romans holiday

Congrats... but was a little more information than was needed.

I have kilo bricks in a private vault, but most of the silver I am in now is with GoldMoney. I only want to sit on gold at GoldMoney, I am happy to trade my silver for Yen though of course with the aim of accumulating silver ounces. I certainly would not want to feel the need to sell when silver dives. Buy on weakness and sell on strength is my policy [only with trading funds mind, like most here I have a core position which is held].

Yes, but the immediate momentum was broken, so threw in the towel [but didn't sell my silver...just 10%], even though technically 13.80 held. Silver might track sideways just a little here before pushing up again... looks like there is a bit more life in this inflation trade yet. The ratio reversed to 67 but is now nearing 66 and back on track.

With regard to gold, I think he assumes, like most commentators, that the relation between the dollar and gold will remain inversed. The inflationists asume gold will rise when the dollar falls, conventional deflationists assume that gold will fall as the dollar rises, but there is a third scenario; both gold and the dollar could strengthen together. Given that both gold and the dollar are considered safe havens, I think this last scenario is most likely. The dollar would strengthen as capital flows back into it, capital will also flow into gold which would see a linear rise in the price rather than a parabolic one. The following inverted triangle [posted a few times now] portrays the dynamic which will subvert the assumption that gold and the dollar must somehow always be on opposite sides of the trade. The triangle shows what happens in a drive to liquidity where gold does best with the dollar a close second. Double post.

Yes, i wonder though if this will be the big turn. The Wall Street types may have got a bit of a fright but they were, after all, al lining up to buy the Dow on a dip. This might happen yet. I just wonder if the inflation trade has been wound up enough yet. Then when the unwind comes it should be spectacular a la Hoye. I am sticking with a post QE floor for gold of 900.

Yes, I am not too worried about the lows..... the main thing is to buy at low prices. If you miss the opportunity to sell on a wave up, no big deal, just wait for the next wave because it will come. Now is tanking incredibly against Yen and will be looking to buy in the next few days... am not so fussy buying at the bottom as I am about selling at the top.

How low can it go?

Well, looks like the up-trend is broken for now. Well done Z, here is your virtual prize! Now, who would like to guess how long it will go?

Interesting to note that gold has been volatile in US dollars. But in pounds looks flat. Sterling is dipping at the same time as gold which is reflecting dollar strength. If you are looking for a dip to buy, it would be best to hold either US dollars or Yen imo.

Everything down today. 13.80 still holding thus far. From:

Yes, he is away with the monetarist fairies. He should have a read of what is going on in the real world. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...s-capacity.html Exactly, I have been hammering away at this very point. Friedman [and the quantity theory of money] is being falsified today.

BIG call DB.... considering many here have over 50% of their worth in gold.

Yes, I also think deflation is the big picture, and think the market will remain very volatile..... alternating between inflation and deflation trades. Buy silver on weakness and sell for Yen on strength, rinse and repeat. [only with my trading funds mind]. Gold is not volatile enough to trade. I think it has settled down and I now consider profits taken in accumulating ounces [core position not for trading]. A couple of surprises in store could be a relatively stable gold price [in dollars] and commodities crashing again. I doubt Hommel and co will see this coming. I believe the monetary component might give silver more of a bounce than the more mundane commodities [also keeping in mind that investors are concerned about currencies]. I reckon it would be quite a good buy at 80:1 or so. It will be interesting to see how the "band" plays out. As a metal-buying deflationist, I am thinking of upping the band from the usual lower 50:1 and upper 80:1 to maybe something like 55/60:1 to 85/90:1.... and slowly move out of one into the other as the band width is approached.

Yes, Hoye is a heavyweight in my book and helped me make my decision, though a smallish one as I have only started to lighten up a little. I still think we might see a bit more life in this wave up before it rolls over. Still have my eyes on a ratio of 60. I am still mostly in silver, and if it does turn down here I am not too concerned as I see the larger trend being up... also could be a good buying op with cash and gold positions....... if it goes low enough.

After listening to Prechter and Hoye's latest bear blasts I decided to lighten up just a little on silver which I am heavily in....just 10% into Yen. Still mostly in silver as I still half expect another push higher and also have a dollar position if the market drops.

Surely you would have to be in US dollars to take advantage of this. If gold went down that much, could be a lot of markets and currencies also go down in sympathy.

Yes, when people buy insurance, it involves a small fraction of their worth/income. That is why I think the term "insurance" is a misnomer. I agree with you that people would be doing well to buy gold and silver with more than a fraction of their worth... but then they would be thinking of gold and silver as sound currencies. It is hardly "insurance" when you have something like 50% or more of your worth in monetary metals [personally, I think 50% is better than 100% so as to be hedged in other currencies, but I take your point that 100% in gold and silver with your liquid worth would be a lesser percentage considering wider assets you may have].

If you considered it "insurance", you wouldn't own much of it. If you thought it was a 100% certainty, you wouldn't own anything else. Best to hedge and own quite a bit, and other stuff besides.... and accumulate by trading these on the swings if you so wish.

Did you even read my post? It is hardly based on Prechter.

Cheers for posting that vid. Always good to hear what Prechter has to say. Though I agree with his larger view of deflationary decline in commodities and stocks, I differ on him on some points...... fwiw. 1] I think we could see stocks and commodities go a bit higher yet before they roll over after the summer. 2] Prechter, though he has started to look at gold as a currency in other articles, still views it here as primarily a commodity. I think this is a mistake and gold in particular, as opposed to silver, is increasingly being "monetized" in the minds of investors. This monetization reflects in reduced volatility in gold which has been the case since the advent of QE. Also, keep in mind that some currencies, such as the Aussie, Kiwi and I would suggest Sterling. move up and down on the risk trade. With a renewed safety trade, those waiting in pounds for a dip in gold might be disappointed. Maybe the dip will come with dollars and Yen, but then again it might be a very small dip given the "monetization" of gold. 3] A distinction has to be drawn between gold and silver. Where gold is starting to achieve a higher status as a currency, silver for now has a foot firmly in the commodity world. It will soar on the inflation trade and dive on the deflation trade. Silver surfing anyone? [i am thinking of starting to move out of silver, which I am heavily in, into dollars, Yen and gold when/if it gets above $16]. 4] Though I agree with Prechter that the dollar is not toast anytime soon, I am not as bullish as I imagine Prechter is on the long term future of the dollar. Listening the the video, it seems Prechter has firmly in mind a dollar/gold inverse relationship carrying on into the future. I think this could slowly break down as gold comes to be increasingly seen as an alternative currency given the increasing burden of debt on conventional currencies. The deflation dynamic will see the dollar rise short term, yet the fundamentals of the dollar will see it decline in the long term. The dollar's loss here will be gold's gain as investors become less certain about the dollar. Though they will both benefit as safe havens in deflation, this would reduce the volatility between them and also the chance of a massive dip in gold. So in sum, in the short term, I remain bullish on gold, but am turning bearish on silver. In the long term, I remain bullish on both.

One could be "either side" here with the ratio at 65. Sort of a no man's land. I am assuming there will be a bit more life yet in the inflation trade before we get another deflation scare down which could take the ratio very high indeed. Time will tell. Because I am fundamentally in the deflation camp, I imagine I will be getting very itchy fingers with the ratio at 60 and lower.

will sit tight for now. Only when the ratio moves lower would I consider moving into dollars, Yen and gold... and then only because I am very heavily in silver at the moment. Once at 60, I would consider starting to lighten up a little into Yen and dollars [at a later date would go straight back into silver on the deflation trade ala Hoye]. If we got down as far as 50, I would move most of the rest into gold.

Quite a ride silver.

Looks up to me. The right shoulder [2] has already [just about] been taken out hasn't it? I think everything is moving up here.. with silver tagging along. Ratio now near 64.

Do you have a link for that? I thought he was becoming more bullish on gold these days.