drbubb

Update : 16.36 +0.14. PER: 4.11,  Yield: 4.71%

( If thru $10 soon, next stop might be $15... )

/ per above /

LONG TERM= UPTREND now to $10... maybe $15

MUX : 10yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $7.88( Range: 2.81 to 8.80 )

HIT MY $10 TARGET today.  Sold some above $9.90

MUX / McEwen Mng : 2021: 2022: Ytd: 10d / updated: 5.19

OLD, nailed $10 target

MUX hit $10, despite this supposed "bad" news RECENT

McEwen Copper Down 1.6% In US Pre-Mkt As Reports Assay Results From Los Azules Project

06:49 AM EDT, 04/05/2023 (MT Newswires) -- McEwen Copper Inc., which is 52% owned by McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX.NaE) , on Wednesday reported assay results from the Los Azules project in Argentina.

The company at last look fell 1.6% in US pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Highlights of the results include 0.50% copper over 502 meters, 1% Cu over 282 meters and 0.66% Cu over 500 meters.

GLCC as bellwether . Last: $28.26. (12 mo: 19.74 to 30.14 )

UPDATE

CPI inflation was reported at 5%. Lower, but not a big surprise, w/ Core Rising

TIME  : NEWS....

03:09 U.S. oil prices log highest finish this year on signs of slowing inflation and potential SPR refill MarketWatch

02:58 Treasury I-Bond Rate Could Fall in May Due to Lower Inflation Barron's Online

02:57 U.S. budget deficit hits $1.1 trillion in first half of fiscal year, Treasury says MarketWatch

02:54 U.S. stock market ‘pretty expensive’ as investors parse inflation report in choppy trade MarketWatch

I bonds need to be held for 12 months, and holders lose a quarter’s interest if they redeem the bonds within five years. They mature in 30 years but can be redeemed before then. Semiannual interest is added to the principal value of the bond and compounds over the life of the bond. This differs from Treasury notes and bonds, which make cash interest payments. It’s a favorable feature because it eliminates interest reinvestment risk.

CPI Release: Mar. 2023 Release:  TOMO: Apr. 12th, 2023, 8:30 am

What is the CPI prediction for March 2023?

Inflation Prediction as of March 2023 ---- Headline Inflation Headed to 3.3% Come Midsummer. INFLATION Forecast: The annual CPI total reported each month is a combined string of 12 months of data, think of it as being 12 dominoes, a new one comes on, and the oldest one drops off.

 

( compare with TNote, TBonds Yields: 2yr: 4.0%, 10yr: 3.42%. 30yr: 3.63% )

 

TYX / 30 yr: rate vs. CRB, US$ etf: 4.28.23 :36.78 = 3.678% -0.078% / CRB: 21.88= 1.68x

Prev. 4.10.23: 36.26 = 3.63% / CRB: 22.32= 1.62x

 

Positive action may come in Phl.REIT stocks, if the CPI # is low,

And the fear of falling com'l yields (in REITS) is not too high

 

AREIT vs. TLT: 32.05 / 106.78 = 30.0%

INFLATION DATA Coming Soon...

CPI Release: Mar. 2023 Release:  Apr. 12th, 2023, 8:30 am

What is the CPI prediction for March 2023?

Inflation Prediction as of March 2023 ---- Headline Inflation Headed to 3.3% Come Midsummer. INFLATION Forecast: The annual CPI total reported each month is a combined string of 12 months of data, think of it as being 12 dominoes, a new one comes on, and the oldest one drops off.

 

( compare with TNote, TBonds Yields: 2yr: 4.0%, 10yr: 3.42%. 30yr: 3.63% )

 

TYX / 30 yr: rate vs. CRB, US$ etf: Last: 3.63%

GOOD GRADES!  But the market is not fully agreeing

McEwen Copper: Los Azules ¢ € “ New Assay Results

2023-04-05  News Release

Significant Infill Intercepts
0.50% Cu over 502 m, including 0.87% Cu over 172 m (AZ22181)
1.00% Cu over 282 m, including 1.40% Cu over 172 m (AZ22186)
0.66% Cu over 500 m, including 0.92% Cu over 276 m (AZ22184A)

TORONTO, April 05, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- McEwen Copper Inc., 52%-owned by McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE: MUX) (TSX: MUX), is pleased to report the latest assay results from Los Azules, where an ongoing drilling program continues to deliver consistent infill results. Located in San Juan, Argentina, the Los Azules Project has many features comparable to world-class copper-gold deposits in South America, including a thick blanket of higher-grade Enriched (or Supergene) mineralization.

Highlights

• Hole AZ22183 returned an Enriched zone intercept of 0.87% Cu over 152 m (est. true thickness) which expands mineralization from adjacent high-grade results drilled in prior programs (Figure 1 and 2).
• In hole AZ22184A, an Enriched zone interval grading 0.92% Cu over 276 m (est. true thickness) occurs in a hydrothermal magmatic breccia within the core of the deposit (Figure 3). This breccia unit acts as a conduit for mineralizing fluids, sometimes forming higher grades within the broader porphyry mineralization at Los Azules.
• Hole AZ22181 returned an Enriched zone intercept of 0.87% Cu over 172 m (est. true thickness) and fills a gap between high-grade holes drilled earlier in 2022 (Figure 4).
• Hole AZ22186 includes an interval grading 1.00% Cu over 282 m (true thickness of 247 m) in the Enriched zone nearby a historic high-grade- intercept (Figure 5).

“We have four different drilling contractors with 13 drills turning,” commented Michael Meding, Vice President and General Manager of McEwen Copper. “This initiative also involves training and optimizing the entire value chain, with the significant engagement of local suppliers and services.”

After resuming the exploration program in October 2022, drilling has now reached the 25,000 meters initially planned and will continue until the end of the field season. Key objectives of the program include:

...> https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/U-z8802415-U!MUX-20230405/U/MUX

HL / Hecla vs. ATC / Atac ... Merger worth 18 cents

Potentially 20 cents, if HL rises back to $7.38 High

HL vs. ATC, Ugl, Gdxj: HL-$6.41 x1.35: C$8.65 x0.0166 = 0.144.

0.144 (80%)  + 0.036 (20%) = 0.180 (100%) ... 10d chart

xx

HL vs. ATC,

Hecla Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire ATAC Resources

2023-04-06 06:00 ET - News Release
Company Website: https://hecla.com

Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) (“Hecla” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that the Company has entered into a definitive agreement (the “Arrangement Agreement”) with ATAC Resources Ltd. (“ATAC”) to acquire ATAC and its Rackla and Connaught projects in Yukon, Canada.

Under the proposed transaction, the Company’s subsidiary would acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of ATAC for a consideration of C$31 million, or 0.0166 Hecla share per share of ATAC (consisting of 3,693,516 common shares of the Company in aggregate). Hecla would also invest C$2 million in seed capital, equal to a 19.9% interest, for a new exploration company Cascadia Minerals Ltd. (“Cascadia”), which would be spun-out with certain properties to ATAC’s shareholders as part of the transaction. The total consideration to the ATAC shareholders, including the implied value for the shares in Cascadia (C$0.036/share), is C$39 million. The Hecla shares provide ATAC shareholders with a premium of 66% based on ATAC’s 20-day volume-weighted average price of C$0.0845 as of February 17, 2023, the last trading day preceding announcement of the letter of intent, or a 109% premium when including the value of Cascadia shares received.

BUMP

== TLT/ Bonds and TYX/ Long Bond yields are mirror images

Black and Blue lines are mirror images.  Blue TLT= US Treasury BondsBonds are GOING UP.  Rates down

CRB Historical chart - Lower inflation ahead?, starting Reports in April

CRB vs. TYX (10x 30yr TBond Yield: 3.59%) and XLE (Oil stocks: 84.98) :

CRB: 22.15 -0.10, Yr.Range: 21.515 to 29.52... now driving Long term Rates Lower?

BUY Opportunity?: AREIT !  Near P32. (please consult your financial advisor.)

TLT UP, Phl-Reits Lag... BUY Signal .. for Areit and other REITS if TLT/ Bonds breakout

vs.Bonds: YTD: TLT-108.53 +0.28, on 16.4M shs. ; Areit-32.10 (29.6%),

Mreit-14.54 (13.4%), RCR-5.70 (5.25%), Filrt-5.40 (4.98%) @4.06

== TLT/ Bonds and TYX/ Long Bond yields are mirror images

Black and Blue lines are mirror images.  Blue TLT= US Treasury BondsBonds are GOING UP.  Rates down

CRB Historical chart - Lower inflation ahead?, starting Reports in April

CRB vs. TYX (10x 30yr TBond Yield: 3.59%) and XLE (Oil stocks: 84.98) :

CRB: 22.15 -0.10, Yr.Range: 21.515 to 29.52... now driving Long term Rates Lower?

Week's Summary:

REIT Dashboard, 4.06
4stk Areit: Mreit:  RCR :  Filrt
=== 32.10: 14.54: P5.70: 5.40:
Div.  P1.98 : .977 :  .389 : .363:
Yld: 6.17%:6.72%: 6.82%:6.72%
Aver. = 6.61%,  Phl10yr: 6.22%

TLT,  :    TYX =  US,LT : Prem.
108.53, 35.40=-3.54%: 3.07% prev.2.93%
Weekly Comment: BUY Areit?
Phl.REIT premium to TYX is wider
& Rising 0.39% prem to Php.10yr

.vs-etc: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: / ... (/$59.78 UGL)... w/EMX

1.21.22: FNV $130.62 (219%), RGLD $102.25 (171%), OR.t $14.58 (24.4%), EMX.t $2.73 (4.57%), GROY (??)



ROY: fr. 4.6.20: 3yr: GROY-x, SAND-x, EMX.t-x, RGLD-x

From GROY presentation

I am bullish NOW on MEG. And MREIT

If price relationships Hold, it should jump higher, so long as TLT/Bonds move up above resistance.

TLT and MREIT both closed Friday (4/5) right on the 1yr/ 252d MA.

FOCUS on MREIT, MEG: from 2022: Apr'22: Jul'22: 14.54 / 2.01 = 7.23x

CLOSER LOOK... / Mreit vs. TLT, MEG from 1/22:  8/22: 10d:

2022: MREIT appears to be breaking out over the 252d MA, at P 14.60

Theory of the case:  Rising TLT will push Mreit above resistance, and that will help to catapult MEG back to 2.20 and beyond

MEG vs. TLT : MEG-2.01/ TLT-108.25= 1.86%

No breakout yet, but TLT is poised for that. Next few days will be interesting

I am bullish on MEG. And MREIT

If price relationships Hold, it should jump higher, so long as TLT/Bonds move up above resistance. TLT and MREIT both closed Friday right on the 1yr/ 252d MA.

FOCUS on MREIT, MEG: from 2022: Apr'22: Jul'22: 14.54 / 2.01 = 7.23x

CLOSER LOOK... / Mreit vs. TLT, MEG from 1/22:  8/22: 10d:

Theory of the case:  Rising TLT will push Mreit above resistance, and that will help to catapult MEG back to 2.20 and beyond

MEG vs. TLT : MEG-2.01/ TLT-108.25= 1.86%

No breakout yet, but TLT is poised for that. Next few days will be interesting

SAND-etc: update:

=== . Last : Prev.: change: H-range-L, Mid.: BV’22:
CDE : $4.09: 5.36: -23.7%: 2.54 - 5.39, 3.97: $3.01:
EGQ : $5.28: 5.70: - 7.37%: 2.35 - 9.07,  5.71: $7.66
FSM :  $3.90: 4.71: - 17.2%: 2.05 -4.56,  3.31: $4.29
KGC :  $4.76: 5.08: -6.30%: 3.00 -6.34, 4.67: $4.77
SAND  $5.95: 5.70: +4.39%: 4.51 -9.18, 6.85: $4.73
====.             Ave.: - 10.0%
GOLD  18.79: 19.6 : -4.13%: 13.0-25.99, 19.5: 12.97:
MUX.  $8.88: 8.88: +0.00%: 2.81- 8.92, 5.87: $6.81:
RGLD $131.6 110.0 +0.00%: 84.5-147.7., 116.: 41.79:
GDX :  33.08: 36.8: -10.0%: 21.5-41.60, 31.6:
UGL :  63.94: 71.0:  -10.0%: 44.1-70.00, 57.1:
AGQ:  31.01 : 34.4:  -10.0%:  17.6-42.91, 30.3:
====

MUX hits $8.88... +0.41, $4.84% ( Range: 2.81 to 8.92 )

CRB could be bottoming:  Last: 22.465 +0.245 ( Range: 21.515 to 29.52 )

AREIT - etc:  Last:32.50 (Range:30.55 to 47.00), PER: 17.0 Yield: 6.40%

AREIT looks attractive at a 6.4% Yield

HOLDING CO. DISCONNECT?  Why the higher Valuations? AGI /MEG gap is biggest.

Holding Co's: AC, JGS, AGI, FDC .... 2020:

AGI, MEG, vs. AC, ALI ... from 2020: 2022: 10d:

JGS, RLC vs. FDC, FLI ... from 2020: 2022: 10d:

Comparison: Holding Cos vs. Developers

Co.  :  Last : Bk.Vl.: MkCp:  PER :  Yield : Ye’19 : % chg.
AGI  : 12.36: 22.15:  117. B: 6.92x 0.97%:  11.66: +6.00%
MEG: P2.00: P6.24: 63.7B: 4.69x 3.07%: P4.01: -50.1%
Mreit 14.46: 20.60:  36.6B: 10.3x  6.76%: N / A :
AC.  : P650.: 585.3: 403.B: 15.4x 1.06% : 785.5: -17.3%
ALI   : 26.50: 15.83: 389.B: 21.1 x 1.08%: 45.50: -41.8%
Areit: 32.65: 32.40: 49.3B:  17.1 x 6.37%: N / A :
====
JGS : 47.90: 44.58: 360.B: 54.0x 0.84%: 80.80: -40.7%
RLC : 14.70: 24.34:  76.1B: 8.90x 3.40%: P27.55 -46.6%
RCR: P5.80: P6.03:  57.7B: 14.1x  6.70%:  N / A :
FDC: P5.50: 14.29 : 47.6B: 12.3x  1.28%: 13.00: -57.0%
FLI  : P0.75: P3.62 : 18.2B: 6.29x 6.20%: P1.50: -50.0%
Filrt : P5.23: P1.22: 25.6B: 19.6x  6.94%:  N / A :
=====

HOLDING CO. DISCONNECT?  Why the higher Valuations? AGI-to-MEG gap is the biggest.

CLOSE

Holding Co's: AC, JGS, AGI, FDC .... 2020: Oct'21:

AGI, MEG, vs. AC, ALI ... from 2020: 2022: 10d:

JGS, RLC vs. FDC, FLI ... from 2020: 2022: 10d:

Co.  :  Last : Bk.Vl.: MkCp:  PER :  Yield : Ye’19 : % chg.
AGI  : 12.36: 22.15:  117. B: 6.92x 0.97%:  11.66: +6.00%
MEG: P2.00: P6.24: 63.7B: 4.69x 3.07%: P4.01: -50.1%
Mreit 14.46: 20.60:  36.6B: 10.3x  6.76%: N / A :
AC.  : P650.: 585.3: 403.B: 15.4x 1.06% : 785.5: -17.3%
ALI   : 26.50: 15.83: 389.B: 21.1 x 1.08%: 45.50: -41.8%
Areit: 32.65: 32.40: 49.3B:  17.1 x 6.37%: N / A :
====
JGS : 47.90: 44.58: 360.B: 54.0x 0.84%: 80.80: -40.7%
RLC : 14.70: 24.34:  76.1B: 8.90x 3.40%: P27.55 -46.6%
RCR: P5.80: P6.03:  57.7B: 14.1x  6.70%:  N / A :
FDC: P5.50: 14.29 : 47.6B: 12.3x  1.28%: 13.00: -57.0%
FLI  : P0.75: P3.62 : 18.2B: 6.29x 6.20%: P1.50: -50.0%
Filrt : P5.23: P1.22: 25.6B: 19.6x  6.94%:  N / A :
=====

ABX - Barrick enters deal to resume Porgera operations
[2023-03-30 23:48]
Barrick Gold Corp. has signed an agreement with the government of Papua New Guinea and New Porgera Ltd. to resume operations at the Porgera gold mine. A special mining lease will be filed to reopen the mine.

more...

RRI is in... A Looong term Triangle: Last: 0.14 ( Range: 0.10 to 0.185 )

STOCK MELT-UP AHEAD?  

If we are going to see a Melt-up in stocks, it begins NOW!  But No Gtee!

Old: 3/30/23

If this forecast is wrong, we will likely know very soon

Later, AFTER Friday Close:

PSEI was the anomaly, in a strong day for stock indices.

SPY : 409.39 +5.69, +1.41%

Because of LOW VIX (17%), I need to sound a Bear Warning on SPY ($414) / Stocks, which are also at a Resistance level" - posted morning after 4/17 close.

VOLATILITY:  SPX vs. FAZ, TZA... w/VIX :  TvF:2: SxS: B3: SpT: