lardoon

I forgot to add that I was surprised not to see Gold jump much higher on the news of the vote.. Seems to be happening right now

Not quite... Could it be the PPT? I was expecting Gold to go down today to mark the success of the bailout (and helped/managed by the PPT) Maybe they are trying to limit the collateral damage from the failed bailout?

How much was a decent spread - say last year - when the market did not show these retail physical shortages (in %)? I was under the impression that 5-10% is the norm??

So is the ban on short selling will help the juniors or is it going to stay confined to Financials. Apparently the SEC is going to seriously look into this: SEC Pushes Hedge Fund Oath in Manipulation Probe http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

If you follow Bob Hoye you probably know that he expects the GS ratio to be headed to 100... So you might want to wait fpr that or scale in your purchase? just a thought... Edit: of course you believe he (Hoye) is wrong (duh! I should read better) so ignore this.. I would suggest you hedge your future silver purchase at today's prices.. but that involves some form of "paper silver"...

The latest from Marc Faber regarding this deflation/inflation: whole article at http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/09/08...hat-comes-next/ As for Silver vs. Gold, I am not so convinced that silver's performance will not be "tainted" by its "closer" affiliation to the commodities / industrial metals family if we are headed for a deflation first - and hence gold could outperform (disclaimer: I own only Silver and no gold - but this is my current worries and I am considering diversifying into Gold). Also I think one of the main uses/advantages of Silver as money used to be a better practicality for lower nominal transactions (ie you cant buy a latte or your groceries with 1oz of gold ;-) But I think if gold regains a more important place in monetary matters, it could be used to back financial transactions in an electronic form and therefore would allow for lower unit divisions (ie this is actually one of P. Schiff's point in his Crash-Proof book: a Debit Card linked to a gold account). In this instance we dont need Silver for lower cost transactions. Also I believe in Dr A. Fekete's argument that one of the main reasons Gold is good as money is because the above-ground stockpiles are comparatively much larger than the annual production which make the physical/industrial/jewelry supply/demand equation less (not?) relevant to its price. Whereby Silver being much more industrial (than Gold) would not fulfill its role as money as well..? However, if we still think that resources are going to be stretched and demand will pick up later, Silver prices could go up comparatively to "real" money (ie Gold) on a longer-term horizon. So: monetary and debt crisis: Gold outperforms Silver because it is less impacted by a commodity slump and fulfills a better role as money Followed by a pick up in demand for industrial commodities once the crisis has been "absorbed" and economic activity re-accelerates notably in India-China. Silver prices go up (in Gold terms). That's just my current hypothesis and I still need to do lots of research to refine my point of view but I would be interested to hear yours..

Do you think that will have any impact on Canadian-traded miners (ie I am not sure if the SEC can impose any rules there...)

WOOW, it predicts tomorrow's price too!!

My personal interpretation (FWIW) is that Gold's rally today is mostly driven by a flight from "safe" haven (Money markets) that are broken to "real" safe haven such as GOLD. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home So the cause of GOLD going up is at the same time potentially negative to the miners with cost of financing going up also - hence the "divergence" between stocks and physical Another reason to hold physical (although I dont...)

I think you should hedge that with some Gold Futures. What do you think? :P

Bullion in ones possession has burglary risk...

I was looking for John Nadler's commentary from Monday "mocking" gold forums predictions of a +50$ or +100$ on Sunday night while the Lehman bankruptcy was going on but guess what? kitco keeps archives from every author.. except for Mr Nadler... He must be eating his hat right now Anyway, I still find it hard to get over-enthusiastic at the moment (although I am very heavily (relatively) invested in Silver) as for all we (I) know it could all be going back down tomorrow with the huge volatility we have seen recently... Below is David Morgan's tentative at explaining what kicked today's rally: Members Only Alert from David Morgan to you September 17, 2008 Silver and Gold are both up 7% as this is being typed. The move up is based upon a number of factors but two of the main ones are linked below. Before you read these two stories it is important to point out that BOTH Silver and Gold are reacting to political and financial news. Some in the precious metals community adhere to belief that only gold is a safe haven, so far this has been proven FALSE! When the Twin Towers were hit, Silver soared 11% and gold soared 7%. Both the metals have been reacting to financial and political turmoil. More will be coming in our monthly report. First the political news... 16 Die in Attack on U.S. Embassy in Yemen http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/world/mi...amp;oref=slogin Now as even the mainstream press is referring to the credit crisis that myself and several others have forecast for so long, we see a whole new "sales force" has been deployed to sell the debt of the U.S. Government. You might consider asking your friends and associates what makes them feel more secure gold and silver coin in their hand, or a piece of paper backed by the government being able to extract payment from their neighbor? Here is the financial news. Treasury announces debt auctions for Fed http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jnS9Vm8...DNm4iAD938H19G0 Soon I will be off to the Silver Summit, and it will be difficult to reach me but our support is available by email or phone. Get Real, Buy Real The Silver Investor

FWIW - I see a potential double bottom at 9.5 (bottom of correction in 06). It is crazy (to me anyway) to think that anybody that bought Silver in the last 2 years (and has not sold) is now sitting on a loss!!

Interesting, so you are in effect selling the spread between kitco and ebay? What sort of volume do you achieve daily?

post 818 refers to ebay?? I think spot and futures price are very close for Silver (ie no disconnect)

Is Physical price (i.e Spot) not currently sitting very close to "Paper" price (ie nearby Futures contract)?

I have just read the Foreword to the second edition of Tomorrow's Gold by Marc Faber (this foreword was written before the US elections of 2004). I found the foreword very interesting, it basically tells how the hypothetical future economy history of our times could be. His vision includes: - Great monetary collapse and the introduction of a Precious Metal backed monetary system (in 2015) - End of fossil-fuel power generation (replaced by solar and wind) - The complete deflation of the derivatives bubble - The return of Austrian School of Economics as mainstream current of thoughts (hardly surprising prediction coming from Mr Faber!) - Thirld World War But more to the point, it includes a description of the relationship between the US (aka Leisure Island) and China (dubbed as Diligence Island) and how one of China's main strategies is to keep subsidising the US consumption by providing Credit. This in turn would keep export demand and industrialisation (for Chinese) with transfer of technologies and know-how. Another strategy that would be used by the Chinese is propping up the dollar - at least temporarily - to avoid US exports become competitive again and keep weakening their industrial base. The added benefit for the Chinese would be the possibility of buying "cheap" Gold and Silver. Finally using to their insider position on commodity markets they could manipulate the markets (increase/decrease local industrial demand for example) and profit from the price shocks that this would generate (accumulate commodities when prices are low or push prices up and weaken the Financial industry of the West). So to answer your point GoldFinger (finally) I guess it depends when the Chinese decide that the US are weak enough to be able to "bring them down as a house of cards" and switch from a position of "relative weakness" to a position of "relative strength". It might not all happen as he predicts but it still makes for an entertaining read.. PS: For those interested, This foreword is included in the 3rd Edition of the book as an appendix

Yes you could buy a whole petrol station and get 100,000 litres of petrol storage... Or buy one 100 oz bar of physical gold (and have the same £ exposure)... mmmh, not sure whats the most economical... even if the gold/oil ratio drops quite a bit...

Are u serious?

I dont see it move too much.. at 114.6 right now

I think I too.. But to be honest I am bit scared!

Whats your take on this sudden drop? PPT again?

I have noticed that. I use my broker (OANDA) and NetDania and they both have Silver <14 and Gold ~800 now after having dropped at 13.4 and 795 respectively What a freaking drop for Silver since 19.40 a few weeks ago. Its back to Sep 07 levels!

WOW Silver did not hold 14! (at 13.50 now) Will gold hold 800?

DrBubb, I understand your theory and thanks for sharing it but are these 2 bits not contradictory: I am assuming that the C wave would drive Oil price to a lower low (and Gold). I am not trying to criticise but I personally feel (worried) that Oil could easily fall further (maybe after a wave B/rebound) and this could drive Gold even lower than 800. Or do you think that Oil and Gold will somehow "decouple" before the Oil C wave - which would therefore not drive prices lower? I think Oil at 80 is a possibility (and so do you if I am not mistaken) and am worried that this could translate in Gold at less than 800..