drbubb

TEN SECRETS Of INVESTING In JUNIOR MINERS & EXPLORERS 1/ + A Top Performing sector, but not widely followed - - 2/ + Gold Miners are a Geared Play on Gold Makes sense, since at $500, and with $250 Cost: they are levered - - 3/ + In Exploration : Capital Gains matter not Cash Flow Gold gets value on discovery, when still "in the ground" Thus, discoveries add value YEARS before the gold is produced. And markets get excited by exploration success. But small exploration co's burn cash / Like "burning matches" So risk management of a portfolio is critical. Don't consider a portfolio of less than 5-6 risky juniors, And don't start in the middle of a manic surge. BUY: 5-10% in situ, Hold to 40%, SELL: above 40% - - 4/ + Small can be Better, in Exploration Small Exploration companies... - can get the job done cheaper, - they are more nimble and adventurous, - provide more upside, when a discovery is made, :: and so, can attract top talent Large Mining companies... - have lost many of their best exploration geologists, - have cut budgets, and JV-ed with smaller co's - are acquiring smaller companies at the right stage (some names: Virginia Gold, Viceroy, Nova Gold ...) - - 5/ + First $2 million : Canadian IPO's for New Mining Ventures Costs of going Public: - China: 2-3 years, and over us$1 million - Hong kong: hk$10 million = us$1.25 million - London: pds 400,000 = us$ 700,000 - Canada- venture = maybe c$ 150,000 Every dollar counts, at an early stage Scandals of the past, have been minimised by new regulatory regime. - - 6/ + The Quickest gains are in the Drilling Phase - - 7/ + Placements are structured for Profits In Canada, there is a four month's hold, but... + The shares are typically issued at a discount to market (maybe 10-20%), and + There are usually "Half Warrants" Example: Stock is trading at $1.00 .......... : Placement price might be: $0.85, and .......... : Warrants might be exercisable at: $1.25 (1 to 2 years?): half wts. If the stock... Rises to: Holder makes a profit of: .. $0.85 : Breakeven .. $1.00 : + 17.6% .. $1.25 : + 47.5% ............. :: .......... .... ( 1.90 : 1 ) .. $1.50 : + 76.5% + 14.7% = 91.2% .... ( 1.82 : 1 ) .. $2.00 : +135.3% + 44.1% = 179.4% .. ( 1.79 : 1 ) - - 8/ + Small & Risky Explorer Rule: When it Doubles, sell Half - - 9/ + There's Sizzle in Seasonality: Buy in late Summer & Christmas - - 10/ + A Dud project is not the End of the Road

I think you should consider seeking some academic grants, through universities, etc. When i spoke with Prof. Perlmutter, his opinion was that this work is still highly theoretical, way too soon for practical business applications and investors You may find top Universities, even those in China- which are beginning to get some good funding, more responsive than investors and venture capitalists. It is very hard to find investors with more than a 2-3 year time span Prof.Perlmutter spent years struggling to get access to telescopes. Now that he has started winning prizes and renown, he is pushing for big projects, like a new tlescope to replace Hubble. But this is slow work, and takes good politicing, and loads of patience. If you started with something smaller, it may be easier to make some near-term progress = = THIS WEBSITE, and the contacts and conversations that it is fostering represents a very real way that i have found to advance my own agenda of alternative-energy-as-a-pathway-towards-peace-and-prosperity.

Coeur Mining (CDE) thread, ex. Coeur D'Alene Mining Oct.2022 Update CDE / Coeur Mining... All: from 2016: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: Ytd: 10d/ $3.89 +0.47, +13.79%. (Range: 2.54 to 7.64) 1/ This from MarketWatch "We took the five letters that have done best over the last year. (I left out Closed-End Country Fund Report, the amazing El Cid of investment letters, because it hasn't updated since October 2004. See July 7, 2005 column And we looked to see what stocks they liked. Note: Hulbert Interactive updates dynamically. These results were as of last week. As it happens, only one stock was held by more than one of the top five letters. It was Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE : Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation/ Last: 4.35-0.32-6.85%) , the primary silver producer in the U.S. It was held by seven letters in total, including three of the top five: Ruff Times (up 36.9% vs. the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000's 10.38%); Outstanding Investments (up 30.1%); The Dines Letter (up 20.1%). So I suggested Coeur D'Alene. I could have suggested another stock, probably Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (AU )" : source 2/ This from my long term chart ... All-Data-L: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: $7.98 @ 12/24/19 10yr: To me, the chart suggests it may be a good Buy at just above $4.00- but with a tight stop just below $4.00 (i usually wait until I am in profit, but if it breaks $4 by more than a few ticks, it could fall further)

MM, The world needs alternative energy sources. And soon, before we kill each other fighting over fossil fuels

if coal is the only alternative, as the oil runs out, we will find a way. technology, once invented, can be made cheaper. south africa has gone well beyond nazi germany. meantime, coal stocks have jumped nicely : http://www.coalprice.com/

Coal Mining - China in 2003 China achieved a new record in coal production of 1,608 Mt a 15.4% increase from the 2002 total of 1,393 mt. Coal exports in 2003 amounted to 93 mt, 8.5% increase from 2002, imports reamined constant. Exports are mainly sent to Japan and Korea. China plans to form up to ten large mining enterprises, each capable of producing more than 50 Mt/y. Four top producers currently are: (together: 14.8% 2003 production) Shenhua Group................ : 65.94 mt of commodity coal Yanzhou Coal Mining Corp Datong Coal Corp Shanxi Coke Group Co Safety has been a major factor, with 6,000 fatalities in 2003 ...more: http://knows.jongo.com/res/article/10339

INTERVIEW - China Suntech Sees Solar Cell Prices Peaking -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHINA: August 21, 2006 SHANGHAI - China's Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. said on Friday it expects rising prices for solar power cells will start to decline as soon as next year, fuelling demand for solar energy. "Several major manufacturers, including Suntech, consider that in the next year we need to cut the price ... to bring this industry into a healthier type of situation," said Zhengrong Shi, chief executive of one of the world's 10 biggest makers of solar cells. Solar cell use had been growing rapidly in China, but that was mainly because of government incentives, Shi said. Price cuts would allow the industry to flourish without artificial supports, increasing its transparency, he said in an interview. Prices may fall by 5 to 10 percent in 2007, said China-born Shi, who spent 14 years working and studying in Sydney and became a dollar billionaire after Suntech's initial public offer in New York last December. In February, Suntech said its average selling prices would rise 5 to 7 percent this year. Another threat to the company's margins is the cost of the silicon used to make solar cells. Silicon prices rose nearly 50 percent last year, partly because of competing demand from the computer industry. ...MORE : http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cf...37743/story.htm

some more recommendations from one of the top CEF people... "We created a forum - to follow up discussion after our meetings - but after 6 months with not much activity, we closed it down." Personally, I watch the following: http://www.futurepundit.com/ http://www.thewatt.com/ and http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Climate+Change

have you heard about a new plant in switzerland? cuts silicon cells. highly automated. starts up soon. shud bring costs down somewhat i heard about the swiss plant from one of the investors. it will ipo soon = = slightly off topic: have you any comments on the factory project, JD?

excerpt Shortly after learning of the fMRI research, I was contacted by a young scientist from Iran, Mohammad Mansouryar, trained in nuclear physics. He was excited to alert me to his theoretical work in generating what physicists call exotic negative energy, a prerequisite for the generation of spacetime wormholes, similar to the fictional depiction in the film "Contact." The vision that guides this young man is the ever-shrinking material world, where distance looses all meaning, leading to the conversion of what was once impossible into reality. He is confident that someday the human race will access wormholes through spacetime to touch distant worlds. good mention there

CONVERSATION-- With the Inventor of Solar Cells Solar? MIT’s Technology Review talks to the inventor of the most efficient solar cell, who says: A very reputable journal [Photon Consulting] just published predictions for module prices for silicon for the next 10 years, and they go up the first few years. In 10 years, they still will be above three dollars, and that’s not competitive. Yes, people are trying to make silicon in a different way, but there’s another issue: energy payback. It takes a lot of energy to make silicon out of sand, because sand is very stable. If you want to sustain growth at 40-50 percent, and it takes four or five years to pay all of the energy back [from the solar cells], then all of the energy the silicon cells produce, and more, will be used to fuel the growth. And mankind doesn’t gain anything. Actually, there’s a negative balance. If the technology needs a long payback, then it will deplete the world of energy resources. Unless you can bring that payback time down to where it is with dye-cells and thin-film cells, then you cannot sustain that big growth. And if you cannot sustain that growth, then the whole technology cannot make a contribution. With regard to the dye-cells [he invented], silicon has a much higher efficiency; it’s about twice [as much]. But when it comes to real pickup of solar power, our cell has two advantages: it picks up [light] earlier in the morning and later in the evening. And also the temperature effect isn’t there–our cell is as efficient at 65 degrees [Celsius] as it is at 25 degrees, and silicon loses about 20 percent, at least. If you put all of this together, silicon still has an advantage, but maybe a 20 or 30 percent advantage, not a factor of two. [Meanwhile] a factor of 4 or 5 [lower cost than silicon] is realistic. If it’s building integrated, you get additional advantages because, say you have glass, and replace it [with our cells], you would have had the glass cost anyway. So realistic solar cell production that are cost-effective without subsidies are still a few years away. In the meantime, we’ll have to dig deeper and deeper for new energy sources. ...more : http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/060917/17018_id.html?.v=1

HELPS FOR THE NOVEMBER ELECTION-- Oil Prices Settle Near Six-Month Low As Worries About Supply Threats Ease WASHINGTON (AP) -- The likelihood of finding $2-a-gallon gasoline in some parts of the U.S. is increasing by the day. The nationwide average at the pump is already below $2.50, and with a huge decline in oil and gasoline futures on Tuesday analysts say the outlook for motorists is only getting better. "We'll see sub-$2.25 a gallon retail (prices) by October," said Tom Kloza, director of the Oil Price Information Service, adding that prices below $2 can already be found in Kansas, Missouri, South Carolina and other states. Oil prices sank by more than $2 a barrel Tuesday to settle near a six-month low as worries about supply threats eased and signs of economic weakness in the U.S. signaled a potential cooling of energy demand. The selloff brought crude oil futures to a six-month low, and helped weigh down already sinking gasoline prices. "The real-time fundamentals of supply and demand are bearish," said Societe Generale commodities analyst Mike Guido. Global inventories of crude oil are rising and in the U.S. -- the world's biggest energy consumer -- demand is tapering off. "There are signs that the housing market could have a bigger impact on the economy going forward," he said. Moreover, pre-summer fears that hurricanes would disrupt Gulf of Mexico oil production have so far not materialized and speculators who had once helped to drive prices higher are now making bets on further declines. While the market's psychology has clearly shifted, traders remain cautious about the West's diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear program, though they are increasingly less fearful than they once were that Iran will pull oil off the market. Light sweet crude for October delivery fell $2.14 to $61.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where gasoline futures tumbled 7.58 cents to $1.5038 a gallon. It was the lowest close for front-month crude futures since March 21, when oil settled at $60.57. Oil prices have fallen 20 percent from a record settlement of $78.40 a barrel on July 14. Also influencing trade, analysts said, was the market's preparation for a shift in the gasoline contract. At year's end, the unleaded gasoline contract the market has traded since 1983 will be replaced by a futures contract known as the reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending, or RBOB, which is already being traded actively on Nymex. The move stems from the refining industry's decision to introduce ethanol as a substitute for methyl tertiary butyl ether, or MTBE, in summer blends of gasoline. The unleaded gasoline contract had been reformulated for summer with MTBE. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries confirmed traders' suspicions about the impact of a slowing economy on global demand by announcing that the fourth-quarter demand for its oil would be 320,000 barrels a day lower than previously forecast. In 2007, OPEC expects demand for its crude to average 28.1 million barrels per day, or 800,000 barrels per day less than the 2006 average, in part because non-OPEC supplies are rising. As a result, some analysts believe the Vienna-based cartel, which is pumping close to 30 million barrels a day, may soon cut its output. "If we get below $60, they're going to begin to take away barrels," Guido said. "But it's not going to make a difference." ...more: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060919/oil_prices.html?.v=15

JD, If I twisted you arm, which type of solar cell tehnology would you buy now? Might you change your opinion if your were buying in South China or Hong kong- a warmer, sunnier place? = = MORE from that Sol Heat site: Even in the UK we can harvest solar energy and reduce your water heating costs by up to 70% over the course of a year, regardless of your existing heating system. We have solutions for all common types of existing water heating systems including combi boilers and under floor heating systems. A Sol Heat solar water-heating system will reduce your impact on the environment, our domestic systems can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by over one tonne per year. Most of our domestic systems use a solar powered pump and control system, and are truly 100% green. We provide a full design and installation service, our solar panels and installations are of the highest quality and most efficient available. A Sol Heat system will enhance the value of your property, help to protect you from increasing energy cost and even energy shortages. Sol Heat is an independent company and offers only solar collectors and components of the highest quality. Our systems have a life expectancy of at least 35 years and require almost no maintenance.

MM, I have been thinking about your project recently, and finally got round to reading through most of the paper. I understsnd you will need large amounts of "negative energy" to create a wormhole. Do you really think this is feasible in usable quantities? Wouldn't that require huge amounts of energy, and also create problems of stability wherever the negative energy was created and stored? It seems to me that a practical wormhole, will require quite a number of breakthroughs, and huge capital research and resources over decades

UNIVERSE IS EXPANDING, at an accelerating rate, research has shown. can we dream about traveling around inside, finding moving targets?? : pinwheel galaxy Saul Perlmutter darts around his modest office at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, a cluster of drab buildings nestled in the hills above the University of California campus. With his edgy movements, shaggy hair, and Woody Allen-ish gestures, he could be mistaken for a computer programmer. But it's soon clear that these institutional-lab white walls and gray steel bookshelves— even the rolling landscape outside— are only a minuscule part of who he is. Riffling through a stack of journal reprints and computer printouts, Perlmutter fishes out an article titled "Measurements of Omega and Lambda from 42 High-Redshift Supernovae." During the past 10 years, working in step with a rival group of scientists centered at Harvard University, Perlmutter and his collaborators have peered to the far edge of what astronomer Edwin Hubble called "the dim boundary— the utmost limits of our telescopes." The results, summarized in this innocuous-sounding document, have rewritten the saga of the Big Bang. They offer both a new chronicle of how the universe has evolved and an unnerving prophecy of how it may end. When he set out on his cosmic quest, Perlmutter was still in his twenties, full of improbable ambition. “It goes back to childhood,” he says. “I’ve always been interested in the most fundamental questions.” He began by studying subatomic particles, but by 1983 he was fed up with complicated physics experiments that took years to execute. He sought a different path to universal truth and found it in astrophysics. = = = CATCH ME IF YOU CAN: There is a Type Ia supernova explosion, the kind useful for charting the cosmos, hidden somewhere among the myriad galaxies in this deep-space vista (above). To find it, Saul Perlmutter and his colleagues compared two digital images taken four weeks apart. One galaxy, located 3 billion light-years away, appeared dimmer at first than it did in the follow-up (bottom sequence). Subtracting the later image from the earlier one reveals the glow of a newly erupted supernova. = = = Ever since 1929, when Hubble presented evidence that galaxies are flying apart from the Big Bang, cosmologists had known that the fate of the universe lay in two numbers: the rate of its expansion and the rate at which that expansion is slowing down. The best way to determine those numbers was to measure the distances to extremely remote galaxies and how much their light had been stretched over time. But it was a notoriously difficult task—Hubble’s followers were still bitterly debating the answers six decades later. Perlmutter decided to gamble on a relatively untried technique: He would reckon the distances by the light of supernovas. ...MORE: http://www.discover.com/issues/sep-02/features/featrace/ note from DrBubb: Saul Perlmutter was in Hong Kong accepting the Shaw price for is breakthrough discovery. He spoke at a luncheon organised by HK's University of Berkeley Club, which I attended. After lunch, i spoke with the professor. Later i had the pleasure of spending the afternoon with him and his parents, who attended the awards ceremony. He is a highly intelligent, and enthusiastic guy, who obviously is great at motivating his colleagues in the long search for answers about the cosmos. He is a potential nobel prize winner, and a sort-of Carl Sagan for our new millennium I suppose if i can get him talking with MM, we have the beginnings of the sort of adventure depicted in the film, Contact. (well, we can dream anyway) ##### // the following excerpt is from Centauri Dreams // Creating a Traversable Wormhole Can traversable wormholes be created, allowing us to achieve our wildest dreams of traveling between the stars? Mohammad Mansouryar says yes, and in a paper titled “On a macroscopic traversable spacewarp in practice,” the young Iranian theorist lays out his argument. Mansouryar bases his thinking on a needed prerequisite: the violation of the Averaged Null Energy Condition. He writes up its parameters in a 41 page document stuffed with conjectures, eight boxes of figures and 127 footnotes. Mansouryar’s analysis is intractable to Centauri Dreams, demanding an examination from those far more competent in theoretical physics than myself. Especially given his startling conclusion: “In this paper, I have tried to review the literature, in the spirit of whether the TWs [traversable wormholes] in practice are far reaching or constructible by present knowledge & technology. The conclusion is they are quite possible to manufacture provided a sufficient determination of investment on improving computation tools & necessary materials.” The goal, of course, is all but magical. A workable wormhole using Mansouryar’s methods would allow a spacecraft to take a cosmic bypass, riding a subluminal warp drive through the wormhole shortcut so that distances through space are radically altered while maintaining spacetime stability for passengers. The result is a hybrid of warp drive thinking a la Alcubierre and the classic wormhole as, more or less, conceived by science fiction. On a Web site devoted to his work, the author notes that while increasing velocity in space is a desirable goal, the final goal is not the speed of light. For one thing, even c is too limiting when compared to cosmic distances, and the technical problems of accelerating closer and closer to c still stand. Mansouryar is also well aware of control problems at superluminal speeds, impacts from interstellar dust at high velocity, and the intractable issue of propulsion systems. His goal is to create a system in which local movement is much less than c but, as he says on his Web site “…the considered distance changes so that consequently would be less devoted time, finally in compared to a situation if a light pulse would be supposed to pass the same distance.” ...MORE: http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=561 = = = in reality, establishing a Traversible Wormhole, is a huge challenge, as these words for MM's site confirm: "One of the most important problems of TWs & WDs is an entity called exotic matter (EM) or negative energy (NE). I mean that in some part of them we need NE but it has been yet produced infinitesimally in a phenomenon called Casimir effect. " Infinitesible amounts, to commercially usable & stable amounts may prove impossible, in our age, at least

the small batteries are great, and that seems to be where most of the progress has occurred a big advance will come when they can extend these gains to larger batteries, suitable for cars, and home storage. there is fear about using lithium now because of their tendency to explode when they overheat

thermal solar is great, but suffers from being somewhat boring, and in need of alot of messy plumbing

by the time the new oil is online, demand will have grown enough to consume it easily

REAL WORLD / Real System === Battery Bank/Battery Cabinets Stores the energy collected by the PV modules or local utility. The battery bank is located in the large green cabinets on the floor of the West end of the mechanical room. It is comprised of 24 100 amp-hour deep-cycle batteries. This adds up to about 28,000 watt-hours of power stored when the batteries are full (100 amp hours times 12 volts, times 24 batteries). The battery bank is kept full, and is used to run selected household circuits when the local utility fails (often due to Winter storms). In practice one should never discharge a battery bank completely, so there’s around 14,000 watt-hours of power available at about a 50% discharge. The battery bank could be discharged to this level over a hundred times in its life. By adjusting inverter setpoints the inverters will turn off at a certain low battery voltage. This protects the battery bank from possible damage due to excessive discharge. If very few deep discharges are anticipated in the life of the battery bank these setpoints can be adjusted to provide additional power, and the inverters will tolerate a lower battery level. If an inverter turns off due to a low battery state all the circuits on the backup panel will cease to operate. The backup panel will be powered again when utility power is restored or the PV modules sufficiently recharge the battery. Inverter Converts PV module power to household power, can “sell back” power to the utility grid, charges batteries from utility power. The inverters are power-conversion devices. They are the two black rectangular boxes near the bottom of the middle of the power panel at the back of the mechanical room. The inverters convert the PV module power to battery- and household/utility-power. They also manage the connection of utility power to a portion of the household power system, and can “sell” power from the PV modules back to the local utility. @: http://www.oceansolar.com/components.html#BBBC

Interesting points, CJ - - "Could somebody explain to me the concept of warrants and their affect on share price..... As partial consideration for GE Energy Financial Services agreeing to the waiver and amendment, the Company has agreed to adjust the strike price of the 2,000,000 warrants previously issued to GE Energy Financial Services to a strike price of US$1.122 per share (currently equivalent to £0.60 per share), - Warrants are the right, but not the responsibilit, to force the company to issue new stock at the wt strike price. Adjusting the strike downwards, as GE has obtained, means the warrants are more likely to have value, and be exercised. That would be dillutive, since it would mean more stock being issued at a lower price. But 2million shares is nothing to get too woreried about, I would say

"I'm not a fan of PV - a lot of the assumptions about its cost effectiveness have been based on the artifically depressed prices of the input costs (junk silicon). This has severely biassed cost comparisons against competing thermal solar solutions in favour of PV, when in reality thermal solar should be the most cost effective and carbon neutral solution." THAT IS a very good point about depressed Silicon Prices Howeverm, I am aware that there are various research efforts to create PV cells that make use of other cheaper replacements for Silicon, so PV may regain its cost advantage

I own quite a few shares in GAL.v / GAL.L Most were acquired in a placement at C$0.10, and thru exercising warrants at C$0.15. But I ahve also sold shares at over C$0.30, and more recently bought more in the market at C$0.25. Once they announce they are in production, and it is running smoothly, I would expect to see the stock trade above C$0.35, and perhaps above C$0.40

You might want to look at : Coal International (CLN.L) and its parent co., Cambrian Mining CLN looks cheap. I own some from a higher price. And also some shares in EnergyBuild, a pre-IPO company, which which they have partnered to develop a coal project in Wales i am still trying to figure out what to do with the domain name: www.CoalPrice.com : could be valuable in this rising energy market

Daft questions are welcome, M. At times, I specialsie in daft answers. You might want to exchange some views with Frizzers about scriptwriting and comedy. He has some useful contacts in that area

YES. Charts can be useful. This one, suggests to me that Crude has at least a little further to fall WTI Crude Oil (WTIC) ... update I might think alot lower, but the Oil shares are behaving as if a low is nearby