Perishabull

 

 

 

Read more: http://www.belfastte...l#ixzz2AysunkKA

Very nice if you have plenty of funds to plough into it.

Sometimes it can be interesting to look at search trends on Google trends. I looked at search frequency in the UK for the term "house prices uk" from 2004 until now.

Here's what it shows;

It doesn't give concrete figures for searches but only how the trend has developed over time, so 100 represents peak search volume over the timeframe in question. The highest point looks to be February 2007, about 5/6 months before the absolute top. Then it went down to 20% of peak by the end of 2010.

Now it's back to 70% of peak and appears to be on an upswing.

SLV and SIL

This is SLV (Physical Silver ETF) in black with SIL (Silver miners ETF) in blue. It's a semi-log chart to show relative performance. It seems that from Jan 2011, SIL has broadly speaking, underperformed in comparison to SLV. If you look at the margin of difference for SIL between May this year and now, compared to SLV, it appears to indicicate that we are now entering a period of outperformance, relative to SLV, for the silver miners.

COT chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The small specs have been more overexposed in the last 2/3 months than at any other time in the last 8 years. Could that suggest a larger correction coming?

Gold sentiment courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

Chart is only up to date as of 30th October, so it's probably down at 50 or lower now, what with the recent drops.

Link?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjQu9qFpStw&t=13m20s

13 mins 20 secs

Excerpt from telegraph.co.uk;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9629688/Tough-new-mortgage-rules-to-hit-first-time-buyers-and-borrowers-in-their-50s.html

"Tough new mortgage rules to hit first-time buyers and borrowers in their 50s

Tough new mortgage lending rules to be announced tomorrow are expected to hit millions of prospective first-time buyers as well as those in their 50s.

The regulations, designed to bring an end to the reckless borrowing of the past, are likely to mean those wanting to get on the property ladder continue to face high hurdles to take out loans.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders warned that it would mean today’s tight lending conditions remained a “permanent feature” of the property market.

Among those affected by tomorrow’s announcement by the Financial Services Authority will be those looking to take out interest-only mortgages.

Because they have lower monthly repayments, these types of loans have in the past helped millions get onto the housing ladder.

It is expected that under the new rules, these borrowers will in future have to show that they are saving a pot of money to pay off the capital when the mortgage matures.

Lenders would be required to check at least once during the term of the loan that the savings pot its still in place, it is thought."

To me, the regions of high wear look a little different in colour,

They are slightly lighter, which I'm guessing wouldn't happen with a real one?

Found some more info, apparently it's a commonly faked coin.

I'm looking for help identifying a coin which may or may not be gold. I don't know anything about gold coins or otherwise so maybe someone out there can help. My wife acquired it as part of bargaining for a frame in a shop, there was a box of old coins that the shop owner advised she could take one as part of the purchase of the frame.

 

This is it;

 

 

 

 

It's a mystery so far. Our coin says PVA 736 whereas the outstanding auctioneer's example says PVA 699.

This is from

The Coins of Colonial America:

Here's something similar-ish on ebay, this is a Peruvian coin 27 grams.

It's on for £3250.

I'm looking for help identifying a coin which may or may not be gold. I don't know anything about gold coins or otherwise so maybe someone out there can help. My wife acquired it as part of bargaining for a frame in a shop, there was a box of old coins that the shop owner advised she could take one as part of the purchase of the frame.

This is it;

Now I found the following in baldwin auctioneers catalogue;

Now clearly the quality of the coins are miles apart however the patterning and era of the coins are similar, the number on my wife's coin is 736. Looking closer at my wife's coin I'm wondering whether it could be an old fake coin?

It's a mystery so far. Our coin says PVA 736 whereas the outstanding auctioneer's example says PVA 699.

 

Even better. lol. Seems to be such a long time ago but I remember it very well just like only yestarday.

You beat me to my original purchase by 2 and a half years!

Nice one.

 

NOW looks like a good time to buy gold.

The value of truth in that statement has now been defined.

Can you spot the difference?

Perhaps the hardest part of the trade, besides having sat in dollars and waited for the spike to correct, will be holding on to the position, It will be very tempting to sell at 80, or 100, or then again at 200 and then 400.

Actually, you may well find that the points where you are tempted to sell are the wrong points, it's at the point where you absolutely do not want to part with the position that you need to start thinking about unloading. Here's a quote of mine back when silver peaked in April 2011;

Well, not long after the futures opened tonight silver was down $6, down at $42.60 or 12% lower as I write this. After much vacillating on Thursday I sold half of my silver and bought more puts on SLV. I must confess I felt awful doing it, thinking it was the wrong move however it may just turn out to be a rather prescient one. I'm now hoping it gets absolutely ripped to shreds over the next few days.

 

 

A brutal $6 move down inside 12 minutes. I would not be surprised if the euphoric retail money that just poured into SLV en masse sees this tomorrow and we see something rather spectacular in the silver market.

 

Was reading on another forum about a newbie futures trader who was holding silver futures contracts long into the weekend. That's going to be a very expensive lesson learned.

I'm not posting this to "big myself up", I'm posting it to point out to you how very difficult it is to unload at precisely the right time since the bullish fervour was unrelenting, people were talking about the move continuing up to $75 and $100 and there were a lot of expectations in the market that this would happen, (together with some absurd predictions of $6,000 etc). I am always very wary indeed when I hear people in the financial markets (escpecially prominent voices) talk in absolute terms.

eg

When I see someone talk about expectations of returns it reminds me of James Turk on 20th April 2011 on KingWorldNews;

Talking of precious metals;

"Expect much higher prices"

 

Talking of the dollar;

"Expect a waterfall decline in the dollar"

 

The "waterfall decline" came in silver and "much higher prices" came in the dollar index.

 

That was right before the top and he got it 180° wrong, in fact he couldn't have got it more wrong.

It's worth bearing these things in mind Romans.

If I'm right about gold (that it's currently on a run that will take it past $2,000) then....well....you have to think what would happen in that scenario...

 

NOW looks like a good time to buy gold.

This may be a good example of a reflexive statement.

NOW looks like a good time to buy gold.

SIlver futures;

Strong resistance at $26 and the downward sloping trendline should see a resolution this year.

 

Gold sentiment;

I'm a fan of these charts from

www.sentimentrader.com

There's usually not such a large gap between posts on this thread. Maybe it's time for some upside action for Gold.

From Zerohedge;

"Oil And Gold Seasonals Suggest BTFD

The long-term seasonal data for gold and oil has not just remained relatively highly correlated over time but, as Barclays points out today, has very clear periods of bearishness, consolidation, and bullishness. While Gold may have another month of treading water, the period from September to mid-October is empirically bullish while Brent's August to mid-October period is the most bullish segment of the year. Given gold's stability in the past month or so since the EU Summit, and oil's surge (and modest pull-back very recently), seasonals certainly provide some technical support for BTFD here in these QE-sensitive, real assets.

Brent Crude's two major bullish seasonals...

and Gold's three periods of bullish seasonality...

"

Triple post...

Double post