say $850 is almost certainly out of the picture now. Usual rules now come back into play: 1. Buy the dips. 2. Don't buy strength. 3. Buy and hold. 4. Rake in the cash.

I guess the $130 bull trap isn't on then? Looks like it's trying to break its old highs. I just made some gold and silver buys on that last pullback.

Worst employment data for two decades apparently. The euro jumped almost 100 pips instantly on that news. The cat is well and truly out of the bag now, the Fed can't pretend that they can raise rates without the market jumping off a cliff. The only mystery is why PMs didn't respond better, I suppose the price had already been factored in through the rises seen earlier today. Time for some dip buying.

I'm inclined to agree, the 'v' seems to have gone in the opposite direction! I'll wait and see what the NFP data is like. Looks like oil is struggling at the $130 mark though. The rally from $122 was very quick and easy, could it have been a bull trap prior to drop towards $110?

Oil continuing to rise, anyone else think it may get ambushed at $130? Just a hunch, nothing I'm willing to put money on, but I think a downmove here would sting an awful lot of buyers very quickly. I also have a sneaking suspicion that NY will have a good go at gold today, it really is their final chance to paint the charts and get it below $850. I don't think it will work for long (if at all), so I'm planning on buying the 'v' today and holding for a nice run up through the $900 level.

Haha. Yes I love what happened there. Bernanke isn't the only one who can talk his currency up, the trick he used yesterday just got used against him (and I hope it hurts like hell). There's no more room for bluffing now, it's actions which will ultimately move the market. Not that I really believe that the ECB will raise rates, there in just as bad a bind as the Fed to be honest. It will be interesting to see who blinks first though. I'm firmly back in the bull camp now. Reality is returning from what I can see, and oh boy does it suck for the Fed. Edit: I'm still not ruling out a dip to $850 though. There still seems quite a good prospect of that in my opinion.

I think we're going to see $850 or below today or tomorrow, but not much lower than that. Gold's sell off over the past 2 months has been foreshadowing a dollar rally, now that appears to be here I personally think that gold will turn and begin to foreshadow the future again, a future where the dollar dives into oblivion. I'm set for some big buys over the next few days, core, speculative, the lot. It's just a question of at what level to pull the trigger.

The really funny thing is that this probably was totally unexpected for most professional analysts, media pundits and economists. They still think this is all just going to go away - what a bunch of halfwits.

I think PMs took a hit precisely because of that speech. We all know there isn't a cat in hell's chance that Bernanke will raise rates, but for the time being the market still seems to be buying in to all of his empty rhetoric (how many times can he cry wolf before the markets finally start to ignore him) and that, i'm afraid could spell short term trouble for gold, silver and particularly oil. Bullshit it may be, but the market seems to love it. The biggest mystery is why stocks held up so well, surely the prospect of Bernanke forcing a bit of interest rate 'cold turkey' should have sent them diving, but no. The market will use any excuse to bash commodities at the moment, but can't bear to look at the real problems facing the economy and their precious indices. The elephant in the room is still there and still growing.

Silver is truly deranged today, started selling off well before gold and has now gone in completely the opposite direction again. It's already recovered all of it's earlier losses and is still gaining ground, could it be about to do something special to the upside?

The miners have barely sold off at all. They certainly don't seem to believe today's drop is for real. I wish I could be as confident, I have a feeling we're going for $850 this week. Dry powder ready.

Hello all, I've been stuck without access to the internet for a few weeks and although I've managed to periodically keep track of gold I've been effectively out of the market during that period. I have to say it's been absolute torture! In a strange way it's nice to see gold pretty much back where it was when I left, it confirms my suspicion that it will be more profitable to trade PMs for the foreseeable future rather than buy and hold. On that front though I still think I'll continue to drip feeding into my core position on the pullbacks (I was lucky to miss drip the feeding into the surge over $900 over the last 2 weeks though ). As for where gold goes next, I'm pretty sure we'll get a brief bounce to the $900+ level and then restest $850. After that I'd say the balance of probability is towards a test of the 200dma (around the $830 level at the moment I believe). I honestly can't see gold dropping any further than that, but will stay on the lookout for clues as we get closer to those levels, if we get there too quickly I'll be fearing the worst and will save my cash for some potential sub $800 bargain hunting. Despite all of this I'm actually feeling more bullish now than at any time in the past 2 months, the buyers have been totally washed out of the market by the repeated false dawns, and the shorters have loaded up to the max in expectation of 'the big one'. That's a potent mix for rocket fuel in my opinion. Give it a couple of weeks and we'll be on our way back to $1000 for real, it just may not be as quick a journey as some people want it to be.

I'm certainly getting more bullish as time goes on, but I'm still 90% convinced we're going to get an eye-watering sell day before we start a sustainable uptrend. Where that sell takes us is the important thing, if the bears wait much longer I can't see it even getting to $850 to be honest, hence my comment that they were running out of time. I've waited patiently and avoided a fair few sell offs over the past month or so and I'm now confident that we are close enough to the end of this correction that I'm prepared to start adding to my core positions. I'm just doing it very slowly to avoid getting caught out by that monster drop I think is coming. Of course, while I've been waiting over this past month I've also managed to build a good cash pile and make some very good profits by trading, so I'm actually quite pleased with how this correction has worked out (so far). The core position is the key, once you have that in place and the price has moved well past your average, you can afford to be more adventurous with your strategies and less worried about short term drops or missing the boat on rises. On the less serious side, I couldn't help but chuckle at what must have been going through the heads of the shorts as gold did that $20 moon shot. I'm guessing a few sets of underpants took a beating today.

Wow, what a rollercoaster today, a trader's dream and one of my most profitable days ever. I'm betting the little guy got hit hard though, which is unfortunate, but it's nice to see gold really get volatile (and perversely, more predictable). I'm still neutral on my trading stance (and liking the flexibility that's giving me at the moment), with a long core position. I'm certainly not looking to change for the time being, as I think it's going to be a trader's market for a while, but I have to say I think time's running out for the bears, so I'm starting to drip feed small purchases for my core position on good dips. I would say I'm a full-on bull again, but I can't escape the feeling that we're going to get a 'shock and awe' drop at some point in the next few weeks before we start back on the road to the highs. Today just reinforced that opinion for me, the market's bucking like a bronco and doesn't look like it's going to make life easy for those without deep pockets and deep patience.

It is, but I'm still not sure. Gold is starting to irritate me to be honest, it's just pissing around trying to shake off the small guy at the moment and I don't like that because it makes things even harder to call than they normally are. I can see it going one of two ways, obviously that's up or down. But seriously, if the bears reassert themselves over the next week we're going to go back down to the $850 level and below. Whereas if the bulls can keep this going all I can see is more of this irritating grind upwards with periodic shakedowns, then at somepoint a big shakedown will occur and all the 'geniuses' who think they're awesome traders just because they've managed to spot an obvious uptrend channel will get their shirts taken. I guess that still makes me a short term bear, but it's hard to have conviction about anything in this market at the moment so I'll just have to say I'm short term neutral. What a pain in the ass.

Phew that was close, we just held inside the trend channel. If we'd dropped below $870 there I think we could have been in trouble. For now it looks like consolidation with a good possibility of an assault at $900 next week. However, if we break below that $870 level then look out below. Anyone else think oil could be getting close to a short term top?

Still way too early to count your chickens, I'd save that until after we've gone over $900 decisively. It's easy to lose perspective when you concentrate on the short term, a quick look at the long term charts really puts this week's rises into context. We've fallen so far that we have to get some massive updays to undo the damage, we may well get one tomorrow, but even if we do we'll still need far more to ensure the bears don't seize back control. A technical uptrend against falls of that size can be overturned in an instant and we can restest the lows, an annoyance if we're at $870, a tragedy if we're at $940. Today's action only really tells us that we should get an attempt at $900, you can't draw any conclusion further than that. Yes, the fundamentals we believe in support us. But they haven't helped much over the past month so there's no guarantee that they'll help in the next month. All I'm doing is urging caution, quite often the safety nets we see in the market only exist in our own heads.

An important day coming tomorrow, I'm sure there is going to be an attempt at $900 following today's action (which I thought was really very impressive). If we can get there and hold till the close we'll be set to kill this stupid correction off once and for all. I'll be watching tomorrow's trading like a hawk, if we get a close above $900 I'm pretty sure I'll be jumping back in with both feet. However.... If we fail below $900, or worse still at resistance around $895 then we're set up for another swan dive. If we don't bother with a push up tomorrow and fall back down towards $874-$865 then I'm guessing we'll consolidate for a short while before another go at the high $800s, but it really could swing either way. I haven't decided on my strategy for tomorrow yet, but I'm sure it will keep me awake tonight. In the meantime I do have a small long in place at $875, so if gold does really rocket I won't completely miss out. Just one more day of rises and I can be a full on bull again!

I know, was really impressive, the first genuinely positive thing I've seen gold do for ages. I honestly thought gold was going to plunge earlier, it was perfectly set up for a fall through $850. Gold is also doing the running on its own at the moment, oil and the euro aren't moving, could be seen as dangerous but I actually think it could be positive. I'm still going to be cautious until I can better determine the trend.

It looked to me like we just bounced down off a trend line at $874 and validated a new downtrend. If so it could be another bad day for gold in NY, possibly another test of $850 or below. Be careful.