romans holiday

This is poor form fitkid. The general rule on an investment forum is not to ridicule the decisions others make.... let alone others.

Bet me to it. Streuth.... Explosive move upwards in Kiwi.... as the kiwi is also cratering against the US dollar.

Might get that spike to 1800.

Difference between the two is gold is a form of liquidity.... gold stocks, investment. The story of gold stocks being a leverage on gold is not so straight forward. Doesn't mean to say that they might not perform in the end.... but that there is a further element of risk/ investment involved with stocks over and above gold itself. Makes sense to first have a solid core in gold, and then decide whether or not you wanted to branch out into stocks etc.

Pity is wasn't logarithmic. Palladium isn't an option on Goldmoney is it? Edit. Yes it is. Could be tempting when/ if the ratio's bit lower. Any chnace of a gold/ palladium chart?

And just to remind you that this was also posted here just a couple of days earlier: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2874&view=findpost&p=222159 It's a fool's game to predict with certainty the very immediate direction the price of gold will take. The trend is clear though, which puts the immediate moves, whichever way, in context. Even if gold spiked to 1800 here and then consolidated.... that would still be within "these levels", with the trend in mind,and makes your comment look a bit silly and premature.

Haven't they been grounded for good?

On the following sentence, which was: "Distinct concerns reflecting the currency and commodity component of each perhaps [which may over-lap of course]?". Just a thought with a question mark. Interesting that silver is presently around 38, don't you think?

Recent differences between silver and gold are interesting. Gold spiking up here on debt concerns, whereas silver spiked up more on inflation concerns. Distinct concerns reflecting the currency and commodity component of each perhaps [which may over-lap of course]? Another family member is thinking of buying. Crazy thing is if she buys [without paying the bullion premium] she will be buying at the same price as those who bought 3 years ago. This is beacuse she's buying in Kiwi dollars, and those who bought in the deleveraging scare of '08 bought with a hugely weakened kiwi dollar. How's that for currency volatility.....

Looking a little toppy here. Wouldn't be surprised to see it consolidate around these levels for a bit.

Bernanke is bound to have a go. Not sure if he can do much more with the politics heating up against him. Even if he manages to get more stimulus through, that would most probably be the end of it, and monetary policy would have spent itself. The drive to liquidity won't be dampened... good for gold, and not disastrous for the dollar.

Yep, wouldn't be surprised to see a short squeeze in the dollar. I doubt it will do much to the price of gold on the down-side though. It's shown a nice and steady increase these past few months. So steady that 1650 ended up being a bit of an anti-climax without much fanfare i think the rockets are reserved for the big spikes these days. Maybe they'll come out on a spike to 1800 or so... could well then fizzle as the price consolidates around there for another six odd months.

Well, it depends how you want to draw your chart. Personally, I don't see the point of taking the spike down in 2008 as the starting point for a trend line. I think that spike puntuates a longer term trend line... one which mediates between the odd spike down and the spikes up. I doubt it will take much time to see that latest trend line broken to the downside..... substantiating the case for a more modest trend [the trend that has also been seen from mid 2009 to the present... this side of the deleveraging in '08]. Time will tell.

My guess is the same old steady appreciation of 20% odd a year against the dollar. Could spike to 1800 and then spend a year consolidating to that level if the past is anything to go by.

Yep, it's a toughie. Because most are unsure of gold, I stress the need to be liquid.... in the strongest currencies. Under the guise of diversity, gold can then be sold to them....and dare I say the reserve currency [keeping in mind that those I know if they are liquid at all, only have Kiwi dollars].

My brother-in-law bought a few years ago right when the kiwi was cratering. In NZD, the price was 1800 [near 2000 by the time he paid the premium for bullion]. The price of gold then cratered as the Kiwi strengthened. He has only now got back to his original buying position.... not sure if I'm back in his good books quite yet.

Neither has POG done a lot in NZ and Aussie dollars over the past couple of years due to these currencies strengthening in parallel with gold [the big move up was a few years back]. The massive explosive gains in gold, as priced in those currencies, will be made when the "risk off" de-leveraging trade re-emerges once again, and they crater relative to the dollar and gold. Price in NZD is around 1850 with NZD at 0.87 against the dollar [and climbing towards parity]. With NZD at say back down to 0.50, the NZD price of gold could explode upwards over-night to north of $3000. Shame I got no NZD..... I hear Aliveandkicking has though.... now's your chance AAK!

Don't you think the chart's distorted without the use of a log chart? Put the long term on a log chart and there is no peak... just a hum drum steady trend of 20% odd appreciation year on year.

A contra-thought within a thought. Would hate to be overly tamed and civilized. An all time high at 1580.

Yep, only 1000 bucks worth soon to be 2000 bucks worth.

lol No panning at the moment.... but getting prepared for my next trip down south for the summer. Now winter. Looking to buy a solar panel for the camper, and a decent detector for the nuggets. Pruning kiwifruit at the moment in order to keep fit and have a bit of pocket money. Last time's effort with pan and sluice-box:

I never have. I've always approached gold as a form of liquidity.... not as primarily investment, or speculation [QE is seen in the context of an on-going global deflation.... merely a "rear-guard action" to avoid a complete rout in markets... and to pump prime speculators].Granted that many are investing/ speculating in gold, I think it is the monetary aspect of gold that is increasingly winning out, where "how it prices" [assets and other currencies] progressively eclipses "how it is priced" by currencies. Before the transition is complete [the monetization of gold], there is a good chance of renewed price volatility on jitters in the wider speculatively driven markets. Yes, due diligence must be done on one's own intellectual constructs [to treat theory as dogma is to mis-allocate {intellectual} resources]. The model is only as good as far as it's corroborated by real experience. An enlightened scepticism should allow there's always the chance that the model will blow up along with real world developments... which is why you should always hedge.

The use of a linear chart over such a long time span invalidates the chart imo. If there was a correction [below the long term trend on the log chart] it wouldn't take gold as low as the linear chart would suggest.

When gold was 800 an ounce a 20 dollar move was twice as significant as it is now. Gold would now have to move up 40/ 50 dollars in an hour to have the same effect.

If previous spikes are anything to go by, it's around 2 years before a new price is reached.