dopamine

Thanks for the graph. I'm not so optimistic about 50oz, but can envisage 100oz.

Probably OT for this thread GF but wasn't your target average house price in GBP = 100oz?

I know - the current coverage probably reflects the trend, which is clearly up. To me it means that it might be time to anticipate a coming blow off, and once that happens it's time to think about when to get out (assuming there isn't complete systemic collapse). However, the paranoiac in me is thinking that there is also the risk of an engineered spike by banks trying to profit going up and down - the upratings of the gold price by ML, citi and ubs are making me a bit twitchy. However, regardless of this the coming few months may present a big trading opportunity in that $1000/ozs feeling quite 'magnetic' at the moment. Am seriously considering a largish trading position on top of my core physical holdings, either in ABX or another big miner, or more probably, following spot. I know that you don't trade GF, but for gamblers like me, is anyone else thinking of trading up to $1000?

Questor column in the telegraph positive about silver. One of the few mainstream sources I've seen talking about silver investment (not counting moneyweek here). I share Bubb's concern about current PM ramping in the mainstream press. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets...price-jump.html

That's right - 'money' my arse. Might as well be wheat. However, I still agree with GF that when/if TSHTF, silver will be just what the public want.

Silver and gold clearly decoupling today - silver down $0.57, gold up $11.40 at time of writing.

Silver's currently behaving like a commodity, not as money.

Yes, and once you've emptied your bowels, it's still there, taunting you with the threat of further drops. I'm now a hardened shitter over silver.

Just like that other market that we all know and love. Would that property was as liquid as gold.

I feel like I've followed the white rabbit down the hole. Can anyone give me back some semblance of a grasp on 'reality' and tell me why we're having such a massive spike downwards in PMs? The only explanation I can summon up is massive manipulation.

ditto to all your points, although i'm still in etf investments. I'm 10% in but the procrastinater in me is saying 'is this enough'? After seeing Darling brutalise sterling's future yesterday I nearly went in 100%. Today I'm procrastinating again, trying to second guess mad, disingenuous markets. I actually wished I still owned property today.

Mother of all spikes just happened on my kcast feed. About to log on to reuters to check whether a nuke has detonated somewere or other such good news

Nobody seems to be able to give a feasible explanation as to why silver is tanking so much. Yes it's a paper problem, but there's lots of paper gold too and gold han't fallen like silver has. Yes silver is traditionally volatile, but not this volatile, and in the current climate you'd have thought it would be held up by small investors buying as a protection against systemic collapse (cue all the stories about how to buy gold in the mainstream media). The only explanation that sums it up for me is that silver is not behaving like a monetary metal at all at the moment. It sees to be being traded as a commodity much like rhodium and platinum are (and they've tanked as well). All of my PM investments have been in silver up til July, when I went for gold instead. I'm seriously thinking of getting out of silver for a while until things are clearer - this deflationary scare may well put it below $10, as some here have said.

Fear at work

Silver not wanting to go up in sympathy though. Is it suddenly not a monetary metal any more?

Aesthetic and/or paranoid concerns must be the only drivers for home delivered physical silver purchases at the current premiums.

Yes I'm surprised by how muted the reaction to this has been. I suspect it will be the same when the big UK banks are told to 'absorb' B+B next week.

Thanks. You're wrong of course - my wife is the biggest risk of all if I lose any more of the STR fiat on PMs (down currently by a few K on a 10% investment) She is not reasonable and has no financial understanding.

I use Kitco Kcast and I just had to look twice at the movement. Silver lost a dollar in a few minutes, it seems. You're a brave man indeed if you're putting your STR fund in PMs (I know, cue people telling me that fiat is the biggest risk of all).

Hmmm. I took a very small (£500) leveraged position in LSIL at just under $18 on the basis that even if it fell a lot it would never go down to $9, purely to spice up my silver holdings, to have a bit of fun. I can afford to lose it, but by christ I never imagined it would go anywhere near $9. Silver is acting like a crippled pig. Except for today, but I'm not counting chickens yet given the state of this market.

my trachea would come out through the back door, so to speak. I suspect I would drop my guts so far that I would be, effectively, inside out

Under $11.50 now. My bowels are loosening up nicely ready for total collapse once we breach $11.

Bobsta are you my clone? I was like a nodding dog reading your post. Rock and hard place, Scylla and Charybdis, it's a nightmare isn't it? My reticence has cost me dear over the last year - particularly re: moving some cash from GBP to other currencies- something that I had on my to do list for a long time, as well as buying into a managed currency fund, which I found difficult to access. The only action I did take - adding significantly to my existing PM investments after I STR - has cost me money. Right now I too have the same concerns about EUR, and as for trading into the dollar - I'm not sectionable enough to take that kind of risk. Like you I admire the complexity and depth of the research that GF and Dr B undertake but like you I don't have the time to digest or learn about the concepts underpinning it that would make me feel like I really understand what's going on. I'm increasingly worrying that I'll just need to forget about appreciation of my PMs over the next few years and stay in GBP in high interest deposits - but that prospect doesn't help me sleep at night either. I suppose it's about tolerating anxiety, which I can cope with when I'm doing a foolish trade, but not with my life savings. It's all opened my eyes to the extent to which the system is stacked against the small individual investor. And don't talk aout silver

The 'new contrariness' seems to be related to an increased acceptance of arguments for impending deflation. My own position is that I feel confused about the implications of the interventions of CBs on systemic confidence in fiat. This is mainly because my previous view (that CB intervention of the kind we've seen is inflationary) has been shaken by the recent drop in PMs. I suspect quite a few people are in this position at the moment. As for all the comments that we'll be OK in the long term with PMs - if deflation is on its way, it'll be around for longer than my investment time horizon, so I'll be down on all my PM investments at the time when I might want to swap some of them back into fiat (3-5 years probably).

I took a small punt on LSIL a few months ago as well. Just be thankful that its not spreadbetting and you're limited to losing your initial investment only. I can't resist keeping an eye on the market though and since I have lost a lot of my paper gains in PMs and PM shares in the last few months (been in for 2 years now), my main concern is whether this bull is over, or at least is taking a pause which may last longer than my medium term horizon. At risk of attracting contemptuous reactions, I'm worried that a lot of gold investors seem to be trying to turn bad news into good to justify their holdings / positions. I hope I am wrong to be deeply worried, and this is just a correction in a long term bull (which I admit common sense indicates it is), but while they're the best indicator of the future, past patterns are just that (obviously). I have a sizeable holding and it isn't looking too good from my perspective, fundamentals or no.