marceau
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Posts posted by marceau
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Nice price action in gold but it appears to be happening on weak volume according to GLD chart.
Agreed, I couldn't trade this with any confidence. Triangle breakouts can do a 'pump and dump' false upmove before plunging. I believe this very thing happened to gold last Aug/Sep.
A 'be careful' to the traders here (glad I'm not one of them).
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It's not possible, not politically practical. There is no real way around hyperinflation. King must know this.
Imagine all these BTLers, FTBers etc. dangling over the Property Precipice at 15%!
Nice image, I will sleep with a smile on my face tonight.
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POG seems to be holding firm in the face of the equity sell off today.
It'll be interesting if it can contiune to hold during a big selloff - may reflect the reduced leverage that the big selloff last year has caused?
Let's hope so. Even so I dumped a lot of PM stocks last week. Although I still have my physical I can't help but feel we're going to take a real beating between now and Christmas.
Fingers crossed I'm wrong.
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The psychology is still alive and kicking in NZ and Australia.... will take some time to kill it off. A generation has known no different, yet a little perusal of history in that department would have told anyone curious that it was not the norm but an anomaly. Then again, greed has a way of blinkering people.
If you can't expand credit, you can't expand house prices. Simple as that, despite what Gordon and badger (and Rudd) say.
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Look, the USD is collapsing!
Silver it seems is one of the main beneficiaries (+3.2%)!!
GBP/USD 1.6720 and climbing. ... wow... someone carpet bombed the USD!
USDX dipped to 78.40 region.
Denninger seems to think it was a direct result of today's GDP figures. With the bond and FX guys making some big bets on not only the validity of the data to the health of the economy, but also the Fed's future direction.
Of course, pretty much everyone on here knew what the Fed would do a long time ago - take the easy way out and debase. Now they've seen the fruits of their fraud show up in the GDP stats, they're bound to press on with monetisation (after all, it must 'work' because the GDP figures said so). And so the madness begins.
This should mean gold up, dollar down in a big way. But you never know, we could get a bout of deleveraging mania first (I for one don't think that's too likely now).
Anyway, wherever the big move is going to take us, I think it starts here. A bit of a retrace and then we begin to grind out a trend, by the time Sep / Oct roll around, we hit widespread realisation of the direction and the move kicks into gear.
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If THIS ISN'T it, then what IS IT??
Only because IT is so BIG and protracted that you can't see it, doesn't mean it isn't it.
I can see 'it'. But Sinclair's 'right here, right now' comments do nothing but lure people into leverage and rash decisions.
Those who could see 'it' have already taken their positions. Panic-making posts from Mineset add nothing to the rational case for owning gold.
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Sounds fanciful more like...
Sinclair is like a deranged pit canary. I agree with a buy and hold strategy, but I've lost count of the number of THIS IS IT cry wolf comments he's made in the last few years.
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My god, what a collapse. Medium term that looks set to go sub-100,000 for sure.
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I can see some sense in what you're saying bigt, esp. with regard to the 'fear factor' gold buying driver seemingly subsiding. However, I note that the 08 spike was not particularly accompanied by high VIX. Also, there are big unkowns going forward here with regard to Chinese gold buying appetite.
imho, the greatest factor contributing to further declines in pog (short-term) are another strong DOW rally. Therefore, (for me) the question is, what is the prospect of a further strong DOW rally?
Idiocy could drive the DOW rally beyond all reasonable levels - and I'm seeing idiocy all over the place at the moment.
All it takes is one more DOW upsurge and the 'dead cat bounce' predictors will be completely dismissed, then it could be months before we return to reality.
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I am thinking we are at a crossroads here:
As are the rest of the markets. I really hope the wrong conclusions weren't drawn from the G20, if they were then gold will be in a world of pain over the next few months.
Fingers crossed that we break out of the downward channel, but I have a funny feeling the falls will continue.
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irelands new budget has this interesting snippet
http://www.budget.gov.ie/2009SupApril09/Su...icyChanges.html
Some of the announced cuts are brutal. I think the overall result of this will be positive, everything I see here will wring speculative excess out of all aspects of Irish markets. The problem is that the speculative excess is so big that the short term pain is going to be absolutely monumental.
Tough times ahead, and a sign of what is to come for the rest of us.
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? On CID they were the cheapest option when I bought recently (cheaper than any other 1oz coin or a 1kg bar).
They are the cheapest, but over £700 for an eagle is 20% over spot. That's pretty hard to justify when the gold price is this high.
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I think we've already hit the tradeable bounce at $874 (just above the 200dma). I missed the trade and won't enter now, if we break through $870 gold could be in a lot of trouble and I don't see much support below. I also can't help but feel we're going to see one of those monster 'fishing lines' at some point.
Sentiment is not good - and at the moment sentiment is everything.
$864 - ouch. This looks like it could keep going - damn G20 spinnerz.
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No
Sentiment is good, and at the moment sentiment is the only thing there is!
But it might be about to turn.
You can only stay high for so long, then you just have to come back down to earth
(of course I'm talking about the markets)
You're absolutely right, but of course the market can 'run on air' for an incredibly long period of time. Like a dumb dog they'll chase the stick every time the government throws it.
Gold has dropped quite dramatically in Turdling, looking at bullion I'm actually quite tempted by some of the prices on offer. I'll just have to shake it out of my system by staring at my stash for a while - it's soooo shiny.
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Yes, imo whether or not you buy here or wait depends I guess on what percentage of your worth you already have in bullion. With a core bullion position of 50%, I am in no hurry to buy.
Ditto. I'm more than happy to wait for the big one. Chasing markets now will lead to even more heartache than usual.
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Gold outperformed cash ISAs, property and shares over last 10 years
And STILL 99% of people won't even consider it as an investment. All thanks to the power of the MSM - impoverishing readers and viewers since time began.
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At what levels are people thinking of buying at? pog is now at 876, not far off the 200mda. Very tempted to wait for even lower prices.
I think we've already hit the tradeable bounce at $874 (just above the 200dma). I missed the trade and won't enter now, if we break through $870 gold could be in a lot of trouble and I don't see much support below. I also can't help but feel we're going to see one of those monster 'fishing lines' at some point.
Sentiment is not good - and at the moment sentiment is everything.
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Quite brilliant.
Am I the only one who is already fed up with hearing Obama ?
It's just spin and rubbish. I just don't listen.
Count me in on that, probably along with everyone else with more than half a brain.
I can't imagine the level of disillusionment that will be around when he is exposed as no more the solution to the USA's problems than his predecessor was. There's just no integrity there.
Still, his downfall will do two positive things - peel more liberals and floating voters away from the socialist left (which will become increasingly militant and 'Soviet' in tone once existing socialist policies fail) and greatly add to society's gradual (and painful) reintroduction to reality.
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Good grief, I just spent a while browsing today's papers. There's rabid 'green shoots' news all over them, everything from house prices to a Chinese recovery.
Looks like reality is about to take a longer holiday than I'd first envisaged - and that won't be good for gold. The Daily Reckoning has this one nailed - the crash will be a long, slow and painful re-education and will keep going until no-one who believes in the bullsh*t has any money or hope left.
Thank god it's the weekend - I need a beer.
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Something tells me we may be about to see a big drop in gold measured in Turdling, the charts look set for it and the (delusional) newsflow seems to be pointing in that direction. I have been (incorrectly, so far) bearish on gold all year, the rally simply hasn't convinced me, but I'm keeping an open mind.
IMF sales news may be a total red herring in real terms, but it does have the power to move markets. I think there could be a bumper gold buying opportunity coming up over the summer, maybe the last true buying period before we move into the mania phase and prices move too fast to make sensible purchases.
This could be the last time governments appear to be in control of the system. They may have bought themselves a few more months of confidence, but if they fail this time it really will be game over. The sad truth is that they WILL fail and when they do I definately want a piece of the action, so I'm still building cash and still waiting.
Western governments are leaving themselves far too exposed through their actions, someone is bound to take advantage eventually. I don't care who it is, so long as I can hang onto their coat tails. What a patriot I am, eh?
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The worst thing is, if I hadn't seen it last time, I might have been a sucker this time. Who knows?
Look on the bright side, this bounce will expose a whole new raft of suckers and idiots who you can now choose to never trust with business (or anything else for that matter) again.
Anyone too dull to see this coming is certainly too inept to deal with me in any professional capacity (unless I'm actively exploiting their stupidity). The silver lining is that you can finally spot genuinely productive and valuable individuals and organisations, rather than the usual sophist or apparatchik (definately the word of the year - thanks Hannan) leeches who have managed to hide poor performance for so long.
Once this is eventually over, finding good business and investment will be a piece of cake - they will be the only ones left standing.
Nothing Brown-turn, Geithner or anyone else can do will change this. It looks like they may be able to buy a couple more years of plate-spinning at the expense of raising those plates to ever-more precarious heights. Fine - it just gives me more time to position myself for the inevitably hideous end game - roll on the rate rises.
EDIT:
As an aside, one of my rules for investing in gold was to stop when real positive interest rates returned (ie - above the real rate of inflation). I get the feeling that may now only be a couple of years away. It would be interesting to see some discussion on here of how to play forthcoming events. There will be a moment to switch out of gold (I know some on here won't like this, but I have no intention of becoming a gold-plated martyr), I have my ideas on how to do it, but would like to hear from others.
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We often compare the current gold market with the 1970s-1980s. Does anyone know of a resource that describes in detail the events that caused the gold spike in 1980?
The silver spike was down to the Hunt brothers and some select friends, not sure how much their cornering attempt had to do with the spike in gold though.
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Silver appears to be showing the way in the precious metals market to me. Silver is a leveraged version of gold to the upside as well as the down side. Check these 8 hour graphs below, gold came back to the trend channel, but silver hasn't. Which shows to me that the outlook is positive.
Be careful with that assumption, silver will only drop when gold's recent rally has been confirmed as finished. When there's no more hope for a further rally in gold, silver will drop hard. It does it time and time again, it's very deceptive and cannot be used as a reliable indicator. That's what makes it so difficult to trade.
I'm currently 50/50 on what happens next for PMs (and have been for a few months). Now the gold double top is potentially in place we're in a very dangerous position. I don't buy Bubb's theory on a general equities rally either, so at the moment I'm happy to play it safe and sit things out. This market has been consistently killing even the best of the pros, nothing I have seen in the last few weeks makes me believe it will cease to do so in the future.
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I am banned from posting there.
Judging by the recent amount of gold thread suppression on HPC, they'll have banned half their users by the end of this month. I thought the site was meant to help and educate people. Apparently that only counts if you want to be 'helped' and 'educated' into holding fiat.
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
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It does have that feel to it - the sudden rally does seem a little bit 'unexplained'. I haven't been this spooked by the market since last Aug - and that certainly didn't end very well.