romans holiday

Silver Skirts Edge of an $8 Crater By: Rick Ackerman http://news.silverseek.com/RickAckerman/1309240920.php

Could silver drop to $25 an ounce and then rebound to $60? By: Peter Cooper http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1309353964.php

Gold predictably continuing to consolidate around 1500 on the long term trend line. Should bounce on the blue line soon. This chart from a couple of months back.

Makes sense if one is building a core in bullion. But then I wonder, if the trend is clear, why not just pile in 50% or your liquid worth or so... and hold back with some funds if concerned about a large correction, or if concerned you might be being deceived by some evil genius.

Time will tell. The longer term trend is more significant imo... it also gives you more room to the downside if another correction comes. If you take the latest short/ medium term trend of "42%" as your guide [from the heavy correcting spike down in 2008, which seems an odd point to take as bullion always over-corrects], that would put gold at over 2100 this time next year. Could be, but more likely the price will be around 1700/ 1800 based on the long trend. Why not be a bit less patronizing to other views....a definitive answer could only be found by re-visiting it in a year or so's time. Or again, look at what has been predicted a year or so ago. I've been predicting a slow and steady increase in POG for quite some time... in contrast to the moon rockets, a rare sight these days.

Gold price trend is pretty clear, 20% odd appreciation annually against the reserve currency. Factoring in also the depreciation of assets [against the dollar], and you have an even greater relative appreciation of gold in real terms.

Gold is bigger than just [hyper] inflation concerns. As opposed to an inflation hedge, the article mentions gold as an alternative currency. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-16/gold-climbs-for-third-day-in-new-york-on-demand-for-currency-alternative.html

First of, long term bullish on silver. That said, a very good chance she's going to remain volatile.... and that in the aggregate may appreciate at a similiar rate to gold... being around 20% a year [in 2006, silver was 13 dollars]. 20% appreciation a year would put silver around 32/33... but could well over-correct. A long term log chart could be crucial to seeing where silver may go in the short/ medium term here. The thin blue line is presently around 25.

Hi ML, I'm good at the mo enjoying a life of leisure.... though will start manual labouring myself on a long time acquaintance's orchard next week for a month or so. Funds earned will go into a pretty flash metal [gold] detector, which will be put to work in the Central Otago/ Queenstown area this summer. Bring it on. All you say in regard to "printing" I see as part of the equation. Other aspects such as the deflation of asset prices, and then currencies against gold, bring me to a novel view of things which seeks to accomodate both inflationary and deflationary aspects. The crucial point is that "money printing" will not lead simply to more money chasing goods and assets, and hence conventional inflation. Rather, QE adds to the debt burden on currencies/ economies, this in turn weakens currencies against gold [now being effectively monetized]. This at the international level. At the national level, continued debt deflation leads to the possiblity of fiat currencies appreciating against local assets [even as both depreciate against gold... assets doubly so]. Within this context, commodity prices could remain volatile, where they first spike on speculation [inflation expectations], and come off again with moments of deleveraging/ short-covering [deflation expectations]. The solution could be a matter of gold slowly and steadily rising to a market price where it effectively "recapitalizes" economies... and where it also becomes more economical to mine. It's all relative, and depends on your perpective. I could [and do] say everything deflates against gold. Or, you could say the price of gold must inflate. But I think it's problematic to say that the price of everything must inflate [hyper-inflation]. This would involve saying asset prices [property/ stocks] etc will "go to the moon" [along with gold] which I think is highly dubious. I think the current trend of these past few years will continue into the future, which makes gold even a good buy here for those that haven't yet bought.

It's possible that gold could explode out of its long term trend. But today could be quite different to the 70s, where there were not so many deflationary pressures. If the trend continues at its present rate of around 20% appreciation anually, then the gold price, in US dollars will be around 1800 next year.... and then around 2160 the following year. Pretty good, don't you think?

Indians certainly love their gold. Picked up a bit of casual work picking kiwifruit with an Indian gang for the past few weeks. On the last day, the topic turned to gold. After pulling out all the gold chain necklaces and flashing the gold rings, they stared at me as if to say "well, show us what you got". I pulled out my vial full of gold flakes from the South Island rivers. Expression, priceless.

Calm down man.

Sweet. The trend is pretty clear. Steady as she goes.... year on year.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/christopher-laird/is-stagflation-the-long-term-trend

Numont and Glass Earth are looking at opening some more mines here in NZ. This is part of a natural process; gold rises in price until it becomes economically viable to mine/ produce more of it. imo the re-monetization of gold also co-incides with the re-capitalization of economies. Why would governments want to interfer with this process, or supress the price of gold. As it is, the price of gold is moving up at a slow enough pace not too get people too excited about it... but at a pace where many wrongly suspect it's in a bubble.

Bit quite on the gold thread these days. Boring old gold plodding along,,,, 20% odd appreciation annually.

Comparing apples and oranges. Is gold a "major asset class", or a major currency? This is the major question. If a currency, you'd expect it to appreciate [in a deflation] as asset prices decline. The chart is a little troubling if you see gold as merely an inflation hedge", and then see that other supposed inflation hedges [assets] have declined in price.

Assume markets will be volatile and uncertain.... and assume this will be good for gold in the aggregate. Take a pragmatic approach, and draw a distinction between gold and more volatile silver. Buy and hold gold [and a bit of a silver if you want]. Then [attempt to] hedge gold by trading the volatility of silver against the currency of your choice. I think either Yen or US dollar are the best for this as they move "contrary" to silver/ gold. Relax and chill.

Then Silverfinger you really must be!

Gold had looked due a correction. Could go as low as 1430.

And mostly into gold, which has also performed well since then, and I half expect the price to be "stickier". A trade missed with silver/ gold, or silver/ dollar but there's always another. I'll continue to play the devils advocate [against myself] with the volatility in silver.... in order to hedge gold.

Could well do. Mid 20s, perhaps lower, could possibly be a good buying/ trading opportunity. Given the recent explosive move upwards, this has to be considered possible.

Hang on a sec. Isn't Eric Sprott, an uber silver bug/bull in the media? And if the above is true, wouldn't that leave him open to charges of "ramping" in order to profit form it?

If you look at the previous chart I posted, the volatility [in real terms] is remarkably reduced with gold appreciating at a much more ordered and steady rate, which has been my prediction for quite some time. Nowhere in the past couple of years have we seen the huge moves to the upside, and then the large corrections that were typical earlier. The reason for this, imo, is the monetization of gold, where CBs/ investors buy gold increasingly as an alternative currency.

Gold looking due to consolidate towards the long term trend line.