romans holiday

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=196016

... and anyway wouldn't that then break your latest most escalative trend line... putting the trend back to the more modest rate of 20%?

Nope. Too early to say yet. I'd say the next few months or so will be telling.

I wouldn't complain if the gains were greater, but I'll be content with a continued annual compounding of 20%. I don't see it as boring at all. Say gold consolidates first to 1300 in January, then in a year the price is at 1560, another year at 1860, and another at 2250 odd. No small change, especially if you think asset prices will also decline. This combination would suffice to see the often mentioned gold/ asset ratios met in a few years time.

Well, I think you could be splitting hairs there. Plus, I don't see much point in drawing a trend line from the lowest point of forced liquidation in '08.

Thanks. Go back a few years and gold was also a tough buy then. It will always seem expensive at whatever time you buy. Looking at the gold price on a chart, I don't see a parabolic rise in the price of a commodity threatening to collapse, but instead the [relatively] steady 20% yearly appreciation of an international prime currency [volatility looks to be reducing]. Perhaps looking at it this way also involves seeing through a currency-centric form of money illusion, where we're naturally habituated to the currency we use. It looks perfectly rational to me to swap some of your depreciating currency for an appreciating one... even at these seemingly crazy prices. It helps to put a decimal point in the price, so $1390 becomes 1.390 against the dollar [or whatever currency your using].

I thought Steven Hochberg on FSN was a good listen on silver today. I agree with his point that silver has spiked up to a trend-line and should retrace a fair bit.

This is why I'm sitting on gold... getting more conservative in my middle ages.... I'd add that from another angle it may prove to be the safest currency in the end.

Nervousness does not bode well for the investor. All emotion needs to be taken out of it. Recognizing the illusory nature of numbers helps with this task. For example, 950 once seemed expensive, now it seems cheap. Edit: this $40 correction means less than a $40 correction 3 years ago; in terms of gold today, you'd have to distinguish between 2007 dollars and 2010 dollars.... ie, the dollar is worth a third less against gold now than it was a few years ago.

Keep in mind that ther's also a "third way" here; maintain your core position in gold/ silver, and over and above this trade the volatility between silver and the US dollar. Why bother? Because you will be able to increase the value of your dollar "hedge" to match the increasing value of your core bullion position. This makes sense for two reasons: 1] You think the dollar is the second or third best form of liquidity [as in Exter's triangle]. 2] You entertain the possibility of being completely deluded [or the market being completely and utterly manipulated]... and then the dollar position is a pure and outright hedge. PS "out at 17.90" only relates to my smaller trading/ hedging position. Sound-bites.... devoid of context... and all that. That said, still looking for sub 17.90. It would take some structural crisis I reckon... something coming out of Europe next year perhaps... like Germany leaving the Euro. Going heavily into the double leveraged silver ETF [AGQ] could serve nicely to rebalance my cash "portfolio" as silver maybe then went to 50 over the next couple of years.

You're better at timing the trade than me. Perhaps a pure focus on the technicals is best here. The big gains I've made is by sitting on a large core position for years. I'm better at investing [divesting?] than trading. I don't mind my poor trading skill so much... as I also consider US dollars [oddly for most] a hedge, and will look for another op to trade against the volatility of silver. I assume you trade into dollars, and keep a large core position in gold/ silver?

Awesome! Straight into a gram of gold? Great looking site!

Gold May Gain on Demand for Currency Alternative; Silver Near 30-Year High http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-07/g...-year-high.html

No. It's a hedge against a core bullion position. Core bullion is not itself a hedge against TSHF scenario or hyper-inflation.... it's a prime currency to be liquid in. Now, seeing as I'm not a hyper-inflationist [though the dollar will depreciate against gold], I can trade say half my dollar hedge for silver, which I think will be volatile. That way, even as the core bullion increases in dollar value, I will have a good chance of the dollar hedge keeping up with the value of the bullion. It means also that I don't have to be 100% "invested" in gold..... and will just have to be content with the measly 50% I already have [and 10 in silver].

Silver did retrace from 20 to 10, so a retracement from 30 to 15 is possible..... but I wouldn't bet the house on it, and haven't. My silver trade is to increase my dollar "hedge". the aim is to not risk dollars here [strange as that may sound]. If silver pulled back to only say 22 or so, I'd still consider buying [say AGQ], sitting on and selling when silver gets to around 50 where I'd sell... could involve sittng a couple of years. I don't blub [did you mean blub?] about silver because I put 10% of my worth into it near 3 years ago... this was a core investment [kilo bars] and is non-tradable. The strategy outlined above involves seeing the dollar as the next strongest form of liquidity next to gold/ silver [i'm not a hyper-inflationist]. Because I think silver will be massively volatile, with the deleveraging undercurrent affecting it more than gold, I have a duplicitious approach to it; it's both a core investment and a trade against dollars. This helps to balance out a "portfoilio" that would otherwise soon become massively overweight in bullion [without having to sell core bullion].

Yes, also possible, which is why I've always kept a good core position. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a good correction before heading to that $50 at a later date.

The chart's suggesting two options for silver here: sideways for a bit as in leg 1, or a correction as in leg 2. The move up in 2 was from 12 to 20, which would equate with the recent move up from 18 towards 30 odd.

Awesome! That must put 100 ounces well down here off the chart.......................................................................100 Less than 2/3 the way there.... and at that rate may take a few more years. That looks a pretty convincing argument for converting some pounds into gold.

Because the use of log shows the real relations between things. Without using log, an illusion is given that the numbers ["fixed" units] themselves are what count. This is the essence of money illusion. I don't see it as fighting, but as a very useful discussion that needs to be had. Let's face it, the log chart is a lot more encouraging if someone's thinking of buyng gold. The linear is downright depressing... makes it look like you've missed the boat. edit “Many of the things you can count, don't count. Many of the things you can't count, really count.” Einstein

That's a much more encouraging chart... if one were thinking of swapping pounds for gold. I notice that CC mentioned the need for a shorter 10 year chart... yet you did it in linear. If I've drawn it right: In linear it looks like "gold to 100" has travelled 5/6 of the way... almost arrived [25/30]. In log it shows that in fact it's only travelled 3/5 of the way.... just over half way [18/30].

What message is that? If you're wanting to send the message to swap pounds for gold, then isn't the use of an undistorted chart better? Consider your gold/ UK housing chart: the linear chart has to be pretty depressing for someone sitting on a heap of pounds; it gives the impression that the crash has already happened... and is near bottoming. If it was plotted instead on a log chart, it would show that the crash still has quite some way to go..... another good third or so before it hits 100... and is therefore well worth swapping pounds for gold even at what seem lofty prices.

I much prefer this log chart of yours gf: edit

I'm undecided if I want the price to go up or down here. Thing is, I don't want to be competing with the hordes on my fossicking expedition to the Southern Alps.