romans holiday

If it's at all similiar to the previous pattern, it may take a few years to see silver through 100...... before perhaps retracing to 50. One volatile Queen.

Wow, silver through the 27 barrier. My heavy buy order [AGQ at 40] was hit overnight. Will consider freeing up a little more bullion to buy a little more of this instrument in the next few weeks. 25 looks on the cards now, which is a 50% retracement, which would reflect the 2008 retracement from 20 to 10.

No, I won't hold out for that figure from an old trade. I doubt silver would go that low... mid 20s looks like a more reasonable buying target.

Tom O'Brien's may have dug himself into a biased bearish position. He called gold badly a while back, and has since then consistently wished for gold to come lower. Will be interesting to see if these levels hold, when the tide of opinion is swinging towards lower levels

Yes, always entertain the possibility of being completely deceived/ self-deluded... hence hedge. In 2008, silver corrected from 20 to 10. Wouldn't the equivalent this time round be 25... down form 50?

The large dollar hedge about to come into play. Buy order in at AGQ 40. The previous upleg went from 10 to 50, so will look to sell at 100. Which would put AGQ at... something ridiculous.

Better to trade silver which is more volatile. Or even better, stay long gold, and trade silver as a hedge. Staying long gold these past 4 years, doubled my liquid worth, and then enabled me to purchase property with half my liquid worth. Free free-hold property anyone?

Gold on the 200 MDA. Where's the drama?

Good to see some realistic calls being made on gold. It makes the case for owning gold more credible for those thinking of buying.

Would be for first time buyers I guess.

Never was that enthusiastic about the large spike up to 1900 as large spikes can lead to large corrections. If the correction is "equal and opposite" to the spike, then the price will dip a little below the 50 week moving average, which it's sitting on now. The next spike, perhaps mid next year, is likely to go well through 2000.

Silver finally down into the 20s, my target buying zone. AGQ down to 46, and still have a buy order on at 40 should silver plunge further. Starting to get an itchy trigger finger, but think I'll hold off for another week or so.

Gold down? This from near 3 months ago. The best thing to do with gold is just buy some then walk away from it. Right, back to the vege garden.

Yes, looking at the long term log chart, it was obvious at the time that the spike would correct. Predictable, and predicted on this thread. In the context of the hum-drum trend, the spikes and corrections are just so many storms in a teacup.

OK, so lets put the fundamentals aside, and focus on the chart. The chart has consistently proven that those who bought gold when the RSI was touching 50, have continued to do well. With this in mind, your target of 1500-1600 looks too low on the face of it. Is it impossible? No, but neither is it likely. For the majority of those wanting to buy gold, a good buying point would be around here... or perhaps around 1650. Sounds high? Gold has never been an "easy buy". But then the earlier you bought, the easier it is to hold. Am I being complacent? No, because even though "overweight" in gold, I am not "100% in", and am hedged for the possibility of forced deleveraging. I imagine most that have bought gold are likewise hedged in cash and other assets. All the talk of complacency is really a "straw man" argument against buy and holders because it's not an argument against the average buy and holder at all but rather against the gold [or should I say silver] bug who is 100% in and 100% certain.... who is in reality probably a fictitious [straw] character.

Bubb, I really think you need to relax a little. Most here do not criticize your lifestyle... you are free to live how you want to. Those that have criticized your making a living as a trader are a small and vocal minority, and seem to have moved on from this thread of late. No doubt they will be back and very vocal when the market once again moves again in their favor. Then the "boot will be on the other foot once again". Why not rise above the silly polarization created by the "100% certain 100% in" minority? Most buy and holders of gold do not belong to that camp... and your criticism of B&H fails to draw the distinction. Your dire warnings against B&H have been noted, but are starting to sound shrill on this thread, which has a reasonable bias towards B&H. Note, I've often criticized the "100% certain 100% in" minority myself, but have never confused that with B&H. On the contrary, I've always advocated a reasonable purchase of gold with a reasonable portion of your funds. As you well know, I've personally hedged this by taking a different approach with the more volatile silver. The majority of other B&H'ers no doubt hedge and diversify in ways that suit them. Why not live and let live in regard to B&H? Why confuse that with the critical minority that have obviously annoyed you? There are going to be as many different strategies as there as different kinds of people. No one way is right... more like it's this dogmatic attitude that is wrong.

And you should chill out a bit and foster a "live and let live" attitude. For the non day trader, the chart is abundantly clear that buy and hold has paid off very well.... and with the minimum of time and effort. Give it its dues. I think the "argument" you have is with the 100% "all in" and 100% certain crowd. Actually, the majority that buy gold... and hold, have only put a reasonable percentage of their worth into it... and more often than not hedge that "investment".

Trend intact. Yawn. 50 on the RSI provides good buying points.

Yes, but also speaks volumes against the hyper-inflation hype of silver to the moon....soon...

How does the longer term look worse than the shorter term? The short term chart is saying hold off, and can be called bearish. The long term chart is saying hold off for now and buy on the consolidation... and is bullish. Don't you see on the face of it an upward trend... albeit a volatile one? 15 is possible again, on another round of forced liquidation akin to Lehmans, but is it probable? Of course, I guess it comes down to what your motive is for buying... whether it be to establish a position, to trade against dollars, or to trade a portion of an existing position.

"It is hard to be bullish, short term, when you see a chart like this, and especially if you take notice of the very light volume on the latest rise." Corrected. ... when you look at a chart like this, ie, the longer term:

Just to add, the above liquidity triangle [the liquidity prefernece] explains why both gold and bonds appear to be in a bull market... something that continues to mystify many.

My money is on the latter option: And it's relative; asset prices decline relative to currency, and currencies decline relative to gold [some more than others].

Ah, but think of all those gazillion holes of debt that has a claim on all those gazillions of "Janus-faced" money.