marceau

The cycle is dependent on behaviour and affordability, not time. Previous cycles matched because they were not subject to government intervention. Critically this intervention can only delay the reckoning and change behaviour, it does not fix the affordability problem. I can see the case for the US bottoming being in 2014, but reaching the bottom of the UK cycle will take much, much longer IMO. Real or nominal, we haven't even really started yet - and that's coming from someone who now has had a 5-fold increase in house purchasing power thanks to gold.

Fingers crossed that this will finally get the miners to move.

Exchange it for a house, land, a farm, a gold plated speedboat (my personal choice), whatever. It will give you a hell of a lot more options than a load of banknotes (paper or digital) will. I do buy into the idea that there will be heavy capital gains taxes levied, but the preceding collapse will also deeply impair the ability of the authorities to collect them. Black markets aren't the dishonest thieving pits people make them out to be, otherwise people wouldn't use them and they would never become established in the first place. Those who think otherwise have swallowed the statist propaganda hook line and sinker. After all, no one can safely run a market but the state, right?

Really? Despite the fact that the chart is complete hokum, if you were to draw a conclusion from it I think the best one would be that every time the debt limit has been raised in the last 5 years gold falls dramatically THEN rises to the new ceiling. I'll make it simple, do you see where the little black line move upwards? That's the debt ceiling being raised. Do you also see the little red line move down when the little black line moves up, that's gold falling. QED. Guess what gents, I'm pro gold. Although I guess I now fall into heretic category for making a simple observation on a chart. The level of defensiveness on here is hysterical sometimes.

That chart says there will be a monster correction first.

Was checking some share prices earlier and almost choked when I saw ECU silver had closed up 2677%. Typo sadly, but if any ECU holders do want to pretend they're now rich beyond their wildest dreams, please follow the link: If only.....

After all those rises we're still roughly at a house price /gold 2 for 1 deal. IMO this crisis is far bigger than anything we saw in the 70s or 80s, so I'd like to think the lows on the ratio will be taken out. Anyway, here's another article from the gold experts in the MSM. Nice to see her immediately lay her cards on the table with the 'fact' that oil prices are unsustainable at $120. I can't believe she gets paid to write this stuff.

One of the few friends of mine who know I own gold brought the subject up in conversion yesterday, completely unprompted. Don't think he was too happy when I told him that his interest was one of my indicators that a correction was due. He was intrigued by the method, so I told him that he was only a correction indicator and, unlike others, he was not a 'begin selling' or 'final top' indicator. Then I realised I'd said too much already and had to find an excuse to leave. It's like the matrix - you can't save those wired in to the system, but they can still be useful.

It's hard to be anything else given the (admittedly paper) profits most here have made. I do worry for recent buyers though, a significant correction is bound to come at some point.

I'm not convinced about gold staying permanently that close to the eventual highs, although if I can get within 20% I'll be more than happy. Even if it does plateau there's bound to be more profitable places to park your wealth by that point, otherwise gold would still be rising!

Not sure what to make of your tone, but there will be much more money made or lost as a result of timing your exit from gold than there ever was entering it. The exit point is years off yet, but regardless of how much I've made (bought in 2003 to give you some idea) I know I'll be sweating on when to jump ship. The exit decision is crucial, much in the same way that jumping out of property too soon cost many smart people tens of thousands of pounds.

That's going to be an unfortunate part of the deal in the next phase. We'll lose that comfortable feeling being ahead of the herd, and will have to run with it for a while (or for some considerable time, if previously asset craze trends are duplicated). All the shills, chancers, opportunists and liars have been jumping on board for months and it'll only get worse. Listening to them makes me sick, but staying with them will make me money. I'm willing to hold my nose if it'll mean benefiting from a phase 3 bull rally.

Fingers crossed for a head & shoulders.

That's the first economic video to actually make me laugh out loud. A truly comic reaction - a look that combined terror, desperation and a hint of indignation. Loved it.

Happy to oblige... Looks like we have lift off. IF we hold to the close then I reckon we'll get another $100 on top by the end of the week. Feels good.

We'll almost certainly retest the dollar highs in the next couple of days, then it gets interesting.

I'd agree with this, we simply haven't seen any sustained selling pressure in gold over the past couple of years - as with the S&P, all dips were quickly bought. For me, the key question is - where's the fear? IMO the sooner we get a good multi-month wash out the better. As I said earlier this year I seriously doubt it will be caused by the current QE situation (if it's already known it can't move the market), but it will come eventually. This will be a good thing, hot money is fickle and needs wringing out from time to time, otherwise you can't see where the real price support is. Besides, I need more gold in order to install a mono-rail in my hollowed out volcano home......

Yeah I've spent a bit of time there. Lovely place, relaxed way of life, cows in people's back gardens. But you have to accept the fact that you're literally in the middle of nowhere and, more importantly, each island is headed up by a small elite of wealthy Portuguese families who have massive power and influence. Fall out with them and you're going to have a very, very hard time.

Yep, gold in GBP has stayed annoyingly expensive, the $ drops have barely registered in turdling.

Indeed. He's clearly not smarter than the average bear.

BBC news says gold in bubble: BBC - impoverishing the masses since 1922 Everyone sell NOW. Get into property, banking stocks and government bonds before it's too late!

I hadn't seen that in years, brilliant. Thanks for putting it up.

Yeah, that's another problem, government taking something profitable and strangling it. They really never learn, do they? The difference with farmland is that we already have draconian EU policy, so this may be as bad as it gets, short of full nationalisation (and I doubt any western governement would have the stomach to do that, given the consistent historical record of such actions - deaths in the millions).

My response would be pretty much what Victor said, farming looks like it's at the bottom of it's cycle. From what I can see agriculture is in an unusually depressed state and prices would be at historic lows were it not for the effects of speculation on land values. There will be nothing but upwards pressure on real food prices (funny money regardless) over the long term. Factor in the inflationary path we've taken an farmland looks like a good bet, it'll be hard not to make money against a backdrop of rising prices. My main concern is when to buy. If, as I've assumed, farmland has been affected by general speculative trends, it may become cheaper still over the next 5 years. The problem is that it's already being treated as if it was 'gold with a yield', so prices may never take that dip that I'm looking for. At the moment I prefer uranium, it's just had a once in a lifetime haircut and (you'll have heard this before) none of the reasons I wanted to invest in it in the first place have changed. Other than the usual physical PMs, almost all of my purchases this year have been (and will probably continue to be) uranium miners.

Almost certain on dow/gold going far beyond 1:1. I can see at time where equities will be hit by a long lasting (govt bailouts will no longer be an option) double whammy: no yield as companies scrap divis to survive, and an impossible to calculate NAV due to false accounting and currency choas. Many firms will struggle to prove they have any value as an asset whatsoever, and this will drag down all equities (commodities aside) regardless of quality. I see DOW:gold going to 2 or even 3:1. Also pretty sure housing will go lower than 50 gold ounces for similar reasons, but it may take a couple of decades to get there. As for silver:anything - not a clue, can't figure the damn stuff out. All I know for sure is that 1000 ounce bars take up an awful lot of space.