drbubb

GCM continues to outperform GDXJ GCM -vs-GDXJ ... update : Ratio : GCM.t to GDXJ Playing with "cycles"

ECB posted: Manila Bay has overtaken Ortigas Center starting 3Q2018 and we expect the reclaimed CBD to overtake other established business hubs such as Makati CBD by 2021. By then, Colliers sees the Bay Area having a total of 29,500 units, higher than Makati CBD’s 28,700. http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/philippines/about/media/manila-likely-to-outpace-2017-condominium-sales MORE: Metro Manila condominium sales remain strong despite higher inflation and the central bank’s decision to raise benchmark yields. Latest sales figures indicate that the residential market is likely to outpace condominium sales in 2017. Colliers believes that a mix of demand from offshore gaming employees and local professionals is helping sustain the Metro Manila residential market, partly driving demand for other segments such as dormitories that cater to professionals and students. In 3Q2018, we have also seen the Manila Bay Area overtaking Ortigas Center in terms of number of condominium units. As of the first three quarters of 2018, condominium sales in the pre-selling market which covers units that are currently being constructed reached about 42,000 units, higher than the 38,000 units recorded in the same period in 2017. Given the current trend, the 2018 take up for pre-selling condominium units is likely to surpass the 53,000 units sold in Metro Manila in 2017. For the first nine months of 2018 some 31,000 units were launched compared to 22,600 units in the same period of 2017. The central bank’s decision to raise benchmark yields by 150 basis points so far in 2018 has not deterred developers from launching new projects across Metro Manila. To seize opportunities in the sector, Colliers recommends that developers pursue more projects in the peripheries of established business districts; tap the rising demand for worker housing; tie up with the government for the skills upgrading of construction workers; push for the entry of 100% foreign-owned contractors; and be more flexible to the residential demand of offshore gaming operators. === That is a lot of Flats. Hard to find anyone working in Makati who would want to live in Manila Bay, given the transport challenge. So who will? Rental demand has been fueled by POGO's and some tourist trade. Will that continue to grow? We will see

MAP OF THE FUTURE? The imagined (& partly fantasized?) future of Greater Manila's rail system > Larger image What Will Metro Manila's Railway Network Look Like, With All These Planned Projects? A SkyscraperCity.com forum user imagines the planned railways with the existing ones. A SkyscraperCity.com forum user named OctaviusIII compiled them and mapped out the network of existing, underway, and planned railways and BRT lines. Apart from the LRT-1, LRT-2, MRT-3, and PNR that we already know, this includes: LRT-1 Extension from the existing Baclaran station to Bacoor, Cavite, which starts mid-2018 with a target completion of 2021 LRT-2 East and West Extensions; from the existing Santolan station to Masinag, Antipolo, and from the existing Recto station to Pier 4 of the Manila North Harbor; with a target completion by the first quarter of 2019 for the East extension. LRT-4 which runs from Taytay, Rizal to the Ortigas Business District, with an initial target completion of June 2021. But that target (and those station assignments) were set and planned when the project was still under the Public Private Partnership (PPP) program, and was contingent on a four-year construction period from 2017. Last we've heard, proposals for the LRT-4 project were being prepared by local businessman Salvador B. Zamora III, along with Chinese firms in the fourth quarter of 2017. MRT-5, or the Metro Manila Subway, ... which runs from Mindanao Avenue in Quezon City to the Ninoy Aquino International Airport, with a target completion for the first three stations set for May 2022. Not indicated in the map are the envisioned extensions to Bulacan in the north and Cavite in the south, which were mentioned by Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III. LRT-6, which runs from the tip of the LRT-1 extention in Bacoor to Dasmariñas, Cavite. Last we've heard, the prequalification process for the project was delayed in 2016. It was originally planned to start construction in 2016 and begin operations in 2021. MRT-7, which runs from San Jose del Monte in Bulacan to the Unified Grand Central Station in North Avenue, Quezon City. Construction of the MRT-7 is now underway. The project broke ground in 2016 and is expected to be completed by 2019. PNR Northrail, which runs from Tutuban to Clark. The first phase of this project, which covers stations from Tutuban to Malolos, Bulacan, broke ground in January 2018 and is expected to be fully operational by 2021. Users in the Skyscraper City forum have pointed out some stations are misplaced on the map, and that there are some misspelled station names. Nevertheless, to see all the lines together gives a more concrete sense of what we could have in the years to come. > https://www.esquiremag.ph/culture/lifestyle/public-transportation-network-manila-a00203-20180405 REOPENED recently, Caloocan* > Makati Six trains with a total capacity of 700 to 800 passengers were deployed to accommodate an expected 10,000 commuters. Tugade added the project does not only provide service to commuters but also gives extra income for the government. With a running time of 37 minutes, the DOTr claims the newly reopened line is the fastest and most cost-efficient means of transportation from Caloocan to Makati. The 13-kilometer route stops at the 10th Avenue (Macario Asistio), 5th Avenue, Solis, Blumentritt, España, Sta. Mesa, and Dela Rosa stations. Read more at https://www.philstar.com/nation/2018/08/01/1838956/photos-after-20-years-pnr-reopens-caloocan-makati-line#6GReyDcCc7Ffb8Du.99 CALOOCAN : As of 2015, the city has a population of 1,583,978 people, which makes it the fourth largest city in the Philippines in population.[3] Under the same census year, Caloocan South (Barangays 1 to 164) has a population of 585,091 and Caloocan North (Barangays 165 to 188) has a population of 998,887. The population density of Caloocan (28,387 persons per square kilometer) surpasses that of the NCR population density. Transportation The LRT-1 has a terminal at Monumento that passes through the city's 5th Avenue LRT Station. The railway traverses Rizal Avenue Extension and enters the City of Manila and Pasay City. The stretch can be traveled in about 30 minutes. Philippine National Railways also has a line, with its terminal at Samson Road, and passes through Caloocan railway station, Asistio Avenue railway station, and C-3 railway station. The currently under construction MRT-7 had also proposed two stations located at the northern part of Caloocan that will be passing at Sacred Heart MRT Station and Tala MRT Station. > wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caloocan

PNR to rebuild, upgrade railway system in Q4 2018 By REICELENE JOY IGNACIO May 17, 2017 PNR to rebuild, upgrade railway system in Q4 2018 FOR higher speeds and broader supplier options, the Philippine National Railways will reconstruct its existing railway system starting in the fourth quarter of 2018, a Department of Transportation official said. “The current railway gauge we have is narrow. It limits our speed to 180 kph, while the standard gauge can go as far as 300 kph,” Transportation Assistant Secretary Timothy John Batan told The Manila Times on Monday, on the sidelines of the Asean Multi-sectoral Forum in Valenzuela. The reconstruction does not necessarily mean the PNR aims to attain 300 kph overnight, but it is “preparing at least for the future, if the government can already afford it,” Batan said. Maintaining a narrow gauge limits supplier options which the government is trying to address. “Almost 60 percent of the world is already using a standard gauge,” Batan said. The transport sector is now discussing how to reconstruct the existing railway system without halting train operations, the Transportation official said. “That is an ongoing discussion. There is a way to construct the new system without having to stop the current operations,” Batan said. > MORE: https://www.manilatimes.net/pnr-rebuild-upgrade-railway-system-q4-2018/327624/ / 2 / Station layout All PNR stations were and are presently at-grade, with most stations using a side platform layout. Most have only basic amenities, platforms and ticket booths. Rehabilitated stations along the Metro Manila line have been fitted with ramps for passengers using wheelchairs. Several stations have extended platforms, having an upper platform catering to DMU services, and a lower platform for regular locomotive-hauled services. As of August 2017, most of the stations are being extended and equipped with platform-length roofing, better ticketing office, and restrooms. Future railway systems under the PNR, such as that of the new Northrail line, proposes elevated stations and platforms similar to the LRT-1 and 2, and the MRT-3 and 7 in select sections. > wiki : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_National_Railways

BIG SURPRISE. MAKATI will have the biggest supply increase in 2020. That probably has something to do with the RISE and AIR residences In 2020 the supply increase in MAKATI will be twice that of PASAY+TAGUIG combined. === No problem. There are over 20,000 jobs coming in three new Office Towers nearby ++ AFT is coming in 2 years I am estimating 6.400 units at Rise/Air and maybe just 10-12,000 beds P 1,400 psm for Pasay? Really? That is frankly NOT EASY TO BELIEVE for me (no one I know wud live there) "Chinese are accepting Asking prices" Hmm. if supply nearly doubles in 2-3yrs, I reckon asking prices will come down

RAIL, The Big Picture - in Greater Manila and beyond > source-wiki A Possible Future map NAME CHANGE in MAKATI: Buendia > Dela Rosa Station Dela Rosa Station, Makati is a station on the South Main Line ("Southrail") of the Philippine National Railways. Like all PNR stations, this station is at grade. The station is located at the corner of Dela Rosa Street and the South Luzon Expressway in Makati. Dela Rosa is the ninth station from Tutuban and is one of three stations serving Makati, the other two being Pasay Road and EDSA. Dela Rosa station is the replacement of Buendia station, which was closed on September 7, 2017. On August 1, 2018, Dela Rosa station became part of newly opened Caloocan shuttle line until September 10 when the line was extended to FTI railway station as the new terminus of the said line . . . "THE Philippine National Railways (PNR) will be sending trains to ply the Caloocan-Dela Rosa route once again, decades after it was closed in the late 1990s due to the Northrail project. The Department of Transportation (DoTr), in a statement on Monday, said the train line will start running on Aug. 1, Wednesday." “. . However, the project was defunct, it was not resurrected, until we were able to scrounge extra track material and parts. We resurrected the line in June 2018,” he added. Mr. Magno said the Caloocan line will be used to cater to passengers from Makati and Caloocan while waiting for the new Tutuban-Malolos railway project, also called the North-South Commuter Railway (NSCR) or PNR North 1. > article

PNR got a new Lease on Life, thanks to these Big plans Philippine National Railways « on: September 12, 2018, 09:38:17 AM » Administrator note: See also Act creating the Philippine National Railways ===== https://ppp.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/NSRP_PIM_FINAL.pdf ===== NCR to North PNR Railway North North-South Commuter Railway project

Big Project, with a Big Cost Gov't bumps up cost of North-South Railway NEDA's committee has approved a Higher cost for NSCR, North-South Commuter Rail system. Huge NSCR Project connects: + Malolos-Tutuban rail (NSCR phase-1) + PNR South Commuter Railway (Solis-Calamba) + Malolos-Clark Railway Project (MCRP) When connected will provide, 147 km elevated double-track seamless connection from Clark Int'l airport to Calamba with 36 station. The system will also link with existing railways: LRT-1, LRT-2, and MRT-3, as well as the upcoming Metro Manila Subway (Mega-Manila?) Cost is now put at P777.55 billion (/53=US$14.7 bn.), up XX% from 440.88 Bn. It would be funded through loans from Japan (JICA) and the ADB. The reasons for the big jump in estimated costs: + Shift to elevated viaducts, instead of at-grade, to improve operational efficiency + standard gauge rather than narrow gauge + increase in the number of trains and change from single to double tracks Re-settlement costs are also now included > https://www.philstar.com/business/2018/11/11/1867495/government-bumps-cost-north-south-railway

Seeking Alpha Article Gran Colombia Gold: Extremely Deep-Value Gold Miner Stockhouse Comment: For those of us (few) that invest in and follow GCM, this is a well written article that summarizes the reasons for such a low stock price and the significant upside potential. Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#P5VKSBpxADrbEfcQ.99

These companies jumped on the bitcoin train right before it derailed By Ryan Vlastelica Published: Mar 17, 2018 Bitcoin-adjacent companies have seen sharp losses in 2018 Courtesy Everett Collection It seemed like an unbeatable path to market gains: simply suggest your company was getting involved in cryptocurrencies, and investors would reward you to a startling extent. Throughout 2017, as the digital currency bitcoin was undergoing an astonishing rise in price, a number of companies jumped on the cryptocurrency bandwagon. They announced initiatives into blockchain, the decentralized ledger technology bitcoin runs on, or simply plans to “mine” the cryptocurrency—that is, to solve complex computational problems that validate transactions on the network, with the chance of being rewarded with bitcoin. In many cases, the announcements were accompanied by few details about the new business plan. Read: In one chart, here’s how much it costs to mine bitcoin in your state To a degree that analysts said was stupefying even at the time, such stocks skyrocketed in the immediate wake of the announcements, often doubling or tripling in price as investors hoped to take advantage of what was being touted as one of the hottest investments and technologies in years. Eric Ervin, the chief executive officer of Reality Shares, called such announcements “last-ditch efforts for people to buy their stocks,” calling the firms “terrible companies with no business plan and no technology.” Ervin, the sponsor of a blockchain-related exchange-traded fund, spoke with MarketWatch in January. To a certain extent, the mania was understandable. Bitcoin’s rally took it from under $1,000 at the start of 2017 to over $19,000 by December, giving it a market capitalization that exceeded all but a handful of S&P 500 components at its peak. Ethereum and Ripple, two other digital currencies, saw even larger gains over the course of the year, while some advocates said the rally was only starting, predicting bitcoin prices at $1 million within a few years. And then, things turned. Bitcoin tumbled from $19,300 to under $7,000 in less than two months, and it is currently down about 40% over the course of 2018. Don’t miss: One economist says bitcoin could hit $0—or $1 million Also: Bitcoin may not be done collapsing, but it has bounced back from worse The new class of bitcoin-related stocks have followed suit. While some remain above where they were trading before they announced moves into the industry—sometimes from completely unrelated fields—losses have largely been sizable in 2018, underlining the parallel between dot-com-era euphoria and the current crypto craze, where bets often seem to be made on buzzwords rather than real business. Now that the initial excitement has passed, investors want to see concrete results about how blockchain can fit into the businesses and generate revenue before rewarding stocks on the announcement alone. Take three of the most infamous cases: Long Blockchain Corp. LBCC, +0.00% Canada’s Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd. HIVE, -8.62% and Riot Blockchain Inc. RIOT, -11.38%While the stocks have moved on company-specific news, the drop in bitcoin prices—and the calming of the frenzy that surrounded digital currencies—seems to have contributed to the selloffs. Long Blockchain may epitomize this craze, as this time last year it traded as Long Island Iced Tea Corp., a microcap beverage company. In late December, just days after what would prove to be bitcoin’s recent peak, it abruptly announced a change in both name and focus, turning instead to ”the exploration of and investment in opportunities that leverage the benefits of blockchain technology.” The early days of this new initiative didn’t suggest a clear business plan. On Jan. 5, it announced it was buying 1,000 bitcoin mining machines and that it was making an offering of common stock. Four days later, it is issued a press release saying it wasn’t proceeding with the offering, although the equipment purchase was still going forward. By Feb. 2, however, it had decided not to buy the equipment. The company, which alsoentered into a “letter-of-intent” to be acquired by Stater Blockchain, didn’t return a request for a comment. Such uncertainty has been reflected in the share price, as seen in the following one-year chart from FactSet. It is down more than 40% thus far this year, and down more than 25% over the past 12 months, a period that includes its post-announcement pop. Courtesy FactSet Riot, another new entrant in the sector—it was previously BiOptix Inc., a biotechnology company—saw similar price action. It rallied after announcing its move into the blockchain arena, but the stock saw a peak that coincided nearly perfectly with bitcoin’s, as seen in the following chart. Courtesy FactSet Read: One prominent crypto critic just logged ‘one of the worst days’ on a Riot Blockchain bet The company, which didn’t return a request for a comment, has also faced issues beyond the price of bitcoin. It has been rattled by news reports about insider sales and questions about the company’s operations. The stock has plummeted nearly 75% so far this year, although it remains up more than 110% over the past 12 months, a sign of just how big its initial rally was. Hive Blockchain was quieter, releasing few news releases or corporate updates. However, it has shown a strong correlation with bitcoin; the stock hit a peak shortly before the digital currency did, and as bitcoin has tumbled, Hive has followed. It is down more than 64% in 2018, although had an investor bought shares 12 months ago, she would be sitting on gains of 753%. Courtesy FactSet A fourth example of a new entrant into the crypto arena is Eastman Kodak Co.KODK, +11.15% the famous photography company. In January, after the bitcoin record, it announced a “major blockchain initiative” designed to help photographers license their work and get paid for usage. The stock, as has been the trend, spiked on the announcement. Courtesy FactSet Kodak could be seen as something of an exception to the rule, as it was an established company—one far from its heyday, to be sure, but a former Dow component—announcing a program that had both a clear use case and more detail than other new blockchain companies. The stock remains up 60% for 2018, a spike due almost entirely to the announced program. However, it has significantly come off its highs of that spike, having retreated 63% from its 52-week high. Many analysts remain optimistic about blockchain, even if the technology is still so new that the biggest players have yet to emerge. There are a number of traditional companies working with the technology, although the percentage of the revenue they currently derive from it is minimal. The firm with the most cryptocurrency-related patents is one of the most storied names on Wall Street: Bank of America BAC, +1.16%

Having fun... with the Hang Lung "Stock market predictor indicator" I stumbled across this "indicator" by accident... Hang Lung Properties (HK:101) trades in Hong Kong, and closes BEFORE New York stocks open. Recently, it has been giving reasonably accurate predictions of how IWM / Russell 2000 etf will trade later HK-101 vs IWM and SOXX ... HIS-10d : +HSI+UKX : I have some ideas about why this is working, but I want to follow it for more days before talking about those theories (added in Edit) Longer term, the highs and lows in HLP lined up with some of the IWM turning points, but not all HK-101 versus IWM and SOXX ... : weekly chart : The Magnitude of moves was massively different. And there was one big MISS on the Low in the middle

HK Property Rents correlate with the HK Stock Index COLLIERS - Hong Kong’s importance as a financial centre is demonstrated by its high position on measures of economic scale and wealth such as stock market value (the Hang Seng or HSI equity market is the second largest in Asia after Tokyo), city inward FDI, and volume of cross-border banking liabilities. Financial stocks have a 48% weighting in the HSI, while financial tenants occupy 54% of Grade A office space in Hong Kong’s CBD by our estimate . It should thus be little surprise that there is a clear historic relationship between the level of the HSI and average Grade A office rents in Central, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.86 and a coefficient of variation (R²) of 0.74. This represents the closest correlation between stock index performance and rent levels of any city in this report. As shown in Figure 1, until recently Grade A office rents in Central followed the HSI with a lag of six to twelve months. However, since 2015 the two measures have diverged: rents have risen steadily despite big swings in the stock market. We doubt that this divergence can continue given: 1. the HSI’s 22% fall (as of 5 November) from its January 2018 high, which must have hit the confidence of investment banks and securities firms, 2. the prospect of faster increases in real interest rates in Hong Kong than in most other Asian markets over the next three years, owing to the strong US economy and the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar, 3. the blow to confidence in Hong Kong from the US-China trade war This is the background to our recent downward revision of office rent forecasts for Hong Kong. We now expect citywide average rents to stay flat in 2019 and rise at a 2.5% CAGR over 2018 to 2022. However, we expect Grade A rents in Central/Admiralty to drop by 3.8% in 2019. With few signs of major retrenchment or market exit by large international or Chinese financial firms, rents should steady thereafter Shanghai As the financial capital of China, Shanghai has an equity market value of about USD4.0 trillion with the finance sector accounting for 18% of the city’s GDP. In addition to its importance to the city’s GDP, the finance sector accounts for 31% of the Shanghai Composite Index¹ (SHNCOMP) weighting by industry, and by our estimate for 42% of Grade A office stock in the city’s six prime CBDs (Lujiazui, Zhuyuan, Huangpu, Jing’an, Xuhui and Changning). Given the importance of the financial sector in Shanghai’s economy, one might expect there to be a relationship between the equity market and office rents. However, the empirical result of our ANOVA testing suggests the relationship between the two measures is not high, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.39 and a coefficient of variation (R²) of 0.15. Figure 5 shows that office rents in key area of Lujiazui (which we have used because the data set is longer) diverged sharply from stock market performance over 2009-2014. The equity market in mainland China has its own characteristics which partly reflect government efforts to keep the market stable. Stock exchanges in China are A and B share markets. The A share market (denominated in RMB) is mostly closed to foreign investors while the B-share market (denominated in USD in Shanghai) is open to foreigners. These features help explain why Chinese stock markets can move quite differently from other big exchanges, although Chinese markets are certainly not immune to global pressures. As Figure 9 shows, Grade A office rent in Lujiazui was in a strong upward trend between 2010 and 2016, but has drifted down since then. We assume that the confidence of financial occupiers in Shanghai has been affected by the poor performance of the Shanghai stock market (as of 5 November, down by 25% from its recent peak in early January 2018), and by the renewed weakness of the Chinese currency against the US dollar so far this year. If so, it may well be that office rents in Shanghai’s financial districts start to track the stock market more closely from now on. On the other hand, the economy of Shanghai as a whole looks broad enough to withstand any shocks in the financial sector. We forecast average annual rent growth of 1.5% across the city’s various sub-markets over 2018-2022 Note: Colliers will shortly launch its “Top Locations in Asia (Finance)” report. This recommends the best urban locations for financial occupiers in the region by examining around 60 criteria relevant to choice of location across 16 cities. > Colliers: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/apac/asia/colliers-finance-sector-vulnerability-20181102-2.pdf

Having fun... with the Hang Lung "Stock market predictor indicator" I stumbled across this "indicator" by accident... Hang Lung Properties (HK:101) trades in Hong Kong, and closes BEFORE New York stocks open. Recently, it has been giving reasonably accurate predictions of how IWM / Russell 2000 etf will trade later HK-101 vs IWM and SOXX ... HIS-10d : +HSI+UKX : I have some ideas about why this is working, but I want to follow it for more days before talking about those theories (added in Edit) Longer term, the highs and lows in HLP lined up with some of the IWM turning points, but not all HK-101 versus IWM and SOXX ... : weekly chart : == The Magnitude of moves was massively different. And there was one big MISS on the Low in the middle

Oil is oversold USO, the Oil etf, shows three waves to the downside, and is in bounce territory USO / United States Oil Fund LP ... update : Last: Best buy might come after a bounce and retest, since the "laser beam" down move could cut through support Strong support may not be hit until about $58

Other / WHARF Co's / 1yr : HK4, HK1997 Continuation chart - #1: HK-4 / xx ......... since 12.1.17 : #2: HK-1997 / xx ... since 12.1.17 : xx Combined:

LONG Term & Thought-provoking; Excellent "An inevitable return"? The Fall Of The US Dollar: Is The Return To A Gold Standard Inevitable? As the cycle goes on... an Increasing Supply of Bonds can Only be sold to the public... at INCREASING INTEREST RATES (yeah, and increasing risk of default!)

COMPARISON - Reported Dept. 2018 HLP is More than Malls in China Hong Kong Property Leasing comprises commercial space, office and industrial assets, and residences and service apartments with a total gross floor area of about 642,000 square metre. Some of the more well-knows assets include Fashion Walk in Causeway Bay and Standard Chartered Bank Building in Central. Collectively, total investment properties including those under development were worth about HK$156 billion as at 31 Dec 2017. Valuation According to its 2018 Interim Results, Hang Lung’s Net Asset Value is HK$ 31.9 per share. With a current share price of HK$ 15.58, it is being valued at a Price to Book ratio of just 0.48 times. Peers Comparison Hang Lung’s peers include China and Hong Kong property developers listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, such as Henderson Land, CK Assets, China Vanke and Evergrande. I extracted key metrics from Shareinvestor.com for comparison with its key peers, as shown in table below Company Market Cap (Billion) Price to Book Value Dividend Yield (%) Hang Lung Properties HK$70.07 0.48 4.81 Henderson Land HK$181.3 0.61 3.77 CK Asset HK$205.2 0.65 3.06 China Vanke HK$280.9 1.75 4.17 Evergrande HK$376.7 2.73 4.49 > OTHER: https://www.dbs.com/aics/pdfController.page?pdfpath=/content/article/pdf/AIO/042018/180409_insights_developers_boost_dividends.pdf > LTcharts : charts

The Largest Underground Gold And Silver Producer In Colombia - Gran Colombia Gold Corp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fvFlrAOCKQ One of the TOP 5 HIGHEST GRADE underground mines ! Mining on only Three veins, with 24 more to go ... Now stepping out And Drilling Down, below the existing Mine "We are getting about HALF the Valuation of our Peers" ==

Two of my Favorite Asian property-related shares are Hang Lung & Shang ( I own HK10, but not SHNG yet ) HSI & PSEI, vs HK10 & SHNG ... update : since Nov. 2014 : 10d : video: Hong Kong Is Growing Slowly, Says Hang Lung's Chan Ronnie Chan, chairman of Hang Lung Properties, discusses retail in China, Hong Kong's economy, Hong Kong retail, how the U.S.-China trade war could impact his business, rising interest rates and Hong Kong's residential market. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: China Open" from the sidelines of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. > https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-11-06/hong-kong-is-growing-slowly-says-hang-lung-s-chan-video Major NEWS of 2018 for Hang Lung: Hang Lung snaps up prime Hangzhou plot for US$1.7b/ 29 May 2018 HL's Largest single investment ever? The land is believed to be the most expensive plot for commercial project development in the capital city of affluent Zhejiang province, and one of Hang Lung’s priciest ever mainland acquisitions. Total investment of 19 billion yuan is earmarked for the planned project, a large-scale commercial mixed-use complex, comprising a world-class shopping centre and office tower, the Hong Kong real estate major said late on Monday. HK$ Rmb 19 Bn /6.93= US$ 2.74 Bn x1.13 = HKD 21.47 Billion (1.36B, 2.51B shs) = HK$15.79 per HK10 share, & HK$8.55 per HK101 share Hangzhou City, China's Manhattan > article After 10 years of construction, Hangzhou, in East China's Zhejiang province, has rebranded itself as a quaint modern city. HangLung : IR-news : SCMP :

Ayala's Flats Amorosolo, with 720 units is close to this in Size. PH has some very similar COST issues World's largest dorm-style 'co-living' building... SAN JOSE — The latest trendy new apartment building coming to downtown San Jose will offer plenty of luxury amenities, including cleaning services, laundry and dog walking. The catch? Each resident will share a kitchen and living room with at least a dozen other strangers. The nearly 800-unit building, set to break ground early next year, is the latest project to embrace “co-living” — a dorm-like set-up where residents sleep in small private bedrooms and share common spaces, as a way to pack more people into a building and keep rents down. It’s a lifestyle that’s becoming increasingly popular as Bay Area residents, grappling with sky-high housing costs, are forced to find ever-more creative ways to stay afloat, and developers are encouraged to come up with innovative methods to house more people faster. The San Jose project will be the largest co-living building in the world, according to its developer, San Francisco-based communal housing startup Starcity. The company also has a 270-unit co-living building in the works in San Francisco’s SoMa neighborhood. The two projects, both slated to open in 2021, will be the startup’s first attempts at building from the ground up instead of renovating existing buildings. Together they mark a major expansion by Starcity, and would increase the company’s existing inventory by more than 10-fold. “I think about actually making a dent in the supply to the point where people who are somewhere else in the country, or living nearby, or commuting hours and hours and hours can say, ‘OK now there’s a way for me to get into the city,'” said Starcity co-founder and CEO Jon Dishotsky. “Commuting is a pain in the butt, fitting four people to a two-bedroom is a pain in the butt and paying 70 percent of your income is not enjoyable.” Starcity, which originally bought empty or underutilized residential and commercial buildings and turned them into housing, made its co-housing debut by converting a Victorian house and garage into a six-unit shared living space in San Francisco in 2016. Now the startup operates 81 units in five buildings — four in San Francisco and one in Los Angeles. In the next year, the company plans to finish another 600 units in San Francisco and more than 400 in Los Angeles.

Short term squeeze possibly (Q2? Will it continue into Q3? Q4?) More supply, much more supply is coming. SO FAR, it is being absorbed. Will this continue? We will see. BTW, We have also seen a surge in RENTS in the "Little China" area of Makati. >"Little China" / Tech Zone area, San Antonio, Makati For the same proximate reason: The "china invasion" of Mainland Chinese coming to Manila to work in the POGO industry. I see more squeeze coming in Makati, as three buildings at the City Gate end of Ayala Avenue are being completed at the same time. (What I under-estimated was the impact of DOUBLE & TRIPLE SHIFTING, where one building could generate 2-3X as many jobs as a more conventional building.) ECB, I wish you well with your investments in Manila Bay. Personally, the area never appealed to me, since I find the reliance on gambling & tourism to be too narrow to pass my "makes sense" test. And I would not want to live there/. I am more comfortable with Makati as a focus for investing, and I am happy living there too. In my own experience, I have certainly see a big jump in the number of people I see on the streets and in the restaurants and coffee shops, who look as if they have originated in Mainland China. And they look more like workers than tourists.

Women & Children First? Sara Carter shares her firsthand experience of caravan "They pushed the Woman & Children to the front, putting them at risk"

OLD WISDOM - still relevant The comments apply to far more people than just RVD (an old nemesis) The Need for Discipline & Discernment

Can DBA & GLD lead precious metal shares higher? DBA-vs: GLD, GDX, SLV, SIL ... update : w/XLE, FCX : : w/XLE, FCX : On the longer term charts, the bounce in DBA hardly shows up GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

THREE FOLD PRICE RISE? Properties near subway project to Triple Prices - article in today's Manila Times, pg B2 PROPERTY prices in areas along the planned Mega Manila subway project are seen to double or even triple as developments will be more attractive to buyers due to better accessibility, according to global property firm + Residential land properties may double within 1 km of 13 stations + Commercial property may increase three-fold, from start of construction to full operation Best areas predicted by Colliers to be: 1. Parts of Quezon City, which has 7 of the 13 stations, esp. near the connection of MRT, LRT 2. North Avenue area, and Quirino and Tandang Sora for residential and hotel projects 3. Anonas Street in Project 4 for low and mid rise Condos. (Katipunan has less appeal, 'cuz of limited land) 4. Ortigas North and South Stations, good for high rise offices and condos, thanks to Ortigas Center 5. Kalayaan and BGC for dormitories 6. Government owned properties near Cayetano Avenue, for office, condos, and retail 7. ARCA South to be new major CBD Big firms should consider their own infrastructure projects near stations, and new redevelopment > from Colliers Report, just released