romans holiday

QE2 to be announced tonight. If it fails to wow investors, the dollar which looks to have built a base, may rally. Even so, I doubt that will have that much of an impact on the gold price. Looking at the last correction in gold, on the last dollar rally, gold only corrected $100 or so and then went on to strengthen with the dollar.... showing that gold and the dollar are not always inversely correlated. RBA raised their rate to 4.75%. Following China's lead? Link to previous thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=190436

Well, everyone's an adult here... I assume. And should avail themselves of all the relevant facts/ risks/ perspectives when buying gold. Hypothetically speaking, say someone, relatively uninformed, rushed into gold having had the living daylights scared out of them by the hyper-inflation narrative, and then gold corrected 100 or 200 dollars. Having expected gold to only explode one way to the upside, and then seeing it seemingly crash, there is every likelihood they might panic and sell right at the wrong time. Best for new buyers to have a more rounded view of how gold performs in bull markets imo. I've advocated all along that if someone was without a position in gold, it would make sense to start building one.... no matter the present price. The linear chart you post gives a much stronger impression than the log chart that a large pull-back is due. An impression I'm sure you don't want to give.

Back a year, there was a real chance that the price would retrace to 1000. And it's still possible for gold to go back below 1000. However, this looks a lot less likely now given gold has become increasingly monetized in the minds of investors with the passage of time. I believe this has also served to reduce the volatility seen in gold as the log chart shows well. That gold could retrace $100 or so around this level wouldn't surprise me, or most gold bulls. Then again, it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't. With short term uncertainty, it's all about probabilities. That gold is going higher over the long term goes without saying, and has its basis in fundamentals/ logic, not the vagaries and mood swings of the present day market. I don't need to see short term strength in order to bolster the long term view.

Yup, if markets remain volatile and uncertain, this is sure to be reflected to both the upside and downside in silver. Full of excitement, but a cruel mistress at times. I'd rather be married to gold. So what do you think will be a good buying op this time?

Either that, or gold's finding its feet as a currency.

Sorry to keep harping on about this, but I reckon that linear chart is misleading. It implies that gold is just as volatile as before. Whereas, if you look at the log chart, the volatility in gold has died down quite a bit. Gold, against the dollar, looks to be strengthening now at a much more even and measured pace. Considering this, I'm thinking anywhere between 1300 and 1350 might be the buying zone here.

The date of the article is Wednesday, April 2, 2008... so that would make it early 2008 when he set his target date for the price right? Yeah, if the price was around 1600 in January, that'd be fair enough. It's still possible but seems to me quite unlikely. From the same article:

Actually, he set the date for that target only a couple of years back.... and I don't think we are quite within "touching distance" of it. A lot have been calling for higher prices in gold. Sinclair has become so well-known in the gold community by putting a number and time frame to it: http://www.goldprice.org/gold-news/2008/04...llars-gold.html This was no doubt based on his hyper-inflationary destruction of the dollar thesis. This is what now looks in doubt ... besides 1650 by january. Higher gold prices than the present are not much in doubt. The reason gold is going higher is not because of hyper-inflation but currency instability. The Fed has been doing all it can to stoke up [hyper] inflation expectations with its programs of QE. Even if this expectation declines from here, I reckon continuing instability will be the main factor for higher gold prices.

To reach Sinclairs target of 1650 [Jan next year], gold would have to go parabolic from here. He predicts such an early high price because he thinks hyper-inflation will play out. But there are other ways this could all play out. Gold may just continue to strengthen relatively slowly against the dollar[and all currencies] at around 20-25% a year. The prime reason being instability in the international currency system. No hyper-inflation of currencies necessary here... just the re-discovery of gold as a currency.

1300 looks a good buy. That's if my "reverse stop loss" of around 1350 isn't hit first.

It's the only thing that'll get me working when i get back to NZ... that or my own little enterprise. Stuff working for wages.

I wouldn't be surprised if the figure is lower than the market is expecting. They have done a great job of talking the market up, but will they really deliver "shock and awe". We'll soon find out. The market may already have a sniff of this, which would be why the dollar's threatening to strengthen here.

Lot of talk about whether the Fed will [be able to] deliver the expected trillion or so of easing. Looks to me even the mighty US government could be getting squeezed here; fiscal stimulus untenable due to domestic politics, and "shock and awe" easing becoming untenable due to international politics. Say they dropped a bomb of a trillion or so of easing on the market, other countries would no doubt mobilize against this and erect some capital/ trade barriers. There's a good chance the Fed doesn't live up to the great expectation the market has priced in, which could see the dollar go higher.

The US has pulled out all stops at G20 to keep the dollar low against the other currencies. Doubt this can last for long though. Trend still looks down, though my mental "reverse stop loss" may be hit soon to trigger a buy.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN...Weak_Hands.html

Gold could easily consolidate to 1250 here. I'll be holding off from buying for now, but will set a mental reverse stop loss in place at about $25 above the lowest dip. When/ if the price bounces through that, will pull the trigger.

Bit dated this, but fwiw the seasonal pattern has shown a dip going into November. Have a little more cash than I need so will be looking to make a purchase around the end of the month. Definitely my last purchase this time, as will have soon stopped earning an income. Another chart:

Got to agree. Shame is I won't be buying as already allish in.

That pesky dollar. So how low can silver go here? I'm thinking $20ish.....

Now that would be pushing it. Could see 1250 though.

1336. This looks like the long over-due correction. Around 1300 looks good for support:

Temporary setback. Dollar reversal?

Or, equally possible scenarios: $1650/ 1.40 = 1178 pounds $1550/ 1.40 = 1107 pounds

I'm not sure we're disagreeing. Inflation.. deflation... it's all relative. It depends how you want to measure it.