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bitbigt

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Posts posted by bitbigt

  1. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Don't worry we are all free thinking individuals here, nothing has changed my mind on the matter. Good luck with your plan.

    Thanks!

     

    I'm still going to keep watching prices, and judging the market - even though I now have only a little skin in the game.

     

    Regarding bear trap...

    - are we deep in the valley of that trap, or just part way along the downward slope? [i think the latter]

    - how long until we start on the next upleg? [i think it could be many months away, if stocks have a significant bear market rally]

    - how high up will the final 'mania' leg be ALLOWED to go by the PPT [i think they have more control that any of us would like to admit]

     

    Gold should already be at USD 1500-2000 if everything worked out fairly and logically, but it doesn't :(

     

    [PS. I'm already missing my gold investment, and starting to wonder if I shouldn't buy a smaller house and buy some of my recent profits back in at the base of the bull trap!!!]

  2. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    I agree, this is a long long way from over. Things seem to be lining up for a dead cat bounce in property and the illusion of a return to normal.

     

    I plan on holding gold & silver for at least another 3 years, I can't think of anything I would rather be in during the coming time.

     

    Keep the faith goldbugs :D

    In case my selling up has encouraged this emerging negativity on gold, let me strongly re-emphasize:

     

    - I sold because I want to buy a house in ~1 year from now, and didn't want to risk my doubled investment any further. House prices WILL fall much further in next year, and probably more beyond that as well.

     

    - I am 200% sure there will be a global inflation problem in next several years, and gold price will take off accordingly.

     

    - I suspect there will be a bear market rally in stocks and a drop in gold price these next few months (as there was in the 70's), presenting a buying opportunity

     

    As Pixel8r says: Keep the faith goldbugs

  4. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    I can't disagree with that decision. Doubling your money is nothing to be sniffed at, and converting PMs back into GBPs when the pound's taken (IMO) most of the beating that it's going to take... Well, I can see why you've done it. And good luck to you!

     

    I think we all remember watching Gold go to $1000+ and then all sitting there licking our wounds when it fell back to below $700. Sometimes it's time to take your winnings off the table and bank it.

     

    (I'm sure folks will warn you that your fiat will be destroyed shortly ... but I think you've actually been quite smart and conservative - good luck :))

    Sure - fiat is toast!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     

    But that's exactly why we're going to put it ALL into a house/home (i.e. a real asset that will hold its value if we buy when prices are down, and a place to live where kids can develop a sense of belonging )

     

    For the record: This brings the BigT Family's cash/bond holdings to 47% of our wealth, whilst 3% remains in PMs, 10% is in oil/energy investments, and 40% is in rental properties we hold in Switzerland (where a house price boom didn't yet happen ...but soon will [a story for another day]) ...plus Mrs BigT has given me permission to 'maybe' play with 5% (from the cash portion) in further oil/energy trades

     

    I would NOT EVER hold fiat long term, unless its earning interest to balance a fiat debt on a real asset (mortgage), which thereby lets me play the forex market whilst not actually having a net cash holding

  5. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    BTW - Good luck bigtbigt, I hope it works out for you. I can't help but fear you have jumped out at exactly the wrong time, I hope I'm wrong. Are you holding your `winnings` in CHF or do you have other plans?

    Thanks for the good wishes.

     

    Goal from day 1 was to double our money, tax free, and pull it out for a house/home. That profit has been achieved, so at this stage its most wise for me to bank my profits.

    We had more than doubled our money a week ago (as gold hit USD 1000 again), but I then felt it could/would go yet higher after a pull back to the 900-950 region.

     

    But that second assault on 1000 hasn't materialised (PPT simply refused to let it happen!!). And now I also fear we'll have a significant bounce in the stock market, given the stimulus actions/packages thrown at the economy. That will bring down fear, and the price of gold (after all, its the fear component that's push gold up these last many months).

     

    So we may have had a double top in PoG - and there could be a long leg down from here. ...before a second run up to 1500 too late for my house buying plan

     

    If I'm wrong - I'll be able to buy my house anyway (though definitely not rushing into this, as prices will fall much further throughout this year)

    If I'm right - I'll buy more gold before the big run up, with earnings and other redirected investments as they mature over next 2 years or so.

     

    The money is now sitting in Sterling, and we'll move it into various 6-12 month maturity blue chip Sterling bonds. I.e., capital is now in same currency as planned house purchase, so we'll be gaining so long as house prices continue to fall - plus will get a further uplift via bond interest and bond capital increase (as corporate bond prices are low just now). Who knows - we may even end up rolling over those bonds into other Sterling bonds, and take out a mortgage in CHF, as that currency is at an all time high vs Sterling. The bond income will then pay the mortgage each month, and we can sell the bond and pay off the mortgage whenever Sterling strengthens again in X years time.

  6. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Surely you jest... you must have kept some of it.... just a little?? :unsure:

     

    Oh, and good luck with the house hunting. :)

     

    Edit: opps just re-read your post.

    You've no idea how much that sale made me sweat (and swear)

     

    I tried selling with gold at 21150 / kilo - but the deal had to go through my Swiss banker and thereafter onto the broker. I feared a knock down from the Yanks! The delay in exchange quotes, however, caused me to eventually get only 20930 ...I sat watching it fall waiting for the call. ...heart racing.

     

    But now, with double my substantial starting funds - I can relax and make a cash offer on a house (actually, a 'home') at my leisure. ...and I'll sleep well tonight, which I haven't done for the last 2 weeks!

     

    Might also add...

    - wife is Swiss, so its all tax free!

    - may anyway take out a Swiss mortgage to improve further what we can buy, and thereby benefit from eventuall restrengthenning of Sterling.

     

    Most important of all - long term PM holders should NOT loose faith. I am 200% certain we'll get an inflationary kick back in next few years, and gold will hit 1500-2000 USD.

  7. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Guys - sorry to desert you all - I've just sold all my gold and silver!

     

    This was a BIG sale [and an emotionally very difficult decision!!!!!!!]

     

    Rationale:

    - the money was put into PMs to buy a UK home, once house prices had fallen

    - in Sterling, we've doubled our money and have enough for a VERY nice house, even at todays house prices

    - will buy a house in about 12 months, and fear PMs in Sterling could fall in that time (before a final big run up in prices as inflation hits the next several years)

     

    Plus we considered...

    - the dumb majority may soon start thinking we're past the worse of the recession (and so lighten up on PM holdings)

    - PPT seem intent on keeping gold below 1000

     

    So, basically, all things considered, we couldn't tolerate the risk of sitting in PMs the next 12 months.

     

    Pension pot PMs, and childrens PMs, are still retained - as these are long term holdings, not intended for house purchase.

     

    HOWEVER - Mrs Bigt and I agree - if PM prices fall far enough (USD 700 ?), we'll 'find' money from wherever we can (beyond house money), to buy back in via our pension pots

  11. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    ...actually no: its the dollar went down early in the day.

     

    I think it will take a few days/weeks, but people will start to understand the QE makes each existing pound less valuable, and they'll start selling Sterling assets.

     

    I therefore predict near parity with the dollar sometime this year, so long as the USD remains a safe haven and doesn't suffer its own downfall before that.

    I love getting it right :)

  12. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Meanwhile, after QE (aka debasement of Sterling) the £ is up 0.7%...?????wtf?????

    ...actually no: its the dollar went down early in the day.

     

    I think it will take a few days/weeks, but people will start to understand the QE makes each existing pound less valuable, and they'll start selling Sterling assets.

     

    I therefore predict near parity with the dollar sometime this year, so long as the USD remains a safe haven and doesn't suffer its own downfall before that.

     

  14. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Guys - looking at recent price activity of gold and silver, I am incredibly impressed at the resilience shown at these levels, especially since we've seen dollar strengthening and deflation warnings everywhere you turn.

     

    I really start to think we're at a key upward turning (rocket) point in the price of PMs

     

    Additionally, bond markets and some commentators are now just starting to consider inflation risks again. So if even just a little evidence of further economic weakness appears (e.g., worse than expected earnings reports and bank problems), and/or some evidence for inflation returning becomes apparent in the next few weeks/months, we really could be - right now - on the launchpad for the moon!

     

    ....I feel it in me bones!!!

    I wrote the above 3 weeks ago, when gold was hoverring at 900

     

    Further bank problems have since emerged, and the rocket has launched as I predicted. ...but have we now topped out?

     

    No way Hosey!!! - we're still to see more bank problems (nationalisations), car industry failure, and evidence of returning inflation (e.g., oil price recoverring to USD 60+, and other soft and hard commodities increasing).

     

    Gold will reach 1400 this year ...at least!

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