romans holiday

Like the title. I reckon we definitely have a floor in gold here. Thats the good news, "bad" news is I think it may take some time before we see any great breakout to the upside. Most expect this to happen with a dollar collapse so with the dollar looking weak here, this month might be quite telling as to where gold will go. Either it will go parabolic as the dollar collapses, or will rise incrementally as the dollar stabilizes. Of course there is a third option where the dollar not only recovers but strengthens. I reckon that in this scenario, with a floor under gold, gold would strengthen alongside the dollar, which would see the gold/dollar inverse relation broken. If you overlay US Pog with the USD index, this relation is already starting to look very weak.

The Yen could also be a good buy here/soon. I am thinking of sinking putting income into Yen shortly.

If there is massive volatility [assuming inflation and deflation scares], if you manage to trade silver with gold and back again on the ratio, if you can accumulate further metal with your metal, where is the wall of worry? If you already have a decent postion, why not focus on the ratio, utilize the volatility, and forget the day to day dollar price.

If tempted to buy silver.... go quickly to deflationist forums and read how all commodities will collapse in a deflation. This should deflate the desire to buy silver. Seriously though, it is likely to be very volatile for a longish time so what's the hurry. Then if you get it for bargain prices, the volatlity will be a lot less worrisome.

Wow... silver back down to 13.48. Mind you it did go up very fast from 12.60 odd. I wonder if we could see another good buying op with it going below 13 again. Though I was buying on the last dip I missed the 12 dollar range.... always buy too quickly. Note to self: do not buy anymore silver [you have quite enough] until it goes below $12. This might take a few months of waiting, just try to be happy with those dollars you have for the meantime.

That's a purdy picture. I think the trend should hold.

+1. He is a charlatan.... the primary product he sells is himself. I hope he doesn't create too much bad publicity if gold does not rocket to 15,000 this year.

Patience Timothy. At least the ratio is still around 68.

Buy puts on all of them.

The other thing is, a lot who have cash and in a position to buy are being sucked [not derogatively meant] up by the market here. There simply will be a lot less people in a position to buy in the near future. Many that manage to sell will be relieved to have had a lucky escape and will not rush back into property. The market needs a steady stream of buyers to support high prices. Ergo prices will have to come down when the "inventory" of buyers dry up.

Interesting take on oil. The volatility of gold has reduced quite a bit, yet the price remains high even though supposedly the major economic panic is over. My theory is QE has put a floor under it at 900 with gold effectively "monetized" in the minds of investors. People are approaching it as a currency now and not as a commodity/inflation hedge. It might require another round of panicked forced lquidation for it to go lower but even then I doubt gold will go down much compared to stocks and commodities, and then only briefly. As a strengthening currency, I do not expect the price of gold to go parabolic. This would entail other major currencies to [hyper] inflate and devalue which does not look likely anytime soon. Rather, I reckon gold will steadily strengthen in price against other currencies as investors become increasingly wary of public debt levels, stagnant economies, and deleveraging consumers... and the potential of devaluing currencies in the future.

What's your rationale for being in oil bt? How does that square with your current deflation views? The price now is getting high... it might get to the high 70s but it's not being driven by demand but by investor speculation. Looks very vulnerable to another sell off soon, don't you think?

What's this? Coming over to the dark side?

What's all this talk about ducks? How about plastic decoys and golden geese instead?

Well, I am not looking for weakness in gold here. I think gold will become one of the most stable currencies here [comparatively over a longer period of time] with a solid base above 900 though at the same time I do not think it will be going parabolic anytime soon. With already a good position in gold, I am looking for weakness and strength in the dollar. On dollar weakness I will buy. On dollar strength, by which I mean a spike which would involve most probably a deflation scare, I will sell dollars for silver [silver will dip more than gold]. On the inflation trade/mode which will see the markets move up, I would be selling silver for gold and profits will be considered taken. The ratio has returned to the trend as I thought it would and hopefully if we get a good inflation scare and the Dow to 10000 on this next wave up, the ratio at 50 could be in our sights.

The thing is the doolally markets will not move in one way but go up then down, and up and down again. So even if the dollar slides to 70, have you lost anything if it spikes later to 90 or 100? Why not just wait for the market to come to you? Buy on weakness and sell on strength.

Another way of looking at it is you have to "choose your poison". If I were to sell some gold, I would have to buy dollars, or pounds or Euros etc. Then I might be a little nervous about my dollars or Euros or whatever and might want to sell them for something else.....so it could turn into an exercise in futility. The best option here is to diversify your currencies and perhaps take advantage of strengths and weaknesses [personally, I look to buy a major currency on weakness]. Of course, the best thing would be just to buy a self-sufficent piece of land and live a life of care-free simplicity... that has to be real wealth.

Great post. Scratch the surface of some bears and you find a simmering bull. It will take a lot to kill this psychology. Two generations have seen continual inflation. First they saw monetary inflation in the seventies, after that they saw two decades of asset inflation which has created not only a certain psychology but a spending habit where money is not properly valued. Old habits die hard and are the reason why we will continue to see "irrational" bounces in most markets for some time to come. If only people could be patient, sock some money into various currencies and monetary metal then sit back and relax.

Well, its all about diversity... in the right asset class of course; liquidity. I don't think you will go to far wrong if besides having physical you used goldmoney. You can buy silver, gold and even platinum now plus keep some money in various currencies to take advantage of come what may. Opening an account is pretty straight forward. Euro-sterling parity rate? Is that a subtle reference to all fiat heading to 0?

Why not make use of GoldMoney? That way you can keep a variety of currencies and buy when it suits you.

EVERYTHING pivots on this. The monetary system has.... hard to find polite language here, but you now what I mean. It is just not going to go back to normal, especially when you consider that "normal" was actually abnormal in the first place. Properties were massively over-inflated to pay for over-inflated lifestyles and egos. EVERYONE, bankers, consumers and government were caught up in a booming bubble-like Disneyland. In America they only had Disneyland there so it could be pointed to and people could say "No, that is fantasy land, relax, don't worry, you are living in reality".

Works both ways... they might have to manipulate the prices up one day... to convince the market of inflation and to get 'em spending. I won't be complaining.

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=116555

how about inflation scare? Or even just plain confusion con-flation.

Double post. Long-termish charts for the three metals here. Seems to me these graphs are signalling: Gold= Safe Investment Silver= Speculative Trade Platinum= Gambling The gold graph is almost a thing of beauty. imo the complete recovery in the gold price as compared to the other metals reflects that it has been effectively "monetized" in the minds of investors. Gold looks like it wants to go higher soon. I would not be surprised to see it go through 1000 sometime this summer or shortly after, but then I also wouldn't be surprised to see it subsequently come back down through 1000... before heading higher of course. I think the level we are at now [900] is the new base.