marceau

Agreed, this is yet another time bomb ticking close to zero. To be honest at present they are arguing from a position of strength, as for the New Labour morons to deny them would lead to an even bigger economic headache in the short term. I bet the average public sector union head is thinking they can get away with murder at the moment. The problem for them is that the reality of their position is much more tenous than they realise. In terms of productivity and value most of the public sector are already vastly overpaid and overprotected. Once the private world starts the layoffs in earnest demand for public sector jobs will rise dramatically and the government will be in a far better position to dictate terms. The clever unions probably realise this and are trying to scoff what they can from the trough before farmer Brown stops dishing out slops. The dumb unions who take things to far will suffer on an epic scale as the true deflationary bust part of this crisis plays out (that's if there are any left after the hyperinflationary holocaust, of course).

I think $950 is very possible but other options shouldn't be ruled out. The current economic situation is so extreme I'm surprised TA is even usable any more, but it still is (for the time being). Once the market wakes up from it's stupor and cottons on to just how big this whole mess is, you can throw your TA books out the window. If you already have physical metals, you don't need to rush in to buying. Why not start drip feeding in small amounts of that £10-15k into coins each week. That way if we do get a nosedive to $950 or below, you will have a lot of dry powder to make a bigger buy. If gold continues to rise, you won't have lost anything, and can reassess the speed at which you drip feed dependant on the circumstances. I'm sure $950 looks a long way away at the monent to many, but we can reach that level in days in my opinion. The problem for most people is that when we do drop down there, they are afraid to buy as the support appears too shaky when it's close. Of course, you could always consider gold and silver mining shares, many of which are lagging the physical price very badly and have a lot of catching up to do. There are some excellent picks in the mining section of this site which can easily be purchased through UK brokers. Over half of my most recent set of buys (when gold was in the $910-20 range) were actually gold and silver miners or royalty companies, some of these were at true bargain basement prices (SLW for under $13.50 ) and although they have moved up, they still represent great potential for gains with minimal downside.

Probably, maybe Bubb or someone else on here knows. I always find volume info suspect on an intraday basis anyway and don't like to make big investment decisions based on anything but reliable data. I use basic TA and fundamentals for short term trades and don't look at volume at all. In the case of gold I'd like to see the low $950s now. A move down on low volume will make an entry a fairly safe bet. Always be aware that volume can show up at support/resistance and smash the small guy flat. Entering close to support with a stop a little way below can prevent quite a bit of pain in these circumstances. However. Please, please, please don't short term trade based on my posts, learn the basics for yourself. If it all goes wrong you can guarantee I won't be on here posting guidance, I'll be too busy trying to fix my own positions. The stuff I put on here is about exploiting medium term trends, not day trading. Just a general message, not directed at you Gatesy. I'd hate for anyone to lose money based on advice from a bloke on the internet. I drip feed physical purchases just like everyone else and that is one of the safest ways to gain protection from the disasters inflicted upon us by the idiots in charge. I don't generally buy into the armageddon theories, but some of the news this past week has genuinely scared me. I already have quite a large holding of physical gold and silver, but I'll be doubling my monthly purchases from here on in. I don't want to be the guy left holding a fortune in paper promises I can't collect without having some kind of consolation prize.

Check the volume after trading is over, the info is available all over the internet for free, this will also allow you to make a clear headed assessment once the dust has settled. I find ETFs a good info source but don't hold them, there's something about their governance which smells distinctly fishy.

Spot on assessment bigt. It won't be long now.

I'm not sure. I want a better entry point to be honest. Today's NY close may offer a few more clues so I'll hold off until tomorrow before making any decisions. We've had a euphoric run-up, but once fear takes hold the falls can be sharp and brutal. But don't lose perspective, they will only wipe out a few days gains. Be ready to buy once the volume dries up.

I think the current drop kind of proves my point. Edit: Hadn't looked at oil. Down over $7 on my screen. What the hell caused that?

That's generally how the market gets you. Makes it look like it will never pull back and forces you to get in too high. Just as you do a smackdown miraculously appears and you end up far underwater. Then the market moves down a little further, making you believe that the upmove was a fake and that the next fall will be massive - so you sell. Then you get an explosive upmove. Don't fall into the trap, don't buy strength. This is why you need to build core positions during the corrections, you can just sit back and wait for the big drops without any fear of missing out. I sold almost all of my speculative longs this morning, just leaving my core and physical holdings. I'm ready for the market to pullaway further, it won't bother me as I'll still be making profit. I'm also ready for the market to make a dramatic pullback, where I'll start making more speculative buys in expectation of the uptrend continuing. Buying those NY trading session bloodbaths makes money, that's the bottom line.

The only TA you need to use here is buying the pullbacks. Gold is trending and has a very high probability of erasing your mistakes. Just don't buy strength and wait for a pullback to support. I agree that these are unusual times, but most of the market still either hasn't spotted or accepted the danger, so gold and silver are still open to counter-intuative moves. These moves will provide some 'golden' entry opportunities.

Why is it every time gold goes crazy I get stuck away from a computer? Anyway, having been without computer access for the past three weeks I can finally post again and it's nice to be able to say that the path for gold is totally clear. The downtrend was broken, we've formed a new uptrend channel and the good old dollar is sinking into oblivion, and it feels great. I've spent most of the past few weeks placing buy orders around the $911-$920 level in anything gold (with a few little side punts in the low-mid $1700s for silver). Almost all of which were filled. Needless to say last week paid off very well for me, so I've lightened up on a number of positions in order to book some profits, the rest I'm hanging on to for the pretty inevitable march back to the old highs. As far as I'm concerned the correction is dead, and with news like ol' helicopter Bernanke's Fannie and Freddy bailout around gold won't remain in triple digits for long. I am kind of expecting some kind of counter-intuitive reaction to the bail out news though and would expect gold to take another fishing line drop early this week. If it does I'll be buying heavily and holding, if the uptrend is good it will take care of any minor timing errors pretty quickly, and so long as people avoid buying strength I think there is some very easy money to be made in gold over the coming months. I'm looking at anything below $950 as a gift now, the trick will be to stay brave and make those buys after we drop $15-20 in a heartbeat to get there. BTW great posts over the last few weeks guys, it's nice to be back in such esteemed company.

Rates unchanged and a very woolly statement with a miniscule (and I do mean miniscule) hint of hawkishness. I think we could get some good upside in gold and silver here. One dissenter on the FOMC who called for higher rates, I guess he'll be silenced when the markets continue to drop over the next 2 months. Edit: The more I read the statement the more of a bottle-out it looks. I think it effectively says 'we don't know what the hell to do'. Nice rally in silver, I bought some at $16.59, sold at $16.75, so it has been a profitable day after all.

This is looking ugly now, but it's being driven by pure fear so may not have much further to run. If we break $876 there'll be more downside (although I'm not convinced it will be much more), but if we bounce off $876 we could get a nice rally. The Fed could drop things further, but we all know that they're just going to talk without any action, so buying on a dip created by their jawboning seems like a good bet to me.

Silver could be a very good buy here, it's been thrown on the floor like no-one wants it. But you'd have to be very brave to go long right now. I suppose that's where the profit is, buying when everyone else is fearful. I have a long from $16.69 and I'm wondering whether to hold onto it or sell out now just in case. I'm pretty sure PMs are going to take a knock today, and even if it's only for a very short time that still means I could be able to buy back lower. Edit: Just sold at $16.76. I believe the market will react in a manner negative to gold whatever the Fed says. I'm on standby to buy the dip (if it happens).

Well, it's FOMC day. What does everyone predict? My bet is no changes to the base rate, a load of stealth liquidity measures and an even bigger load of nonsensical woolly jawboning about keeping an eye on inflation (without saying they'll actually raise rates). Of course the market, being stupid, will probably buy the DOW AND sell oil and gold in moves which run completely contrary to each other. They just won't be able to shake that reality-defying optimism that the Fed has it all under control.

Hilarious, anyone who could not see this coming was, let's be fair here, a complete gimp. I'm leaning towards 50% nominal too. But if someone decides to pull the plug on inflation (very unlikely for a long time yet), then all bets are off for property.

It is not the size of the fall which was the problem, but the nature and speed of it. Gold was looking set for a breakout and test of $920-30, yes it was to be expected that there would be a pullback, but for gold to drop that far in just 20 minutes without so much as even pausing at support was, as I said, one of the strangest things I've seen in gold in a long time. I've also been 'in' gold for many years, and believe me I'm used to big drops and big rises. But I've never seen a selling streak run quite as contrary to market signals as today's. Assets do not normally drop that far back from key resistance without at least stopping at support to sucker in more buyers. That leads me to the conclusion that something truly unusual happened today. As for what that was, I've already speculated in an earlier post, so I won't repeat myself, but there is a chance that today's move signals something significant happening to the gold market. I don't believe that is the case, so I bought, as usual, shortly after the end of the pullback. Time will tell, but I'm not going to get to blase about gold's prospects. I've been urging caution on here for the best part of 3 months now and I see no reason to stop at the present time. Traders who've bought blindly on every rise so far will have lost quite a bit of money since April and I've no intention of becoming one of them. Yes, I'm bullish, but not reckless, I would advise those playing short or medium term strategies to carefully consider their moves over the next week or so.

I honestly don't know what happened today in gold and silver, and I suspect that only way we'll find out if the move was fluff or substance is to wait and see what comes next. Only the market's action over the next few days will give clues as to what really went on. On the subject of margin though, the requirements for players both big and small have been creeping up for the last few months. Couple that with the high LIBOR rate and you have a very sticky situation for a firm caught with big leverage on the wrong side of a trade.

I do hope so, and I've gone long a number of contracts again today. But that drop was just stunning, so totally unnatural. I'd expected a pullback and was ready to buy at around the $990 and $885 levels, but for gold to plunge through support without even a pause means a massive, massive seller just hit the market. I agree with what goldfinger said in that they were either too stupid to cover their tracks or had been forced into selling, but there is of course another option - that the seller had already built their short position and was purposefully revealing their hand to the market. I really hope this last option wasn't the case or gold is really going to tank over the next month or so. Personally I think it was forced selling, no sane big money player would dump gold under these economic circumstances, but today's closing level really is crucial to gold's medium term future.

Just logged in to my account and what the hell? I can't see any reason for this sell-off at all. I mean, the euro dropped but not THAT far, and oil is up on the day and threatening to go for $140. All in all this has to be the most bonkers move I've seen in gold in ages. You just don't get a $25 plunge in a matter of minutes for no reason. I'm buying again, but I have to say my confidence is totally shot to pieces. It seems you just can't win in gold at the moment. Never mind, at least I wasn't in heavily at the top.

Gold should be breaking out right now given the sorry state of the dollar today. I'm adding to positions now, just because it's a friday doesn't mean gold can't rise. If we pop through $910, the rally should give us another $10-20. I'm willing to risk a bit to get part of that action. I'll hold as long as we hold $898.

I like gold here, it has one more piece of work to do (cross $910) before the charts open up for a substantial rally. The charts look very bullish to me, so I'll be adding on pullbacks from here on in (I added a long at $896 yesterday). I don't think we'll get a selloff today, the dips are being bought and support seems to be holding quite well. Plus we broke above that downtrend line and managed to stay there. It's all lining up quite nicely, so my dry powder is ready for use.

I'm still holding my long in silver, it's a tiny position and won't cause me any sleepless nights. As for a pullback, I'm not convinced, there's such a huge amount of doom and gloom still around on gold from normally bullish sources. It begs the question - what exactly do you want gold to do? It's risen the best part of $40 in the last 5 days. Now it has a $10 pullback from acknowledged strong resistance and all of the talk is of another massive sell off. I think some folks are just trying to be too clever at the moment, to me this is the time to start looking at making medium term buys, not look at selling or worse still shorting. I may place a small long at $896 should we get back there today. Tomorrow I may hedge my position with a protective short just in case NY decides to do what everyone thinks is inevitable and sells off. Yes, we didn't break $910, yes we won't close over $900. But if either of those had been achieved it just would have made life too easy for the longs. There has to be an element of doubt in order for there to be new buyers when that doubt is resolved. And besides, where will that downside take us? To $860, $850? Maybe even $840, how terrifying. The 200 dma now sits around $860, so if we drop to $850 or $840 the buyers are likely to swarm in. Admittedly now isn't the time to be piling in with huge leverage, but if you believe in the gold bull you have to take the view that the downside is now fairly limited compared to the upside. So placing careful medium term buys over the next week or two seems pretty sensible to me.

Gold just broke through that selling at $906, I'm optimistic for that test on $18 silver now. If we break $910 gold then I'll be buying again.

Not sure what to make of oil there. Maybe a delayed reaction to the increase in middle east supply? I smell a rat, though I'm not prepared to trade on it. Gold looking very strong at the moment considering the positions of oil and the euro. You can almost guarantee that everyone thinks this is a bull trap of some sort, if we can hold $900 until the close then I predict a lot of singed shorterz tomorrow. Edit: There seems to be some big selling at $906, if that can be broken then we'll get a proper shot at $910.

Back over $905, let's see if it can hold and show some strength. Edit: No.