bitbigt

They're either playing with us... or have run out of ammo.

I think the PPT has their mind elsewhere just now (Freddie and Fanny), and since their ammo is definitely running low (one analyst said "they have just one bailout left in them") they're only able to worry about F+F. As many of us have said for some time, the PPT will soon be swamped and unable to hold gold down, at which point the upside move will be truly amazing. I think we may be just at the start of that event.

Technical analysis in gold is the best way to the poorhouse.

I'd agree over the short-term (hours/days), but there are clear trends that emerge over months/years.

That's why I invest in gold, and trade in other assets - using gold TA only to guide me towards the better buying opportunities

If it does not go over $1,000 before September, I'll be stocking up more, especially some silver while the ratio is above 50:1, or close.

Hi GF: I'm 95% gold and 5% silver, and kick myself for not buying S more when at 16.50 recently. But I'm actually still not as sure as you that the GS ratio will change all that much. For your sake (you've got lots of silver, right?), I hope I'm wrong

will the Dow fall below 11000 today?

11022 now

I predict DOW at 10500 in a week or so. Could even believe 10000, as I'm expecting a major collapse sometime soon.

Cash all lined up and awaiting that event

[actually, I've been predicting and waiting for it since last July when I cashed out of the SM, and now quite excited that its getting so close. After it happens, I think the recovery will be brief and profitable, after which I'll be back into cash again as gawd only knows what will happen after that!!!]

Bash, bash, bash go the PPT.

$957.20 and falling...

Bish bash tosh!! They're loosing the war!...

Taking out 950 so soon and so effortlessly after running up from sub-880 at the start if July is amazing. Sure, we may now fight with 1000 over the summer, or even range between 930-1000, but a September blast into the stratosphere is looking extremely likely now - regardless of how much the PPT bishes and bashes in the meantime

80bn capital supporting 5tr loans.

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ...now thats leverage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

...or perhaps its just a deathwish ???????????????

550 - easy peasy :-)

 

The world and his dog though we'd fight with the 550 ceiling, so todays action is amazing and wonderfully bullish

 

So today it will now rocket up from here! ...imho

...love it when I'm right (well, on up days anyway!)

...ahhhh ...perhaps not so easy peasy. The 550 battle is on.

I suspect it'll yield with the help of our US friends

As cued! ...Don't you just love those Americans :-)

550 - easy peasy :-)

...ahhhh ...perhaps not so easy peasy. The 550 battle is on.

I suspect it'll yield with the help of our US friends

Yes, exactly :D

949. Very close

550 - easy peasy :-)

The world and his dog though we'd fight with the 550 ceiling, so todays action is amazing and wonderfully bullish

So today it will now rocket up from here! ...imho

My impression is that gold rises, and THEN the Fed raises rates. Which I think makes sense, because they keep rates low until inflation picks up, and then try to stop it. And gold is the good measure of inflation, is it not.

Hi All - just back after 2 days away from me 'puta! Nice liitle run golds having today, and I'm pleased my predicted 910 floor held [i love it when I'm right!]

Regarding the neat 'real rate vs gold' charting some have been doing here, my take on it is even simpler - when real rates go negative, gold shoots up [logical - because those are the times when even invested cash is loosing money, so people panick and buy gold]. The real neg rate of a few years ago thus explains why gold has done so well in last 3 years. And real rates are going negative again right now (thanks to CPI rising right now, and probably even more so for ~2 years more). So gold looks set to really jump up much higher still over next 1-2 years

...and remember also, the CPI calculation today is different from that of the past - they keep changing the math to hide real inflation. If we used the old calculation, CPI would be about 2% higher (i.e., real rates 2% lower!) ...and BTW, GDP would be much lower, so we'd actually be officially in recession.

It's all over for gold

I would fully agree with them, IF I could believe that "central bank action to fight inflation" will be effective and inflation comes under control this year.

Ultimately, of course, we will find ourselves back in a low inflation world, where economies are back in some kind of balance again, and so then gold will correct back down. But that's quite a few years away

So if instead you believe (like most people do, even CBs themselves!!!) that inflation is going to get much worse this year and next before the global slowdown has any chance of ameliorating it, then gold will go up a long way from here.

I intend to bury a few of these too.

Interesting. Did I mention that I employ hundreds of cheap Asians. I might send them round for coffee, as a treat, with very big teaspoons (shuvels)

915 it is, even more bullish than 910 , complete calm, buy time

...hate to be a killjoy, but I'm starting to change my short-term view:

If oil keeps pulling back, we could get a sympathy fall in gold (I think that's whats started in the last 18 hrs), back down to 890.

But I still only give this scenario a 25% chance of occuring, rising to a much greater chance if we fall below 910 today.

If we get down to $910 I'm all in, burying it in the garden and checking the spot price in January.

...good idea. What's your addres by the way?

As I mentioned last week - based upon charts, fundamentals, and sentiment, I think we'll range between 910 - 950 for a while before breaking out to the upside. I find it very hard to imagine we'll go to 900 or below again.

Some bedtime reading:

...this guys monthly reports (Evan Koenig: senior policy advisor in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) are REALLY worth keeping an eye on

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/update-us/archive.cfm

Watch out for thin markets tommorrow. London could whack gold in the morning

Agreed - I'm expecting we'll consolidate for a few days/weeks - not going below 910 and fighting a bit before we get through 950. Then more of the same to 1000 by the autumn whereupon a big run up will launch. Tomorrow could be a down day, but more than 1-2% would be very surprising.

Looks like the second sortie of fighters are incoming...

Indeed, I suggested they might :-)

Half way back up already, and likely to finish today where we ended yesterday - not bad at all :-)

Goldbugs 1: PPT 1 ...a draw today!

The rate hike had been priced in for about a week and a half so a classic "buy rumour, sell fact" on eurodollar which weakens gold. Trichet's statement apparently wasn't hawkish enough and the payroll numbers weren't as bad as they could have been - even though they were worse than estimates . My guess on the size of the drop is that there were lot of sell orders just in case Trichet held. They were probably positioned - like mine - around $940 although, I didn't figure the hike and worse -than-estimate numbers would trigger it.

 

What a daft world, eh ?

Thanks, and yes

Is this effect on Gold not pretty much what we should be expecting with an ECB rate rise? Will be interesting to see where hard support lies....

I would have expected the Euro to strengthen and the dollar to weaken. The weaker dollar should then push gold, oil and other commodity prices up (since they're just alternative 'currencies' nowadays)

But, the dollar has instead strengthened by 1% and thats reflected in just over a 1% drop in gold. So this gold drop is just a dollar story!!

With oil up at 146 before the Eurorate decision, the PPT perhaps couldn't allow another 2 dollar jump in oil after the Eurozone decision?

...the devil in me is now half expecting investors to see through this (once they've ragained the composure today) and there may be a counter rally...

Madness - Eurozone rate goes up, so dollar strengthens significantly [so gold etc fall]

...someone please explain

...PPT intervention? .."OK (w)banker buddies, if they raise the base rate in Europe today, buy loads of dollars immediately"

EDIT: 950 will have to wait until next week

well, 4.25%

Madness - Eurozone rate goes up, so dollar strengthens significantly [so gold etc fall]

...someone please explain

Have you seen the cgnao rumour?

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3534

No - I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out! It says "between now (Wed) and tomorrow (thurs)" so they're running out of time.

My 'predictions' are obviously just educated guesses, based upon obsessive reading around market issues. I sense that we're in one of those periods when a lot changes. And so far its all been good for gold. Everyones seeing 950 as a target and an obstacle, and I think there's a desire to give it a try soon (maybe even today). If it yields, then the confidence boost will be massive, and people will see 1000, 1030 12,000... as very achievable... as the fundamentals would argue for!

I predict we're now on the starting block for a serious push on 950 within the day. IF we pass it on first try (not so likely admitedly) then it'll go sky high.

But I'm also worried about a PPT knockdown (which, surprisingly, hasn't happenned over last few days)

I'd say there 's a 80% chance we'll try for 950 today, 20% chance we'll pass it, and 30% chance PPT will ruin the party