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bitbigt

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Posts posted by bitbigt

  1. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    It's more likely to be people panicking at the smallest bit of news. The majority of the market simply hasn't got a clue where the 'smart money' went.

     

    There's no longer a crowd to follow, so the brain dead folks who create the big price moves are looking for someone to lead them by the hand. As a consequence they're piling into and out of assets en masse based on Bloomberg headlines, all in the hope they magically pick the right one and a trend emerges.

     

    The trend will form eventually, then we get the stampede and the morons pay over the odds for assets owned by the smart money. Happens every time, and this will be no different.

     

    So at this stage we on GEI are either smart, or totally deluded. I know which one my money is (literally) on. ;)

    Personally, I probably am generally deluded about many things - but that doesn't exclude being lucky about what I invest in ! :lol:

  2. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Expecting gold to slide to 865 before its next step up, I decide this morning to stop looking at it for a few days (to avoid the pain of watching the fall)

     

    But at 4.50pm GMT today, my curiosity got the better of me, and I had a quick peek

     

    ...I'm now smiling :)

  4. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    This guy has a different take on the same view:

     

    Gold is Dead and Neitzsche had Nothing to do with it

     

    if he's wrong I'll be very happy. If not then POG could re-align with the $ - which would make me unhappy (but a buyer nonetheless).

    Reading to the end, his argument is fully predicated on "the dollar may yet spike to new highs!?"

     

    Well

     

    a. I doubt it - the recent spike was all about repattriation of dllars, and that can only happen once

     

    b. even if there is a small further spike upwards, the word 'spike' says it all a spike is a short term, abbarrent jump up followed by a correction back down. I'm a long term holder, waiting for the higher prices that will come in next few years, so a transient spike is irrelevant anyway.

  5. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Guys - looking at recent price activity of gold and silver, I am incredibly impressed at the resilience shown at these levels, especially since we've seen dollar strengthening and deflation warnings everywhere you turn.

     

    I really start to think we're at a key upward turning (rocket) point in the price of PMs.

     

    Additionally, bond markets and some commentators are now just starting to consider inflation risks again. So if even just a little evidence of further economic weakness appears (e.g., worse than expected earnings reports and bank problems), and/or some evidence for inflation returning becomes apparent in the next few weeks/months, we really could be - right now - on the launchpad for the moon!

     

    ....I feel it in me bones!!!

  9. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    midday: Looks like gold is starting on a nother price jump ...just as I have to go traveling for 4 days, with litle/no acess to internet.

     

    So I'm trusting you all to keep an eye on it for me :-)

    USD 925!!!

     

    WELL DONE EVERYONE ...I SEE I LEFT IT IN SAFE HANDS :)

  11. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Don't rejoice, you fool.

     

    Aha - cgnao is Mr T

     

    ...But please don't get insulting, just because we don't all share your 'completely' doom laden view of the future.

     

    It is a good day when the honest value of gold starts to be realised. And if you are right and there is major disaster ahead, then a rising gold price will mean those of us holding gold will at least be able to exchange it for a fair value of some other asset (even if that has to be food and weapons!!)

  13. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Congrats! I averaged in on silver at 13'ish +++, maybe 14 cos I bought some at 19, waiting for silver to catch up - however my gold is doing very nicely now, can't complain.

     

    GO GOLD! :lol: :lol: :lol:

     

    Edit to add, Fook me, just checked my GM account and it is off the scale, well 2k up in about 3 weeks? Crazy.

    Your lack of precision (in bold) shows how relaxed you are about this - and rightly so!!!! :)

  17. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    bu55er, it must be true what Mrs GOM said about me having OCD tendencies, after just 2 seconds, I realised that the middle section of your rocket needs moving 1 millimetre to the right. :unsure:

     

    on a seperate note, great creativity there & a bit of childsplay, I guarantee you don't work in either finance, IT or the public sector. ;)

    Glad you liked my childsplay. In fact, it was the result of today's project in our kindergarden - the teacher told me I did well and gave me 2 gold stars :)

     

    [bTW: I am in IT and the public sector!]

  19. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Mish sums it up well in the CWR podcast. The biggest contributor to the money supply has been/ is credit. Compare what is being created with the net change over the past couple of years of the mortgage market and it looks like a drop in the ocean

    I basically agree, but we shouldn't under-estimate the further damage GB could do...

     

    Net new mortgage lending in UK peaked at about £50B per year, meaning new money creation from that source was probably in the range £10B - £50B per year for each of the last 10 or so years. Lets say 300B total.

     

    I can quite imaging the government borrowing many tens of billions more to restimulate the economy. Indeed, the US is probably looking at creating a trillion or more.

     

    But in the end - all the sums just add together anyway. All the new money created over last decade still exists, and will have its effect on inflation over next few years. The new money that is now to be printed as part of the crazy 'quantitative easing' just adds to the pot.

     

    And remember, the other main consideration is the impression people have. A lot of new money has been created, but the government and media spin has made people think deflation is the big danger. The fact that people are now talking so blatantly about printing new money could change the way the masses think about these things - so they instead start to worry about the likelihood of inflation. Once the masses start to see the world that way, thats when gold will go ballistic. Hopefully, tomorrow's newspaper headlines will take us one big step further along that road.

  21. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Wow -£50/t oz in 3 days and no one comments... Is everyone still drunk from Christmas? BTW what caused the pound to strengthen? is bad news good news again, re this week's MPC meet?

    Looks to me like PPT levers started to get pulled as soon as silver shot up 2% in 10 minutes at start of US trading, passing that 11.5 level.

     

    Indeed, they really got busy today - silver down 6%, 3.5%, oil down 15%.

     

    Laughable really - they keep inflating the money supply, and concomitantly try to hold down these inflation indicating commodities. It can ony get harder and harder to keep these prices suppressed as money supply increases - eventually the top will blow open.

  22. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Hmmm. What do you guys think? I have some currency ££ things, you know, "I cant believe its not money". What looks the best buy, gold, silver, platinum or paladium or shall I wait and build my cash position to buy on weakness? Whats your gut feelings?

    I'd average into silver and oil, over 1-2 months

  23. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    ...i accidently typed £ intstead of $

    oooohh... you can't get away with mistakes like that on this forum :)

     

    Thanks for taking the time to calculate that

    ...and here it is in USD. The '-10%' section correlates simply with the USD getting unreasonably strong for a period, due to repatriation of panicking dollars. That effect is largely now finised with, and so a compensatory upswing in PoG should follow (and has already started)

     

    over 1 month, annualised rate is +170%

    over 3 months, annualised rate is -10%

    over 6 months, annualised rate is -10%

    over 1 year, annualised rate is 0%

    over 5 years, annualised rate is +25%

     

    But yes your right, sterling is very weak at the moment and looks over sold imo, as soon as the BOE stops hacking rates it will recover.

    ...sometime yet then :lol:

     

     

  24. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Over a year you'v gained about £5. :(

    Not sure what you mean....

     

    Fact is you'll have made £5 if you invested £15 one year ago in gold - i.e., a 33% profit!!

     

    And look at the general pattern that's emerging...

     

    over 1 month, annualised rate is +180%

    over 3 months, annualised rate is +70%

    over 6 months, annualised rate is +55%

    over 1 year, annualised rate is +33%

    over 5 years, annualised rate is +35%

     

    My point is there's a very nice accelerating uptrend in place just now, and with the expected volatility as few percent up or down in any one day must not be over-interpreted.

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