nicejim

mmm. Nice work.

 

So reading from your chart... if paper stays the same, gold goes to $3000/toz over two years if the same move is repeated in the same time frame?

It's a chart of the goldminers index priced in gold. It could portend a slump in gold whilst equities stay where they are.

GoldMoney are doing a customer/visitor survey at the moment, if you visit the homepage. There's a section to let them know what could be improved. As soon as I finished the survey I remembered that paying storage fees with metal, on which commission has already been paid, is something I've thought for a while they should improve - to be more like BV. Needless to say, I didn't mention it. So, if anyone feels the same way and is yet to take the survey...

BV silver: I got an email a week ago to say my account was enabled for silver. So if anyone doesn't have it yet, they might simply be phasing it in. You pay for Gross weight, not Net, so beware when comparing prices.

Yes, its true - I thought this was common knowledge?

 

However, it's not all roses as you have to pass certain criteria and lasts for 2 years. Obviously, some are better at passing the criteria than others!

 

More here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7956015.stm

 

Broken Britain in action - Either work hard at being honest, or work hard at being dishonest. Either way this country is deferring the pain.

That one is for a temporary loss of income, perhaps for situations such as when BA staff had to work for free for a month. And it's a deferral of interest scheme rather than government payment. There is another one for unemployed people, where the interest is paid on loans up to £175k for up to 2 years. So, no need to get a job if you've got an I/O mortgage! Repayment mortgagees pay for this and can't benefit. They need to buy private insurance for themselves as well as buying insurance for the I/O guys.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/7601147.stm

Renters can claim housing benefit but I'm not sure how much effort the government goes to to keep them in their home for any length of time.

Strong words from Tom Stevenson (a market and investment commentator at Fidelity International) in the Telegraph:

Hard assets, the king of which is gold, and the shares of companies that produce them are a must for anyone looking to survive this institutionalised generational theft.

But platinum could be better.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...to-economy.html

bFDCEVpxW7g

If you look closely, he's shouting "Suckerrrrrrr!" whilst running to the nearest gold dealer with £600k in notes

has anyone here established how existing customers - that did abuse the lax standards at the time - will be treated, upon renewel?

 

...

 

As the above article points out, returning to three times salary is unworkable given current prices - without some major corrections. Also, there seems to be the potential for a pre 2010 implication rush?

I think Cgnao has a smillie for that. If their income has improved they might get away with it.

...

It's more to do with affordability than income multiples. I suppose this makes sense, because if someone can afford £500 rent they can afford £500 mortgage, nomatter what their income is. This will have to be stress tested for higher interest rates though.

http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Commun.../2009/140.shtml

I agree.

 

I have noticed that the Royal Mint has upped its production run for the 2010 sovereign from 75,000 to 250,000.

 

http://www.royalmint.com/store/BritishGold/UKB10RN.aspx

Apparently there were 9,100,000 in 1979. Does that show the lack of public awareness these days?

http://www.cruzis-coins.com/sovs/Sovmintage.html

Interesting graph and article which shows the times of day the cartel intervenes to suppress prices.

 

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Ed Steer also noticed that one. He received this in an email at the end of 2007:

"Did you realize that EVERY new multi-decade high gold has reached, from $425 or so in 2003 to $735 in 2006 to $843 in November to $843 last night, has occurred at 3 am EST on a Sunday night? EVERY SINGLE TIME! And EVERY SINGLE TIME gold has been IMMEDIATELY clocked to make sure that any excitement/sentiment/follow through that might occur is IMMEDIATELY squashed."

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php

"Gold sentiment seems to diverging: America versus the rest."

Russia added 400,000 ounces in September.

"At this point in the year, over 1.02 million ounces of gold and 22.09 million ounces of silver have been converted into eagles."

"the ECB Central Bank squadron appears to be out of the gold market. Last week saw a 'sale' of only 0.09 tonnes"

No chance. Already poured everything we've currently saved into PMs.

 

I was on a training course a couple of weeks ago and people were lamenting the state of the £. Incredibly, people did not realise you could buy gold so readily. Really hammered it home when I took a lovely shiny maple in the next day...

 

We've all got to do our bit!

 

(edit: clarification)

Tax affairs and home-storage of valuables are things best kept secret I use a 1/10oz Krug for educational purposes, all the rest is in Zurich...ish.

Congrats on the sale.

...just a handful of sales at the top end of the market and that would be your average, but it would be no reflection of the real market price.

The indexes are more sophisticated than that, but I expect a small number of sales would make them less accurate in any case. As I understand it, they calculate the price of various characteristics of houses sold (number of bedrooms, size of garden, etc) and project those prices onto an average house (3.6 bedrooms, 0.21 acres, etc). When there are fewer buyers and less panic to get on the ladder, the houses which sell might be those which score highly in characteristics which are not counted by the statisticians (stylish wallpaper, recently installed boiler, etc). If the index includes the value of these characteristics in the price of those which it measures then it will overestimate the average price by overstating the attractiveness of the average house.

New mortgage lending regulations

The VIs in the Times tried to make it a Nanny State issue because we're going to have to tell the banks how much we spend on alcohol*.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6880612.ece

I consider it a good thing if I don't have to outbid a booze-addled nomark who can't really afford a mortgage. It's no consolation to me that he'd lose the house in 3 or 4 years, leaving me to pick it up cheap at auction - I'll have paid loads in rent by then, and it will have burn marks in the carpets and smell of dog

Supply shortage leading to record prices

Someone on the HPC newsfeed pointed out that this is Righmove prices, so it's dreamworld seller prices rather than feet-on-the-ground buyer prices. Also, the supply squeeze is not quite as reported. They checked a few London postcodes and didn't find a shortage. Fulham is mentioned in the article so I checked the SW6 postcode: Rightmove has 574 for sale (not including under offer) and houseprices.co.uk has 580 sold since the start of last August. Their latest sales data is for August 2009, so it's about 1 year's worth of property on the books of those who use Rightmove.

* Nanny State and alcohol. Couldn't resist this OT article:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/8278312.stm

Fergus Wilson on the Renegade Economist channel. I don't think they got on. He should have brought a puppy.

From:

Hi nicejim , others may chip in with better answers here, but here's my understanding:

If you're comparing it to paper then yes, it's done far better. Productivity has increased but only against 3rd world armies, and the price of the increase may be quite significant. When I calculated the gold relative to soldiers' wages I thought the factoid added more weight to the charts of gold falling in value over time than to the claim that it holds value.

I doubt anyone here is hoping to hold gold for 500+ years though

Anyway, it's been holding value today - $1064ish a new record?

Edit: $1065.2 but it's doing the g/s ratio no favours!

Look away RealistBear of HPC, it's yet another example of gold holding it's value over time...........

In what respect has it held its value if it formerly employed a soldier for a month and now does so for a week or less?

Edit: the first sovs had about 2x the gold of current sovs, but the gold value has still come down in terms of soldiers' pay.

It's hard to keep the faith

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=1...&sort=whole

It's all very well you lot promising me "it will be any day now". You were trying to suggest that Nottingham's market holding up was a figment of my imagination. And now I find that right across the country the market is more buoyant than Sarah Beaney doing backstroke.

"In a generation, we might ask what an earth were we doing."

 

Good insight!

You think it will take that long?

The spin is in the headline, the news is in the article.

Number of mortgages up 29% in August

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6870711.ece

The number of loans taken out to buy houses dipped 5 per cent in August

Note that it "dipped". It didn't fall or drop, it "dipped".

but..but..all the smart money was short PM....i saw it in the COT report...

 

Looks like reality bites...and she bites hard!

Apologies for posting this link without reading it first (tired eyes and brain), but it's relevant to that comment:

Adam Hamilton: Commitment of traders reports don't fully tell the tale

http://gata.org/node/7891

It looks to me that that the financial crisis is leading to the destabilization of currencies and international trade. I guess you could say I am buying for macro-economic reasons rather than buying gold as a conventional "investment" as such. With the "re-booting" of the macro-economy, it is likely that assets priced in gold will be cheap.

Me too. We won't necessarily have gold in national currencies and we almost certainly won't have all the debt paid off before economies start to grow again, but whilst currencies and share prices fall in value to better represent the size of the economy they represent, gold is the place for the lazy investor to be (TA experts may take other routes). I'm not a bug, I consider myself a gold "opportunist".

I found two very interesting long term shadow stats cpi adjusted PM charts tonight at;

2 stand-out dates are 1775 and 1785. The first could be because of the American Revolution and I wonder if this is significant...

July 6 1785 – The dollar is unanimously chosen as the money unit for the United States (the first time a nation has adopted a decimal coinage system).

Why is the trend downwards? I thought deflation (in prices!) would be the norm in gold if anything.

Very true - Also, I think the opposite has been happening in Financial Services for years. You see in the reall world when we count sugar cubes, we count them honestly. In the fiat world, the sugar cube is crumbled a little, formed back into a smaller cube, then the crumbly bits are compacted into a cube, and then recounted as a bigger number. Same amount of sugar, but more cubes. That keeps the acountants scratching their heads as to why their figures in Excel don't add up. 1+1=2 doesn't it? Computers don't make mistakes..

 

This is another reason why the common man gets screwed over by the financial elite. The only way we can fight back is via gold. That is a lot harder to crumble up and doesn't grow in fields.

That reminded me of Max Keiser's definition of bank reserves. It goes something like this:

"Banks don't have any reserves these days, they now have mathematical formulae which demonstrate the existence of reserves under certain circumstances"

Absolutely Indoctrination reinforced into their professional training that creates an arrogance, that is needed to be seen to be believed,this is across all professional disciplines that the system so conveniently creates.I have very rarely been fortunate enough to meet FREE THINKING ,OPEN MINDED people from these areas.

"YOUR MIND IS LIKE A PARACHUTE IT IS ONLY OF ANY USE IF IT IS OPEN"

Anthony J. D΄Angelo

Seen this thread?

"How attached are you to the ideas you hold?"

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....c=7019&st=0

Perhaps the trading talk could be encouraged to go in the "Investors Edge" : Markets & Trading" sub-forum?

Without the fascination with medium term price movements this thread would have nothing but pictures of rockets and skydivers

..... and the Aussie.

There was plenty to be had there for someone who got it right and sat tight

Brazilian Real doing well too. Check the 1 year chart.

http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?USD

From Reuters:

As dollar fades, gold's currency shine brightens

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5963BX20091007

I had that situation some 4,000 posts & and a year or so ago.

And next year...

From front of Kitco page.

 

 

For the first time in ages I checked a Nadler article and clocked him mentioning Kitco starting up this new Kitco Gold Index. http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html#RT Gold / $ Index.

 

Now, I'm sure it's a useful and relevant chart tool to use, but the way this is being pushed seems to be along the lines of 'no, gold is still no good - don't buy it'. FFS - Kitco and Nadler!

To be fair, it's just reporting data (though their method of calculation may be up for debate). If gold went down in USD but up in buying pressure it would be saying "Gold still considered a good bet by the market". I notice USD went below 76 for a while.

I was reading an interesting piece of research today from one of the banks. It said many of the majors were substantially lagging the gold price and still had lots of room for appreciation given they still trade at a discount to their old March 2008 highs...

If you want exposure to a basket of them, try AUCO (ETFX GOLDMININ ETFX RUSSELL GLOBAL GOLD FUND) from ETFS Securities.

Would be too many threads.

 

Just call this one "Gold thread" and theres no problem

True. The whole site's been a bit weird lately. I don't know if it's because of the Mayan Calendar, a full moon, a bradley turn date, cosmic rays, alien mind control, sunshine, moonlight, good times or the boogie but it's too early to blame it on the format of the gold thread.

My post count overtook the gold price yesterday. Now gold has fought back.

The question is how long will it now last, if we are at that point. The graph suggests 12 months or so...will it be any different this time around? Does human nature change? Will the internet compress the time period of the speculative stage? If only we knew.

Good points. The theories about the Mayan calendar and events repeating in a shorter timespan make sense in this hectic world, but the internet didn't speed up the arrival of the phase so it might not lessen its duration.