bitbigt

"Don't buy into strength"...

...unless there's speculators/bankers around, with loads of (borrowed) cash burning holes in their pockets, looking for the next bubble to inflate :-)

is anyone buying at 930-940 or does anyone expect it to come back down again to the low 900s?

I asked myself the same question when oil was bouncing between 100-110 for a few days, as I was waiting to buy at 80-90.

However, the speculators then got on board and you know what happened after that.

I expect the same for gold - if not this month, then definitely this quarter.

Thus - I think the chances of seeing a price below 900 again are rapidly fading.

My opinion; it will test 950 and fail. In fact it is already falling.

My opinion; it will try for 950 TODAY! ...and close near to but not over it.

Plunge Protection Team.

I have seen official documents confirming it's existence, I'm sure someone can point you at the evidence..

EDIT see for example:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...7/ccview107.xml

They're going around doing naughty little things like

- lending out gold (or even paying others to take it) so that those others can place large shorts on the gold market

- lending to financial institutions that should be more honsetly be recognised as bankrupt

- intervening in stock markets to try to stop them collapsing

- bending statistics on inflation, house prices, the dollar, and spreading many great fibs about how things are

Now some would say you therefore can't make rational investments given the likes of these doods on the playing field. But I think they're just part of the machinery. And just as they haven't been able to stop stock markets falling significantly since last Autumn nor stopped gold and oil from rising dramatically, they will be even less able to manipulate things going forward as they run out of dollars to throw at the problem and as more people get to see the true mess we're in globally as the 'great unwind' occurs.

Support at $920. Nice!

Agreed! Gold does have legs at these levels.

There's reason to hope for a steady and considerable rise this week, so long as the PPT don't come and do something radical to mess things up.

Looks like the profit taking after recent price rises has run its course. I feared a bigger pullback today, but I think its maybe now over.

Gold has some real legs it seems!

bug9er ...hate it when I'm wrong

[i was expecting this fall, but just assumed it would happen on US open]

Looks like the profit taking after recent price rises has run its course. I feared a bigger pullback today, but I think its maybe now over.

Gold has some real legs it seems!

Reposting (from weekend post on previous bb) to seek comment from this new bb...

Oil rose steeply from ~30 to get to 70, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 60-70.

Gold rose steeply from ~300 to get to 700, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 600-700.

Next, oil started its big run up at the START of 2007, it hesitated at 90-100, but then picked up again in Feb 2008 (speculators) to reach 140 (or more)

Whereas, gold started its big run up in the AUGUST 2007, it hesitated at 900-1000, but.... [prediction would be...] then picked up again in SEPT/OCT 2008 to reach 1400 (or more)

I'd be interested in your oil and gold time lag findings, and I'd be keen to do some analysis that expands on the results you post.

I think there may be something to this...

Oil rose steeply from ~30 to get to 70, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 60-70.

Gold rose steeply from ~300 to get to 700, then plateaued for about 1 year in a range of 600-700.

Next, oil started its big run up at the START of 2007, it hesitated at 90-100, but then picked up again in Feb 2008 (speculators) to reach 140 (or more)

Whereas, gold started its big run up in the AUGUST 2007, it hesitated at 900-1000, but.... [prediction would be...] then picked up again in SEPT/OCT 2008 to reach 1400 (or more)

Most satisfyingly: a big run up from Sept is what I felt would happen anyway, before I discovered this shared pattern with oil.

So come on you speculators.... now move on to gold!!!

Just wondering what peoples opinions of last weeks rally are.

Based upon increasing popularity of gold and improving sentiment, plus the inflation story, plus the long term chart technicals (price got ahead of itself at 1030, needed to ease off, but is now back to its trend line) then I think we're at the start of a big move. However, it won't be a straight line - we'll probably range a bit between 900-950, with the latter taking a few tries to pass. But by late summer we will be past 950 and on the way to 1000, such that the September boost will mark the real take off.

I feel that gold is some 6-12 months behind oil, and may line up the charts with a timeshift if I have a chance this weekend.

I fear I am right.

Touché - but what's coming is coming, nothing we can do about it

Amazing 2 days... gold up nearly 5% and DOW down more than 5% (and still falling). Did the PPT not notice this, or perhaps thev've just thrown the towell in

Expect quite a battle [today], and my guess is it'll go up :-)

...I love it when I'm right

(and don't worry, I'll also post and admit when I'm wrong!!)

Current score GoldBugs 3 : PPT 2 ...now well into the first half, and the opponents attackers are getting tired

Early goals in 2nd half... now 6 : 2 ....home team looking demoralized.

I wonder if maybe "decoupling" may come to consist of inflation in the East and deflation in the West.. In this scenario, prices will continue to go up in the West until things are simply unaffordable. At that point they will no longer be exported to the West but consumed in the East.

My guess is that the East will share their inflation with the West for a year or two. This global inflation monster will push the West into recession for several years (since we've no money or borrowing-capacity left here to restimulate things, and most Westerners are basically too lazy for the lifestyles they 'expect'). In contrast, the East does have the option of decoupling their currencies from the dollar and increasing interest rates, and then working hard and spending their vast national currency reserves on fighting their way through the economic challenges to start regrowing rapidly during the second decade of the noughties.

At the end of this, the whole world will be 'normalised': West will have a lower standard of living than current, and East will have a higher standard of living than current. Oh yes, and the dollar will be worthless compared to current, and no longer the researve currency! [....so start buying Euros ...or Yaun if you know how to (please tell me if so!!!!!)]

PS: Just heard on radio one that people should buy gold in these inflationary times: here we go!!!!!!!

Getting very difficult to call now. Maybe time to switch the screen off for today :-)

Current score GoldBugs 3 : PPT 2 ...now well into the first half, and the opponents attackers are getting tired

Interesting article on deflation here. Succinctly stated.

 

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

With respect, I'd rather disagree with the thesis in that article, because...

- Once the fire is built, you don't need to keep piling wood on it (i.e., more money on top of a decade of masses of sky-high money supply) for it to flare up from a few small flames into a blaze, and even taking a few logs off won't stop it if the pile is big enough

- CBs have been giving even more money away (OK, rolling over loans indefinately) since last august adding more fuel to the fire

- SWF piggy banks are full, and they're increasingly putting those dollars to work in alternative investments (espec commodities)

- the wage-cost spiral is kicking in big time in the East, pushing up salaries and costs of commodities

In short, there's a massive inflation pendulum now swinging back to the West after we passed all that money to Asia for 10+ years, and its being accelerated towards us by SWFs panicking about dollar strength and by recent CB handouts to financial institutions. Inflation has, for the first time ever, become a global problem, and wage-cost effects are already in play. So how in the hell are prices not going to keep going up for some time yet?

Any recession induced pull-back in prices is years away (2010 at earliest, and perhaps much later), that's if it ever happens (because it will be very difficult to destroy all the money thats been created in the last 10 years), by which time gold will have peaked and I'll have sold my stash :-)

I do not trade either. Would stress me out too much.

Same with me, lifes stressful enough - and it's only money we're talking about here :-)

Furthermore, I'd never take my eyes off the screen if trading, and so would never attend to my day job !

Price looks like its holding, but I suspect there may be a few quite hot terminals on the gold exchanges

...now the buying should start (hopefully)

Technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment were all calling for yesterdays convincing break through 900, as I mentioned early yesterday. But even I was pleasantly surprised at how little fall back then followed, especially given the general stock markets collapse now taking place (which usually causes gold seeling, to cover margin calls)

On todays US openning, I'd be surprised if something dramatic does not happen.

But its a hard call whether that will be a big manipulated knockdown (since the PPT must feel they need to do something on this the last day of such a significant week), or whether the strength just shown by gold will inspire more confidence and bring more of that speculative wall of money thats out there to the table on the long side.

Expect quite a battle, and my guess is it'll go up :-)

Can anyone tell me: are money supply figures adjusted to allow for inflation. I've always assumed they were not, but given that they do make such an adjustment for GDP then I'm now not so sure

The mother of all smackdowns once New York opens?

They'll try, they'll fail

Jeff Christian on FSN last week was saying that rollover of July contracts in PM's would rally prices up a little this week, for them to fall back on new short positions being opened next week. I'm considering closing a few breakeven longs at this stage to get in lower next week; any views?

For what its worth... my own objective with investing (and especially so with volatile PMs) is based upon the addage

"be right and sit tight"

Both are hard to do, and only a few people can do both!

So for gold, I think its going through the roof, and that will happen in next 6-12 months.

So I'm long with a big investment, and I aint selling for some time yet! So far up 50%

...but as always, DYOR!

King is good. He usually knows what'g going on, but as (basically) a politician, he can not tell the whole truth. So, here is my translation:

 

Gold Finger: Expect a twenty-five year pause in living standards

Indeed! Or even...

Expect a one year decimation followed by a twenty-five year pause in living standards (if you're lucky)

I feel sorry for these guys...

...really?

This one ?

Perhaps you should send this great piccy to all the investment magazines: it could appear on a few front covers in the near future :-)

Todays drop will be balanced out tomorrow or soon thereafter.

Looks like gold will today have its 3rd try at breaking through 900 convincingly.

I love it when I'm right :-)

...now wait for the knockdown later today! ...which, I predict, will be ineffectual, and we'll close well north of 900.