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drbubb

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  1. WHY so Weak? Big test for MEG stock ( 3 yr : 5 yr ) may be coming at P4.50 soon At P4.79, MEG is 26.8% off the P6.54 peak. A 20% drop is normally considered a Bear market MEG's parent, Alliance Global (AGI - 10yr) is also under pressure - at P 11.30 COL is bullish on MEG: "For his part, COL Financial Group, Inc. Senior Research Manager Richard G. Lañeda said Megaworld will continue to aggressively expand its leasable retail and office space, citing the company’s plans to complete a total of 633,000 square meters (sq.m.) of leasing space starting this year until 2021. “We are raising our fair value estimate on MEG from P5.84 to P7.20 after raising our valuation estimate for MEG’s investment properties and landbank. We factored in recently completed office and retail buildings and also raised our EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) margin assumption for investment properties. Meanwhile, we raised our landbank value estimate to better reflect the increase in market prices of land in the past two years,” Mr. Lañeda cited COL’s report on Megaworld dated June 26. “Given that EBITDA margins have consistently held above our conservative long-term assumption, we are raising our EBITDA margin forecast to 88.3%,” he said. Megaworld commits to spend P300 million over the next five years — or until 2024 — to expand its residential, office, retails, and hotel projects. This year alone, it planned to spend P65 billion for its expansion. Broken down, around 65% or roughly 195 billion of the five-year capital expenditures will be earmarked for the development of residential projects and investment properties, while 35% will be used for land acquisitions. Last year, the company posted a net income attributable to the parent of P15.219 billion, an increase of 15.8% from P13.707 billion in 2017. In the first quarter of 2019, Megaworld managed to grow its attributable net profit by 16.3% to P3.836 billion. COL’s Mr. Lañeda expects Megaworld to net P17.736 billion this year. He pegged its support and resistance levels for this week’s trading at P5.90 and P6.17, respectively. Meanwhile, RCBC’s Mr. Lucero has a P16.8-billion core net income forecast for Megaworld this year on “broad-based growth.” “[T]he residential business growth will be buoyed by sustained high amount of residential launches. Their residential inventory remains less than one year worth of sales. On the other hand, MEG expects to add at least 200,000 square meters of office and mall leasing space this year, which, coupled with assumed better occupancy for the space added last year, will allow for strong growth in rental income,” he said. > MORE: jul.1, 2019: https://www.bworldonline.com/growth-prospects-boost-andrew-tan-led-property-companys-stock/ / 2 / Megaworld insists POGO exposure “small and manageable ... Aug 25, 2019 - Megaworld is adamant that a Chinese crackdown on the country's Philippine ... “small and manageable” as license moratorium sees share price tumble ... According to Bloomberg, Megaworld shares have fallen 22% so far in ...
  2. LOW RATES are having an impact BOOM: New Home Sales Fastest Pace Since 2007… Sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. soared much higher than expected in August and sales data for the previous two months were revised upwards as well. The Census Bureau said on Wednesday that new home sales rose 7.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713,000 units in August. July and June’s sales pace were also revised up. The three-month moving average, which many economists consider a more reliable indicator of the health of the housing market because it smooths out month-to-month volatility, climbed to 703,000, the fastest pace in nearly 12 years. Economists polled by Econoday had forecast an annual pace of 662,000 new home sales, a 3.5 percent climb. Compared with a year ago, sales were up 18 percent. New home sales appear to be benefitting from the strength of the labor market and lower interest rates. The Fed cut its interest rate target by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its July meeting and mortgage rates are down by more than a percentage point from last year’s high. Although new home sales account for only 11.5 percent of total housing market sales, they have bigger spill-over effects on the economy. Home building increases demand for labor and new homes need to outfitted with furniture and appliances.
  3. DENVER Gold show presentation http://www.denvergold.org/company-webcast/dgf19/157/ marmato financing: "finalizing things about the shell we are going to use" "want to use the cash to finance development of high grade segovia... may take out debt faster"
  4. Gran Colombia to spin off Marmato gold project - Cecilia Jamasmie | September 16, 2019 | 8:30 am Exploration Intelligence Latin America Gold image: https://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/marmato-colombia.jpg The Marmato project is located in the heart of the Middle Cauca gold district. (Image courtesy of Gran Colombia Gold) Canada’s Gran Colombia Gold (TSX:GCM) has decided to spin off its Marmato project, in the country’s department of Caldas, into a separate listed company to generate the funding required for ongoing exploration, development of an underground mine and the expansion of operations.The Toronto-based miner, which will retain a major stake in the newcompany, said expected work at the asset included the construction of anew processing plant and additional tailings storage facilities tosupport an increased level of production.THE CANADIAN MINER WILL RETAIN A MAJOR STAKE IN THE NEW COMPANY WHILELEVERAGING THE CAPITAL MARKETS TO PROVIDE FURTHER FUNDING.Gran Colombia is nearing completion of an underground mine expansionstudy at Marmato, first announced in 2017 and expects to file apreliminary economic assessment before the end of the year.“Immediately thereafter, we will proceed with the prefeasibility study,”executive chairman Serafino Iacono said in the statement.“We are excited to be in a position to see a path forward to developthis world class deposit and to begin to get a return on investment forour shareholders.”As part of the proposed mine plan, the company will look to optimize mining activities in the upper existing mine, which produces 24,000-to-26,000 ounces a year of gold. It will also aim at increasing production and reducing cash costs.Gran Colombia plans to concurrently begin development ofthe Deeps mineralization underneath the current mine for a modern,mechanized mining operation.The company acquired Marmato, in the heart of the Middle Cauca golddistrict, in 2011, through a merger with Medoro Resources.The underground gold mine is expected to have a minimum 12-yearproductive life, generating over 1.5 million ounces of the preciousmetal during that time.Rocky roadIn the last decade, the project has been plagued by controversy.Residents of the 500 year-old Marmato town, mostly opposed the miner’sintention of flattening a mountain to create an open pit.That is no longer an issue, as Gran Colombia has opted for undergroundmining at Marmato.The property has also been unlawfully occupied.The first group of illegal miners took over the area in 2016, blockingroads and costing Gran Colombia $2 million in daily losses.In 2017, the miner filed a $700 million lawsuit against Colombia,under the Colombian-Canadian free trade agreement, afterthe government ordered the company to cease operations atthe El Burro site in Marmato, requesting further consultation withlocals.The asset is located in a region that has been exploited since pre- Colonial times by the Quimbaya people. The Spanish colonists assumed control of the zone’s mines in 1527 and the area has been in almost continuous production ever since.Marmato’s known riches were key to support the cause of Simon Bolivar, a revolutionary leader who liberated much of South America from Spanish rule. According to historians, Bolivar used the mines as collateral with British banks to secure funding for a war of independence against Spain.https://www.mining.com/gran-colombia-to-spin-off-marmato-gold-project/ Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=30131860#dLf8gxg3eJihuJgW.99
  5. teck to fcx - weak coal? Successful Inv says buy Teck Resources 2019-09-13 20:49 ET - In the News The Successful Investor, in the September, 2019, issue, says buy Teck Resources Ltd., recently $23. The Investor previously said buy 31 times from September, 1996, to February, 2019, at prices ranging from $10 to $90 (the stock split 2 for 1 in May, 2007). Assuming a $1,000 investment for each of the 31 buys, the $31,000 position is now worth $43,493. Teck produces coal, copper, zinc and oil. Those products made up 51 per cent, 21 per cent, 19 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, of the $3.14-billion in revenue that Teck took in during the quarter ended June 30, 2019. That figure was up from $3.02-billion in the same period a year earlier. Despite the revenue increase, Teck's earnings of $459-million of 81 cents a share were down sharply from the year-earlier level of $653-million or $1.12 a share. The drop largely reflects lower prices for coal, copper and zinc. The Investor is unfazed, noting in particular that the long-term outlook for copper is positive and Teck is an "enviable position" to take advantage of that. Teck now trades at just 6.3 times its likely 2019 earnings of $3.63 a share, and its dividend yield is 0.9 per cent. Buy.
  6. FASCINATING (& Profitable?) idea 2019-09-16 08:15 C:GCM 4.65 News Release Gran Colombia to spin off Marmato assets GCM.t ... 2 years/ Last: C$5.37 +0.30, +5.92% (Yr. H: $5.91) wtB: $C$3.50 +0.38, +11.5% (Yr. H: $3.90) GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD ANNOUNCES INTENTION TO SPIN OFF MARMATO TO CARRY OUT PROPOSED EXPANSION OF UNDERGROUND MINING OPERATIONS Gran Colombia Gold Corp. intends to spin off its Marmato mining assets into a separate listed special purpose vehicle. Through the spinoff, Gran Colombia will retain a major stake in the new company while leveraging the capital markets to provide the financing required for continuing exploration and the development of the underground mining assets at Marmato, including the expansion of operations to incorporate the Deeps mineralization and the construction of a new processing plant and additional tailings storage facilities to support the increased level of production. Serafino Iacono, executive chairman of Gran Colombia, stated: "We are nearing completion of the underground mine expansion study at Marmato. We expect to file a preliminary economic assessment before the end of the year and immediately thereafter proceed with the prefeasibility study. We are excited to be in a position to see a path forward to develop this world-class deposit and to begin to get a return on investment for our shareholders. The proposed mine plan envisions the optimization of mining activities in the upper existing mine, similar to what we did in the early stages of the turnaround at Segovia, that will increase production and reduce cash costs starting in 2020. Concurrently, we will begin development of the Deeps mineralization in a modern, mechanized mining operation. In evaluating our options to fund the development of the Deeps mineralization and construct the facilities required to support the expanded mining operations, we have carefully considered the potential impact of any proposed financing on our current capital structure and balance sheet. We have heard from many of our shareholders that they would not be in favour of a highly dilutive equity issue. In addition, after working so hard the last few years to strengthen our financial liquidity, we are reluctant to add a significant amount of debt back onto our balance sheet. We want to focus the use of our free cash flow and cash balances to further the exploration and development of our high-grade Segovia operations which have been the key catalyst to our successful turnaround and this year's share price appreciation. For these reasons, we feel a spinoff of the Marmato mining assets into a separate listed special purpose vehicle allows us to retain a major stake in the Marmato project without having an adverse impact on either our capital structure or our balance sheet. We are in the preliminary stages of identifying the listed vehicle for this initiative and we will provide further updates and information as it becomes available." Located in the Caldas department in the heart of the Middle Cauca gold district, the Marmato project contains 40.7 million tonnes at a grade of 2.9 grams per tonne totalling 3.8 million ounces of gold in measured and indicated resources and 52.0 million tonnes at a grade of 2.5 g/t totalling 4.2 million ounces of gold in inferred resources. The existing Marmato underground mine, located in the Zona Baja area of the Marmato Mountain, is on track to produce between 24,000 and 26,000 ounces of gold in 2019. The Marmato project has excellent infrastructure, being located by the Pan American Highway with access to Medellin to the north and Manizales to the south, and has access to the national electricity grid which runs near the property.
  7. CU, FCX & TMV (Bear on Bonds) ... fr. 9/2015 / Last: Cu:$2.59, FCX:$10.47, TMV:$10.73 FCX & TMV ... fr. 1/2012 : 10d : Ratio: FCX:$10.47, TMV:$10.73 : 97.6%
  8. CYCLE in FCX & Copper... all-data : 5yr : fr.11/2015 / 7-9 months, recently bottomed at end of Aug. 2019 FCX is more volatile... so the cycle highs and lows may be easier to spot Ratio: FCX-to-Copper Is the Big Market Cycle About to Turn? (w/ Ron William) RW says some sensible things, but is looking at a longer cycle - like 10 years The Long term Copper chart ( w/FCX ) does not suggest a 10-year Cycle is rolling over CU-etc... since 2011 :
  9. Finally - this BRIDGE is coming OLD photo The site of the future Bridge, connecting Ste.Monica to Lawton Ave. in BGC. If you leave Centera, and walk for 25 minutes walk and (I counted) 2300 steps, you will arrive here, where there is some construction equipment. This is the intersection of Santa Monica and Manila Railroad St. (Google maps pictured a basketball court here.) === RECENT The bridge connecting Kapitolyo to BGC is taking shape Some people in Ortigas think their journey time will be cut in half
  10. The FCX rally may be fizzling out FCX .... update : Last:
  11. ACQUA : from the almost-Sublime ... to the Ridiculous (original 2011 video was sublime marketing - the latest video story may be ridiculous) ACQUA Private Residences AVP of Century Properties (2017) Three yuppies, One day at Acqua Private Residences - "Cringe-worthy?" As Franco moves in next door, will he finally fall for Pam? Will Pam finally tell Franco how she really feels about him? Who is Enzo and why is he always late? Three yuppies. One day. One amazing condo at the heart of the city.
  12. NEWS BTU ... 10d / Last: $15.50 -1.53, -8.98% O: 16.73. H: 16.91, L: 15.32 Peabody Energy Down 8% DJ REALTIME NEWS 09/20/19 Update: Peabody Holds on to Arch Coal Deal, Cites Strong Balance Sheet Amid Soured Debt Plan - Stock Slides 9% MT NEWSWIRES 09/20/19 BRIEF-Statement From Peabody Confirming Commitment To Pending Prb/Colorado Joint Venture REUTERS 09/20/19 Peabody Energy's stock tumbles toward record low after terminating cash buybacks of debt Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) shares recently traded down 8% to $15.65 after the coal company terminated a tender offer for notes. Peabody said late Thursday that "at this particular time, the debt markets do not accommodate a path toward completing the offers and achieving the company's refinancing objectives in an economic fashion." On Friday, Peabody confirmed its commitment to the pending PRB/Colorado joint venture with Arch Coal Inc. (ARCH). Peabody said it "looks forward to continuing to take the steps needed to advance the highly accretive transaction in a timely and effective manner to add value to the enterprise." . . . Peabody Energy (BTU) said on Friday it would continue its coal mines deal with Arch Coal (ARCH) to combine their Powder River Basin and Colorado assets through the regulatory process, saying that its balance sheet is strong even after scrapping its plan to buy back $1 billion debt notes on lukewarm support. Its shares slumped 10%. "The company looks forward to continuing to take the steps needed to advance the highly accretive transaction in a timely and effective manner to add value to the enterprise," the coal miner said in a statement. In June, the two companies said they have struck a joint venture deal, with Peabody owning 66.5% of the venture and Arch the balance, combining among others two productive and adjacent US coal mines into a single unit, hoping to unlock some $820 million synergies. On Thursday, Peabody said it was terminating its cash tender offers to buy $500 million of 6% senior secured notes due 2022 and $500 million of 6.375% senior secured notes due 2025, as part of its refinancing plan. "The debt markets do not accommodate a path toward completing the offers and achieving the company's refinancing objectives in an economic fashion," said CFO Amy Schwetz. "The company intends to pursue alternative means to accomplish its longer-term objectives in a manner that adds value to the enterprise." Still, the coal miner said its revolving credit facility was upsized with $215 million in additional commitments. The maturity date for $540 million of the facility was also extended to 2023. "The credit facility was amended to permit the company's pending PRB/Colorado joint venture," Peabody said. In April 2016, it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing economic slowdown in China and low coal prices. . . . Earlier this week, the company said it completed an upsizing of its revolving credit facility, to help enable the pending Arch Coal Inc. (ARCH) joint venture. On Friday, Peabody "confirmed its commitment" to the Arch Coal JV, saying it continues to progress through the regulatory approval process. Arch Coal's (ARCH) stock dropped 5.2% toward the lowest close since Oct. 30, 2017 . Year to date, Peabody shares have slumped 48.7% and Arch Coal's (ARCH) stock has lost 13.2%, while the S&P 500 has gained 19.3%.
  13. SOXX Tired?, peaked first? (I thought at the time: 9/16/2019) SOXX- etc ... 10d / Last / 2 / And then... BAGHDAD AIRSTRIKE ! (early Friday) UPDATE _ at the Turn of the Year, going into 2020, IWM peaked first : 10d-update Thu. Jan. 2nd close: SOXX: 256.29 +5.19, +2.07% O: 254.26, H: 256.29, L: 253.00 (12mo: 150.95 - 256.29) SPY. : 324.87 +3.01, +0.94% O: 323.54, H: 324.89, L: 322.53 (12mo: 243.67 - 324.89) IWM. : 165.78 +0.11, +0.07% O: 166.74, H: 166.75, L: 164.23 (12mo: 133.72 - 167.12) XLF. : $31.08 +0.30, +0.97% O: $30.89, H: $31.08, L: $30.80 (12mo: $23.82 - $31.08) ==
  14. Victoria Gold Corp. John McConnell, President & CEO TSX-V: VIT Download the PDF Launch the Presentation
  15. Wallbridge Mining Company Brian Penny, CFO TSX: WM Download the PDF Launch the Presentation
  16. McEwen Mining Inc. Rob McEwen, Chief Owner & Chairman NYSE/TSX: MUX Download the PDF Launch the Presentation
  17. Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek, Sept. 11-13, 2019 Almaden Minerals Ltd. / NYSE-A: AAU Doug McDonald, VP, Corporate Development Download the PDF / Launch the Presentation Barkerville Gold Mines Ltd. / TSX-V: BGM Chris Lodder, President and CEO VIEW THE VRIFY DECK PRESENTATION / Launch the Presentation Eastmain Resources Inc. / TSX: ER Claude Lemasson, President & CEO Download the PDF / Launch the Presentation Filo Mining Corp. / TSX-V: FIL Adam Lundin, President & CEO Download the PDF / Launch the Presentation First Mining Gold Corp. / TSX: FF Dan Wilton, CEO VIEW THE VRIFY DECK PRESENTATION / Launch the Presentation Nighthawk Gold Corp. / TSX: NHK Michael Byron, President & CEO VIEW THE VRIFY DECK PRESENTATION / Launch the Presentation Sirios Resources Inc. / TSX-V: SOI Dominique Doucet, President Download the PDF / Launch the Presentation SolGold plc / LSE: SOLG Nick Mather, CEO Download the PDF / Launch the Presentation
  18. Uranium sector won’t catch a break One week ago Cameco announced it will maintain low output levels until uranium prices recover. The Canadian uranium miner also said it might cut production further, having already closed four mines in Canada and laid off 2,000 of its workers in the uranium mining hub of Saskatchewan. . . . Just over a year ago Cameco made the difficult decision to close its MacArthur River and Key Lake mines, in response to low uranium prices, leaving the company’s flagship Cigar Lake facility as its only operating mine left in northern Saskatchewan, home to the world’s highest grade uranium deposit. The mine closures by Cameco were preceded by 20% production cuts in Kazakhstan, the number one uranium-producing country. The former Soviet bloc country has said 2020-21 output will not rise above 2019 levels. In Canada, the second largest U producer, 2018 production was cut in half to 7,000 tonnes. An estimated 35% of uranium supply has been stripped from the market since Kazakhstan’s supply reductions in December 2017. Uranium demand and China In response to the supply glut/ low price argument, uranium bulls like to present China as the country that will save the day and float everyone’s long-sunken uranium stock boats. It’s true that, of 453 operating nuclear reactors and 55 new reactors under construction, globally, China has the most reactors in the pipeline including 43 operating, 15 under construction and 179 planned or proposed. China then, will demand millions of tonnes of yellowcake, that it will have to import, right, pushing up the price? In fact, China has been working to reduce its dependence on imported uranium, and fossil-fueled power generation, by developing domestic uranium deposits and either partnering with or buying mine properties overseas. The Asian superpower has started building its own uranium supply chain, such as starting the Husab mine in Namibia. In November 2018, China National Uranium Corp bought the Rossing mine in Namibia from Rio Tinto. According to the World Nuclear Association, China has become self-sufficient in most aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle: China aims to produce one-third of its uranium domestically, obtain one-third through foreign equity in mines and joint ventures overseas, and to purchase one-third on the open market. The China Nuclear International Uranium Corporation (SinoU) set up the Azelik mine in Niger and has agreed to buy a 25% stake in Paladin’s Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia for $190 million. In 2007 SinoU bought a share in the Zhalpak mine in Kazakhstan, through a joint venture with Kazatomprom. Prospects in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Namibia, Algeria and Zimbabwe, Canada and South Africa are also seen as potential suppliers for SinoU, writes WNA. Read more at https://stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2019/09/13/uranium-sector-won-t-catch-break#IrVa9RbiW1QBhOQ5.99
  19. Uranium sector won’t catch a break One week ago Cameco announced it will maintain low output levels until uranium prices recover. The Canadian uranium miner also said it might cut production further, having already closed four mines in Canada and laid off 2,000 of its workers in the uranium mining hub of Saskatchewan. . . . Just over a year ago Cameco made the difficult decision to close its MacArthur River and Key Lake mines, in response to low uranium prices, leaving the company’s flagship Cigar Lake facility as its only operating mine left in northern Saskatchewan, home to the world’s highest grade uranium deposit. The mine closures by Cameco were preceded by 20% production cuts in Kazakhstan, the number one uranium-producing country. The former Soviet bloc country has said 2020-21 output will not rise above 2019 levels. In Canada, the second largest U producer, 2018 production was cut in half to 7,000 tonnes. An estimated 35% of uranium supply has been stripped from the market since Kazakhstan’s supply reductions in December 2017. Uranium demand and China In response to the supply glut/ low price argument, uranium bulls like to present China as the country that will save the day and float everyone’s long-sunken uranium stock boats. It’s true that, of 453 operating nuclear reactors and 55 new reactors under construction, globally, China has the most reactors in the pipeline including 43 operating, 15 under construction and 179 planned or proposed. China then, will demand millions of tonnes of yellowcake, that it will have to import, right, pushing up the price? In fact, China has been working to reduce its dependence on imported uranium, and fossil-fueled power generation, by developing domestic uranium deposits and either partnering with or buying mine properties overseas. The Asian superpower has started building its own uranium supply chain, such as starting the Husab mine in Namibia. In November 2018, China National Uranium Corp bought the Rossing mine in Namibia from Rio Tinto. According to the World Nuclear Association, China has become self-sufficient in most aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle: China aims to produce one-third of its uranium domestically, obtain one-third through foreign equity in mines and joint ventures overseas, and to purchase one-third on the open market. The China Nuclear International Uranium Corporation (SinoU) set up the Azelik mine in Niger and has agreed to buy a 25% stake in Paladin’s Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia for $190 million. In 2007 SinoU bought a share in the Zhalpak mine in Kazakhstan, through a joint venture with Kazatomprom. Prospects in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Namibia, Algeria and Zimbabwe, Canada and South Africa are also seen as potential suppliers for SinoU, writes WNA. Read more at https://stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2019/09/13/uranium-sector-won-t-catch-break#IrVa9RbiW1QBhOQ5.99
  20. A Old warrior for UK-in-Europe makes his Case Lord Michael Heseltine | Full Address and Q&A | Oxford Union / 2 / "I thought it was absolutely grotesque" Brexit: This rotten parliament -- the spiked podcast
  21. FIVE Mining related CO's - LOOKING at some charts Symbol: Price: MkCap: Ent.Val: Ebitda: EV/Eb: Debt- : BkVal: %BV : Earns : PER : Cash: NetDebt AAU - : $.712 : $ 80.M: $ 80.M: - N/A - : - N/A-: N/A - : $0.49 : AMM.t:c$0.95 : $106M: $107M: (3.71M) -28.9: 2.73M: $0.63 : 151% : (.027) N/A : BGM.v:c$.405 : $228M: $207M: (89.1M) -2.32: 1.45M: $0.03 : 14.5x : (.137) N/A : OOO.v: c$0.10 : $16.2M: $15.M: (0.68M) -0.00: -N/A- : $0.17 : 57.% : (.008) N/A : SOI.v : c$0.20 : $32.7M: - N/A-: (0.85M) -33.6: -N/A- : $0.18 : 113%: (.013) N/A : TNX.t : c$1.01 : $151M: $157M: (4.50M) -38.8: 7.46M: $0.27 : 380%: (.051) N/A : AAU / Almaden Minerals ... all-data : 2yr / Last: $0.712 vs H-Yr ($0.90) : - 20.9% BGM / Barkerville Gold Mines ... all : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr / Last: $0.405 vs H-Yr ($0.48) : - 15.6% : 2yr / BGM NOT economic? $300m Capex to make $400m? Interesting question as to why they only used half the resources - only answer is because the other half won't make any money. No reason to not include resources that can be converted to reserves - that would be witholdoing material information. This is exactly why BGM stock is languishing - no one believes all resource ounces are economic. Also, keep in mind that a PEA can include inferred ounces in its reserve calculations - whereas a PFS or FS cannot (indicated only). There is always risk with inferred resources. Would be interesting to know what proportions of the reserves in this PEA come from inferred resources. Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=v.bgm&postid=30105441#t3Xor5397ITRiFgg.99 OOO / Otis Gold Corp. ... all-data : update / Last: $0.10 vs H-Yr ($0.19) : - 47.4% NEWS 2019-08-27 09:48 C:OOO 0.09 News Release Otis Gold files amended PEA for Kilgore 2019-08-23 09:23 C:OOO 0.095 News Release Otis Gold arranges $1-million private placement SOI / Sirios Resources ... all-data : update / Last: $0.20 vs H-Yr ($0.28) : - 28.6% May 8, 2019 Sirios Resources announces the first closing of a private placement of units $1M at $0.20 with $0.30 wts of 18 months maturity. Free trading by mid-sept (??) June 18, 2019 Sirios Resources completes the last closing of its private placement of units June 3, 2019 SIRIOS Resources intersects 31.3 g/t Au over 1.0 m in the Eclipse Zone at Cheechoo May 27, 2019 Sirios Resources Intersects its targets with 187.0 g/t Au over 0.8 m and 106.0 g/t Au over 1.3 m at Cheechoo TNX / Tanzanian Gold ... all-data : update / Last: $1.01 vs H-Yr ($1.56) : - 35.3%
  22. PRODUCTION - Monthly reports? "They need to stop giving production reports month by month . The first time they miss , even by a small amount , the share price will tank . - WayneD52 / at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=30126859#CAR4ZhRuSKULxOKu.99 "i agree, no other mine I look at is doing this, but as almost all insiders convert all their options into action and sold at the last top, I believe they are happy with the direction of the share that will allow them to create stock option at low price." >More at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=30126950#6ITXsrfDpT0v0Axm.99 = : PRODUCTION / v 2019 Mo.: Prod'17: Prod'18 : Prod'19: Q1- : 39,008 : 52,672 : 60,601 > +15.1% Q2- : 46,075 : 52,906 : 57,882 > +14.8% Q3- : 37.1 K : 57,163 : 55k.Est > - 4 % Q4- : 52.0K : 55,260 : 57k.Est > +4 % Yr. = 174.2k : 218.0k : 230k.Est === :: 2017 :: 2018 :: 2019 :: Jan. 00,000: 16,700 : 17,941 : Feb. 00,000: 17,339 : 21,335 : New monthly record! Mar. 00,000: 18,633 : 21,325 : =Q1: 39,008: 52,672 : 60,601 : +15%; Quarterly record! Apr. 00,000: 16,118 : 20,372 : May 00,000: 18,675 : 18,528 :: Jun. 00,000: 18,400 : 18,882 :: =Q2: 46.08k: 52.91k : 57,882 : + 9% July 00,000: 19,296 : 18,166 :: Aug. 00,000: 18,747 : 18,710 :: 8m. 000.0k: 143.0k : 155,359 : + 8% 12m: 000.0k: 000.0k: 229.7k : Sep. 00,000: 19,120 : =Q3: 37.10K: 57,163 : Oct.: 17.33K: 18,065 : Nov: 17.33K: 18,193 : Dec. 17.33K: 19,002 : (aver.18.4k oz in Q4) =Q4: 52.00K: 55,260 : ===================== ; 2018: "218,001 OUNCES, UP 25% OVER 2017" 2019 TARGET: 225,000-240,000
  23. BULLBOARD COMMENTS, #2 + W A / Western Atlas Resources... 2-yr / Last: $0.09 Really thought we would be at $6 or better not closer to 5. Does the deal with Western Atlas stink this much or is it something else? If this deal goes thru it seems like quite the overpayment for us buyind shares at .45. I hope this play doesnt grow to fruition as I dont see the net benefit to us shareholders. + The drop is totally because of drop in POG. Just that simple. No one cares about Venezuela or WA at this point. They are making money hand over fist and only a few of us seem to care about that. Sad, but true. (TSoprano24) + There was a lot of insider selling recently. I know the stock was a poor performer for a long time prior to the last three years so I understand why some want to lock in profits. You hope they are selling because they don’t know what the price of gold is going to do or they don’t know how to do a valuation and not because of something fundamental. Either way, there are more shares out there for the market to absorb. At the end of the day though, they should be stacking cash right now and they are going to need it to fund Marmato so I’m not too fussed about the share price as long as they don’t issue equity. (Method) + there is and there was no big insider selling .. only conversion of options and selling the received shares at the market ... no big deal ... (kkkrrr) Red Cloud increases PT to C$10 Red Cloud increased their gold price forecast to $1500 and took their 2020 EBITDA estimate to C$184m. This took their target to C$10 from C$6 at 4x EV/EBITDA. (Method) (Method can spot a bargain - Wayned##) + Thanks for the shoutout Wayne. I should be clear that I only own some DN.DB and less at 90 than I did at 75. The only MJ equity I own is ROMJ and it’s pretty small although looks really cheap based on guidance. My most interesting position right now is TII.V. 0.6x book, 7x EPS, 3.8% dividend yield (first dividend goes ex on Sep 27). RE:I don't understand why this company didn't correct to $6 Lack of RESERVES means everything. (( or does it?? )) + With 25 high grade veins in segovia ( 5 millions oz gold already mined with artisanal methods ), and about 10 millions oz in marmato , plus zancudo , do you really think lack of reserves ? The set back is purely technical with good support on the last 2 highs around 4.65 cad . Don't forget to buy a few...-)) / Brioche >> With 25 high grade veins in segovia... some folks "get it," seems most folks don't. when you do... nevermind marmato, zancudo, venezuela, sandspring, or anything else (as they're all relatively small or insignificant.) make no mistake about it, the really tasty cheddar here is (and will continue to be) ...segovia. why hasn't it been drilled more previously? simple. the company was in a terrible cash crunch under previous (mis)management, and didn't have its chit together. Times - and some number of things - have changed... (such as, certain of the management, etc,...) // Menoalittle + GCM reserves were the same at $5.90 share price as it was at $3.00 share price. same around 7 year mine life for segovia which does not count inferred and 2 million oz with inferred, 8+ million oz marmato for multi decades, 10 million oz sandspring, zancuto, venez. reserves were not a factor for the share price rising or falling. additional 80km drilling on top of annual drilling will jump reserves, so reserves will not be a problem for many years to come. they just reported segovia drilling which successfully added reserves. with almost 20 million oz gcm has more reserves/resources than most other gold miners. in fact reserves actually jumped up if they recalculated reserves for $1500 gold instead of $1200 gold since more lower grade ozs become profitable at higher $1500 gold price. nothing has changed except weak hands that panicked on a tiny drop in gold price. gold price still $200 higher than previous quarter, plus not needing to pay tax in second half means there will be huge free cash coming soon. / Invest234 Gran Colombia Gold Provides August 2019 Production Update / Gold price that is more good news, throughput successfully jumped up to 1,371 tpd with the increase in plant capacity using the lower grade stockpile. feeding in newly developed areas with higher grade increases production for the second half. filter press now in operation reduces cost. funny how psychology works, one dollar above $1500 gold and it is blue skies, one dollar below $1500 and it is run out of gold and going out of business. we already saw the gold price move above and below the psychological $1300 many times with no resistance. the same happened at $1200 gold. these psychological numbers are meaningless. gcm still makes a huge amount of cash at $1501 or $1490. // Invest234
  24. BULLBOARD COMMENTS ========== + I'm looking forward to the next earnings report. If the average realized POG is about $150 higher than last quarter & production, etc. is similar, there should be a pop of $9 million or so to the bottom line. (ChupacabraBueno, 9/4) + the Company has increased its holdings in Sandspring to an aggregate of 53,300,000 common shares, 31,800,000 share purchase warrants and 5,200,000 subscription receipts. The common shares controlled by the Company represent approximately 19.45% of the outstanding common shares of Sandspring + GCM is grabbing cheap shares of SSP ..they invested a few million $$$ and are at 19,45% ownership of a multi million oz-deposit and can reach 30% with a few more $$$$ ... the same with Western Atlas ... the Venezualian Assets are woth ZERO now ... GCM alredy invested 1 million $ in this company via PP and will get additional 59 million shares at the cose of the asset-deal .. Western Atlas already is at 10cent per share..with 70 million shares ownership of WA.V this makes 7 million$ asset creation at the balance sheet ..and this company will be worth much more if politics in Venezuela gets the corner... remember! the Venezuelian assets (Medoro) curently are valued with ZERO at GCM's balance sheet ... a rise of WA.V to 30 cent will create appr. 20 million$ in assets for GCM shareholders without a single drilling hole or developement! ... thats why this deal is a good one! GCM bought into SSP.T at near 20 cent per share ..now its at 40 cent ... next quarter the balance sheet will show a nice profit from this investment ..additional to the superb operational results... GCM is woth minimum 500 million USD at current stage! sum of all parts... (kkkrrr) + dont forget the zancudo deal with iag VALUATION CALCULATIONS: EBITDA: $192M ?? + The market here seems to have lost its fricken mind. Market Cap of gcm? around 192 million, USD. reasonably conservative EBITDA run rate for one year, with gold over 1500, is...? > probably around 192 million, USD. oh, you wanna talk enterprise value (included cash & debt) instead? okay, probably well under 250 million. Either way, rather insane. (Menoalittle) + I've been in GCM for a couple of years, built a nice position (my second largest), and doubling my money. GCM was so cheap, and, still is, as its numbers improve every quarter. The fact that the valuation is so low, based on input from some financial/technical people in the industry I know is there is a lack of trust about Serafino and mgmt from incidents a few years ago (and I still don't know what happened). Yes, there is Colombian risk but other mining companies in the country aren't as severely penalized. I, too, have concerns as I never fully appreciated the logic in raising $25m in convertible debt (and the fact that they had an earlier, far worse proposal was appalling. Was it really needed, given the company's improving llquidity and how is it being spent?. I still don't understand the logic of the terms of the spin-off of Venezuelan assets to Western Atlas. Who is it benefiting the most and isn't Serafino a large shareholder? Look at the terms in the press release: https://stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2019/09/03/western-atlas-announces-financing-gran-colombia-gold-participation It's a so-called purchase at US$20m, but financed via an issuance of shares at C$ 0.45 cents whereas the company is making a private placement at C$ 0.08.5 -10 cents/share, with a 1/2 warrant at 20 cents. The purchase price - based on current market price of WA shares - is actually US$4.4m. Plus, altho not noted in this press release but I read in another, the purchase by WA is only achieved after transfer of the properties can be evidenced. In other words, this is likely years away. At the same time, willl take C$1.4m of the private placement. It's things like this that concern me with the company. But, realistically, I've benefited by buying in a low price, with the potential for much more growths, achievable by just reaching average market comparisons. If these guys can change their perception in the market, share value could signicantly increase, further accelerated by rising gold prices. The question is whether Serafino and crew feel thery're being rewarded suffciently by their holdings in GCM as opposed to making strange, self-benefiting transactions. I liked your calculation that $1,500 gold equals $192m EBITDA amd current market cap of $192m. That's why I haven't been selling down and, thus far, been well rewarded. (Lumpy13) + I also liked that calculation of $192M EBITDA. Presumably thats using a $700 AISC to give $800/oz x 240,000oz annual production. I think that's where they're at today. Maybe even a little better. (ChupacabraBueno, 9/6) + Cash costs are projected at $680, which may rise a little with the rise in gold prices (and weaker dollar.) AISC will (or at least, should) rise as or when more exploration drilling starts to kick in, but I suspect they might still remain below $1,000/oz. In short, at 1500/oz., this company is a cash flow beast. And gold seems to be stabalizing/consolidating nicely above that... and if the Fed cuts later this month (bond market is leaning that direction), gold price is likely to hike up a fair bit higher. (menoalittle)
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