drbubb

... and then the way we live will change, and we will move on to something else. Which may be better.

Nope. They are too busy selling you bank notes, pharmaceuticals, and pressing your children into their wars. I strongly recommend that you sell an ounce of Silver, and buy yourself a video called THRIVE: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15644 Then the scales may fall from your eyes, and you will better understand the realities of this world, and how the elites play their games to fleece you. Piling into Gold, and then getting others to do the same, is a great way for them to win. Then they will have plenty of friendly Gold Bugs also calling for Gold-backing of a new global currency. Then who wins? The biggest winner would be the one holding the most Gold. Where do you think the Gold confiscated by the USA in the 1930's is right now? I don't think it is in Fort Knox. Much of it may be in the vaults of the Federal Reserve Banks. And don't forget the Fed is a PRIVATE BANK owned by too big too fail banks. Do you really want these banksters to be the biggest winners of the high-stakes poker game that is going on?

Try living in a Market Town. This idea fits in with what I have just posted on another thread... I've got a better idea: Don't be a car-driving target at all! Live in s small town, where you can walk down Main street, and wave to your neighbors, and buy your food from a farmer whom you know by name ! I think JH Kunstler may have the right idea in living someplace like Saratoga Springs, NY - where he can get to know his neighbors. Try Totnes (or somewhere like it in the UK)

GOLD : now bloomberg is talking about today's "big plunge in Gold" We have hit my target (near GLD-$152) and so I am buying more aggressively. Do you remember this chart? We have completed, or nearly completed the historical pattern: Today, I have bought: + AGQ Calls (2x Silver) + SLW Calls + UGL Calls (2x Gold) I like responding to opportunity (as shown in my charts) rather than following the rampers on mainstream media, who love to promote investing in Gold when the price is high.

That's how you spell: Opportunity Under Careful H--- ? (something with an H?)

"All bets are off"... "if the system collapses"? I would have thought that is EXACTLY when you will want your hedges and insurance. Isn't that precisely the purpose, to have some sort of protection in the event "the system collapses"? Getting the family onboard with these actions is obviously critical. That is why you may want to view the film THRIVE with your partner: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15644 It is best if you can see eye-to-eye with your partner about the world, and how it works.

My current target is about GLD-$152... But no guarantee it will go that hold, or hold my target price (which I have derived from the 252d/1year MA)

Nothing is certain. There's a risk that rents will fall, and tenants will be unable to pay... If the UK heads into a deflationary collapse in the UK economy and jobs.

Just under halfway into this, BF talks about how "official estimates" of how much Gold is in existence are wrong. He says the actual amount may be 9-10 times as much (!) If he is right, and the Illuminati hold much of the Gold, then maybe the Gold bugs are being "played" by some well-known Gold gurus, who are doing their best to create buyers for Illuminati Gold when (at some future day) they choose to unload. Worst of all might be a Gold-backed currency, so that these illuminati villains (if they exist, and if they hold vast amounts of gold) would be able to unload all their Gold at a high fixed price, and then convert it into cheap earning assets. (I have expressed this point of view here before, and it has been ridiculed by some, but I think BF's comments and the lawsuit he has been reporting on, shows there may be something to my warnings.)

Some did, obviously. I cannot tell you any tales of that. But I did read that one sort of "tangible asset" did not fare too well: Property. Landlords had huge trouble raising rents, and even those who could had to worry about tenants (and non-tenants) doing things like stealing the copper pipes within their flats, and others removing doorknobs and other brass fixtures.

Yeah, I get the idea of an "Insurance Fund". But I think many Gold Bigs are ASKING TOO MUCH OF GOLD - There are some Big Risks that Gold does not hedge. I had this conversation with Dominic not many days ago. He was concerned that I did not hold enough Gold, to get me through the Hard Times that are ahead. And I wondered what is the right amount: 3 months, 12 months, 10 years of expenditures? I think that Caitlin Harris put it well on her FS interview: Some people imagine that they will be able to take their Gold and go somewhere and buy groceries when need them. She said: "Well, you might be able to do that once." JP said, "Why, because the shelves would be empty after that?" Her answer may have surprised him: "No. Because someone may see you at the store using your Gold and then follow you home to take the Gold you are saving." I think the BIGGEST RISK in a very hard times may be : WHERE YOU LIVE. And then after that: Who are your neighbors and how well off are they. If they are all starving and hungry, then holding vast amounts of gold may simply INCREASE the risk to your personal safety and to that of your neighbors.

From the Main board's property thread... I would put it differently: In return for paying a "risk premium" called a rent, a tenant gets : + Use of the property, and + Passes the risk of changes in asset values to the Landlord Many UK LL's living outside London have already discovered that being a "bagholder" in a sliding market is no joy, and I think those with property in London will discover that same truth soon too.

I would put it differently: In return for paying a "risk premium" called a rent, a tenant gets : + Use of the property, and + Passes the risk of changes in asset values to the Landlord Many UK LL's living outside London have already discovered that being a "bagholder" in a sliding market is no joy, and I think those with property in London will discover that same truth soon too.

STRANGE TALE: Terrence McKenna, the I-ching, and the Mayan Calendar

We have entered the final cycle* in the last few days... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-prt5d6m6s *Unraveling of the last helix === === Comment (from there): i have learned a truth. our sun orbits another much larger sun, one ful orbit of the larger sun takes aprox 26,000 plus years. like our planet has differnt seasons as we orbit our small sun, so does the sun as is orbits the larger sun. 2012 is just an equinox, we are entering our suns spring time! (research indigo childs total recall.) 84kingode 7 months ago

Nope. Not a no-brainer. More like a big-risker. The world is changing, and the way we live and where we live - and certainly what people pay for rent may undergo very dramatic change in the future. Do you really think the next 2-3 decades will be anything like the last 2-3 decades ? Think how incredibly stupid most Estate Agents are, and how very narrow they are in their way of thinking. Do you really want to rely on a thought process like theirs to determine your long-run financial future?

Listen to Marc Faber: Mp3: http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-1207-1.mp3 He holds gold, and worries most about a confiscation of gold. If paper gold "fails", that move may follow soon after. (The Illuminati-controlled Fed has grabbed the gold once, what makes you think they will not do so again. If you think you are "safe in Europe", keep an eye on the recent news headlines, and watch and see how much of a role the Fed plays in "the rescue of Europe", if indeed there is a rescue of the Euro.) Faber suggests: + 25% - Gold + 25% - Cash and bonds + 25% - stocks + 25% - real estate (but doesnt say where) Buy boots now (while they are still cheap). Fill them later with cheap non-boot assets.

So do I : At $1500-1600, I would be buying aggressively in all probability. But do not rule out prices below that - which is exactly my point, because "anything can happen" If/when we crack $1600, I will be telling you about how I am buying, and what I am doing to protect the risk of lower prices

Are you in danger of "doing a Bob Chapman" and riding silver prices down all the way to below your average buy cost? Sometimes stops do serve a useful function

"In A Broken System, You Must Be Your Own Central Bank", Sinclair Tells King World News My Dear Extended Family: Eric King of King World News was kind enough to interview me today about the growing fears about the stability of our financial system. To listen to the interview click here to visit King World News... http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/8_Jim_Sinclair_-_Why_Financial_System_is_Imploding_%26_What_to_Do.html

You could study more perhaps, to learn how to hedge in a way that is comfortable for you. Remember, at some point in the future, those 1yr, 5yr, 10yr kitco charts will all show broken trendlines. And if you wait for the break of trend, it may be too late to exit gracefully. BTW This comment: "trading approach is great until the system breaks then all your gains plus initial investment are gone" I regard this objection as a red herring. Have you looked at my BBH portfolio? I am less exposed to a "breakdown in the trading system" than you may think. Much of my funds are safely parked in "Core" Silver holdings, and most of that core is Physical silver. When it reaches the point where I have 10,000 oz of physical silver (ie the same as the passive B&H fund holds), then I will be PERMANENTLY better off than B&H. The cash that I will be using for trading, will just be the profit. (I could put myself into that type of "bulletproof" situation at any time, but am now awaiting a further dip in Silver prices.) Also, you can hedge differently than how I do it. I have a friend in HK here who runs a precious metals oriented hedge fund. He parks a good chunk of his fund into silver and gold, and then hedges the price risk using Puts. If the "trading system" blows up, he will have all of his Gold and Silver. He is only risking the money that he has in the puts. "Different strokes for different folks", even when it comes to hedging.

My comments are no more "shrill" than yours are. I am pointing out the dangers of complacency - what's wrong with that? The main guys who I am criticizing are the loud Gold Rampers (and those who worship them) and, in a much less intense way, those who say "don't worry, precious metals are in a long term bull market so you need not think about price risk". The first crowd are my main target, as you can see here: As for the second group : The complacency purveyors, saying "Don't Worry" - Do they need to be criticised at all? Perhaps not. (And they may represent a majority posting recently on this thread. To go on with this thought, I am risking pissing off at least a few of our valued posters here.) GLD WEEKLY ... update : SLV-weekly Right now, I am expecting something like a repeat of Gold's 2006 pattern === (IF YOU REALLY ARE COMFORTABLE if Gold falls to $1400, $1200, or $1000 - Please skip what follows) === But I do wonder, at what point would people start saying to themselves: Ah oh! Gold has dropped much further than I thought it would, I really wish I had hedged some of (more of?) my price risk. For me, that price level is probably about $1500 in Gold (GLD-$150 on the chart above) and about $25 in Silver, since those are the levels just below where I would have added aggressively to my longs. At levels below that, I would be nursing losses that I could have prevented. Unlike some others here, I actively think about the possibility that "gold will fall further than most people think", and I want to manage my exposure to extreme moves up or down, and think that this is a fair topic for discussion here. It is not something to just be ignored, while people simply hope it will never happen. Or worse yet say: "I am not worried. If prices fall there, I will just buy more." Maybe some will do that (comfortably buy more.) But long experience has taught me that extreme moves are thought of that way until they actually happen. And then when they do come, people instead are filled with fear, and rarely have the courage to pull the trigger. Didn't that happen with many here in 2008? And we could see a bigger percentage move on this drop than we saw back in 2008. I will say one more time : "Anything can happen."

How do you "fight complacency", without making some clear remarks? I am willing to risk hurting people's feelings for the sake of an honest appraisal of the B&H technique. 25%? I am not sure what you mean? (The drop on GLD, I suppose) For SLV, at $30, the drop from $50 is 40%. At $25, it would be half. That's not a trivial opportunity loss. Also, some like Bob Chapman may have GIVEN UP ALL THEIR SILVER PROFITS, it the price falls as low as $18-25. Frankly, that is not a great move, and I hope you can see why. What's the point in seeing a price double, and then watching it fall back and wipe out ALL of one's gains? That is not something to be complacent about, and would suggest that there are better ways of managing ones wealth. People need to be more honest with themselves, more disciplined, and maybe willing to learn some new techniques. You can go to other sites where they will tell you how to stay happy with huge opportunity losses like that. But I put myself in the place of others, and reckon that GEI offers something different: Consistent honesty and integrity : To help others learn the techniques which will help them master the challenges of managing wealth and thriving in what JHK calls a "Long eMergency."

Thanks for those kind words, Sledgehead - And it is great to see you posting again here ! (Where have you been? Do you still read HPC and post there?) It is unfortunate that some folks seem to take offense at my warnings - They are well-meant, and I know from my own trading that "complacency is an enemy of success in trading & investing."

G. I am not short Gold either. I am still net long, with some hedges in place. Sometimes I wish I had gone flat or net short, but I haven't so far, since the drops (so far) seem to be of short duration. But I do think that a big slide in Gold remains possible - if banks stop lending to each other and pull credit from their customers as they did in 2008.