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drbubb

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  1. GOLD vs UGL: 17.60 / 60.53 = Ratio-29.1%

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    Barrick produces 1.01 million oz of gold in Q2, says on track to achieve 2023 targets

    Kitco News) - Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) (TSX: ABX) announced Thursday that the company produced 1,009 koz of gold in Q2 2023, which is a decline of 3% compared to Q2 2022 (1,043 koz) and an increase of 6% compared to 952 koz produced in Q1 2023.

    The company said its Q2 2023 gold production was higher than Q1 2023, primarily as a result of higher production at Carlin, driven by a return to normal throughput levels following significant maintenance undertaken in the first four months of the year, as well as higher grades at both Kibali and Veladero.

    Barrick added that compared to Q1 2023, its Q2 2023 gold cost of sales per ounce is expected to be 3% to 5% lower, total cash costs per ounce are expected to be 1% to 3% lower, and all-in sustaining costs per ounce are expected to be up to 2% lower.

    The company also reported it produced 107 million pounds of copper in Q2 2023, which is a decrease of 11% compared to Q2 2022 (120 million pounds) and an increase of 22% compared to 88 million pounds produced in Q1 2023.

    > more: https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-07-13/Barrick-produces-1-01-million-ounces-of-gold-in-Q2-says-on-track-to-achieve-2023-targets.html

  2. Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected

    Key Points
    • The consumer price index rose 0.2% in June and was up 3% from a year ago, the lowest level since March 2021.
    • Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4.8%, respectively.

    FN45KMW.png

    Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 4.8% from a year ago and 0.2% on a monthly basis. Consensus estimates expected respective increases of 5% and 0.3%. The annual rate was the lowest since October 2021.

    > https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/inflation-rose-just-0point2percent-in-june-less-than-expected-as-consumers-get-a-break-from-price-increases.html

    ===

    The INFLATION REPORT Brought Good news.

    Why it might not Last.

    The slowest inflation in more than two years is undoubtedly good news.

    The 3% annual rate of price increases in June was even lower than economists had expected. It keeps alive the thesis that the Federal Reserve may soon be able to stop increasing interest rates, as well as the idea of “immaculate disinflation”—in which inflation cools without the need for a recession or a spike in unemployment.

    Of course, it doesn’t really change expectations for a quarter-point Fed hike on July 26. But it does make a follow-up hike on Sept. 20 less likely.

    Given inflation’s rapid retreat from its 9.1% peak a year ago, it’s worth asking why Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said just last month that he doesn’t expect it to return all the way to the 2% target until 2025.

    For one thing, core inflation remains elevated–the drop in the headline inflation rate is mainly due to the retreat of prices for things such as food and energy that were very high a year ago. Over the next few months, those effects will wear off.

    More generally, one good data point doesn’t mean inflation has been conquered. We’re not going back to the low-inflation, low interest-rate world we lived in before the Covid-19 pandemic. As J.P. Morgan Asset Management wrote in its mid-year investment outlook, the world has moved from one of abundance to scarcity, be that in money supply, energy, or labor.

    Make no mistake, interest rates aren’t going to come down as quickly as they rose...

    > more: https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/what-to-know-today-fc7ede?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

  3. MEG looks like a COILED SPRING?

    Earnings and Dividends are likely to rise in 2023. EPS >0.56 PE:3.6,  Divs >0.10 (5%)... or higher

    2022 Div. was decided in Oct.: P 0.06146228, ex-div.:  26-Oct-2022, at 2.00; 3.07% Yield

    MEG-etc : 2yr:  from 7.13.21: YTD: 10d:

    ZfQqE9x.gif

    ===

    Stock : Last : shs.OS: MkCp: BkVal.  BV/sh.
    MEG. :  2.00 : 31.49B: 63.0B: 209.B: P6.64:
    MReit : 14.24: 2.532B: 35.1B: 49.5B: 19.56: at YE’22
     >now: 14.24: 3.20B? ?45.6B 62.0B: 19.3E estimate??
    Owns* 14.24: 2.17B? ?30.9B; 49% of MEG's MkCap
    ====
    Stock: Rev’21 Rev’22 Q1’23:  (x 4): chg'23
    MEG : 46.38B: 55.11B: 16.2B: 64.8B: +18%
    MReit: 2.64B :  3.67B: 1.33B: 5.30B: +44%
    MEG
    NET : 13.43B: 13.46B: 4.60B: 18.0B: +34%
    Earns  13.2B :  13.5B :  Est,>: 18.0B:
    / sh. :  .0.42  :   0.43  : 0.14E: 0.56E x31.46B
    Divs    1.34B : 1.93B :  Est.>: 3.15B:
    / sh. :  .0425 : .0615 :  Est.>: 0.10E x31.46B
    MReit
    Revs:  2.64B :  3.67B:  1.33B:  5.30B: +44%
    xPct :   N/A% :  63.5%:  Est.>. 64.0%
    Earns.   NEG. : 2.33B : 0.85B: 3.40B:  Est.
    Divs.    0.61B : 2.45B : 0.80B: 3.20B:  Est.
    / sh. :   0.240 : 0.970 :  Est.>:  1.00E xBelow
    Sh.OS. 2.53B : 2.53B :  Est.>: 3.20B
    MEG’s
    61,68%*. .37B: 1.49B :  x 4 >: 2.18B:
    %MEG’s
    Earns.   N/A%: 17.3% :  Est.>: 18.9%:
    Divs.     27.6%: 77.2%:  Est.>: 69.2%:

    *Based on 61% of 2.532B (= 1.54B) +25% ( 0.63B)= 2.17B, 67.8% of est. 3.2B

    **Assumes Div > P0.10, 5.0%, at P2.00
    EPS > P0.56, with 18% payout, PER: 3.57x

    ====
    "We look forward to finalizing MREIT's next set of acquisitions soon," says Kevin L. Tan, President and CEO of MREIT, Inc. When the new acquisition being eyed by MREIT is concluded, the company's portfolio will grow to around 475,500 sqm, higher by 46% compared to the current 325,000 sqm and bringing MREIT closer to its target of 500,000 sqm of assets under management by end-2024. Since its IPO in 2021, the company has already injected eight office buildings into its portfolio and grew its value by 25% to Php62 billion, following the two sets of previous acquisitions

    ===

    C03622: Megaworld first quarter 2023 income performance

    Megaworld Corporation posted a net income of P4.6-billion in the first quarter of this year, up 30% from P3.5-billion during the same period last year as all core businesses registered strong topline growth. Consolidated revenues grew by 24% to P16.2-billion. Consolidated revenues and net income are already 9% and 11% higher, respectively, compared to the first quarter of 2019.

    . . .

    The properties to be infused are dividend accretive, meaning that the properties are expected to increase MREIT’s dividend payments to its shareholder.
    “The SEC approval of our property-for-share acquisition results in the recognition of income from the new assets by MREIT from January 1, 2023, which will help drive our growth,” said MREIT President and CEO Kevin L. Tan.
    He noted that, “The high occupancy rate of these buildings is a clear proof of the quality of our assets and their strategic locations. The new office assets from McKinley West now command one of the highest rental rates in the Greater Manila Area, supported by the high demand for office space in this area.”
    “We’re committed to grow our portfolio size by 54 percent to 500,000 square meters by 2024. This will help us achieve our goal of delivering at least 10 percent annual total shareholder return as we are now looking forward to the next phase of MREIT’s growth,” added Tan.

    > More: https://mb.com.ph/2023/3/29/sec-approves-mreit-s-stock-for-asset-swap-with-megaworldx

  4. HALVING IS COMING.  Likely to Push BTC higher in 2024

    sFsBvNX.jpg

    The block reward is currently 6.5 BTC, meaning that after the next halving, the block reward will drop to 3.25 BTC. This translates into a total of 450 BTC being minted each day.

    During the lead-up to previous halvings, Bitcoin’s price has historically bottomed between 517 and 547 days prior, which aligns with the most recent bottom in the BTC market on November 19.   A chart on the performance of Bitcoin relative to the halving cycle was provided by Cryptollica, which shows that BTC price begins to trend up as the halving approaches, followed by a blow-off top phase where its price experiences a parabolic rise and then a rapid sell-off

    > source: https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-07-10/Bitcoin-could-hit-50K-in-2023-and-120k-by-2024-Standard-Chartered.html

    CRYM3BTC: $38.68k /Riot ($12.86, 3.01k), Mara ($12.38, 3.12k), Hive ($3.15, 12.3k) @11.28.23
    9.05.23:  BTC: $25.76k /Riot ($11.04, 2.33k), Mara ($12.00, 2.15k), Hive ($3.47, 7.42k)

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    9.05.23: 
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  5. Megaworld expanding Business; P350B new developments

    MEG vs MReit: YTD: w/TLT: 10d: MEG: 2.01, MReit: 14.30, PSEI: 6,399

    cE6Ejy6.gif

    w/TLT: 10d:

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    MEG-etc.  from 2016: ytd: 10dMEG: 2.01, AGI: 13.22, JFC: 236.20

    QbiEVKS.gif

    Megaworld to spend P350-B in the next 5 years to accelerate...  ( P 350B/ 31.5 B sh= P 11.11 / share )

    Megaworld Corporation is allocating P350-billion for capital and project development spending starting this year until 2027 to accelerate and further expand its township footprints across the country.

    - 1 /

    "MEGAWORLD TO BUILD ITS FIRST BEACHSIDE RESIDENTIAL CONDO IN SAN VICENTE, PALAWAN"

    The 10-story Oceanfront Premier Residences will offer 189 'smart home' units featuring views of the sea and the lush mountains surrounding Megaworld's 462-hectare Paragua Coastown Property giant Megaworld is launching yet another milestone development within Paragua Coastown, its expansive 'ecotourism' township in San Vicente, Palawan. The 10-story Oceanfront Premier Residences will offer 189 'smart home' units in varying types with sizes ranging from Studio with Balcony (32 square meters), Executive Studio (up to 42 square meters), Executive Studio with Balcony (up to 38, square meters), One Bedroom with Balcony (44 square meters), Executive One Bedroom with Balcony (up to 54 square meters), One Bedroom Premier Suite with Balcony (up to 71 square meters), Two Bedroom (64 square meters), Two Bedroom with Balcony (up to 71 square meters), and Two Bedroom Premier Suite with Balcony (up to 105.5 square meters).

    "Our first-ever residential condominium development will rise just a minute's walk away from both the beach and the soon-to-rise Savoy Palawan. Future residents will be able to truly enjoy a luxurious resort lifestyle at Oceanfront Premier Residences and marvel at the beauty of the surrounding landscape since Paragua Coastown lies in between the pristine beach and the mountains. What's more, families will also enjoy our new unit varieties—our One Bedroom and Two Bedroom Premier Suites—which come with several features specifically designed to give active adults the freedom and ease of movement throughout their space," says JR Abustan, head of sales and marketing, Megaworld Palawan. Smart features in a beachside address All units at Oceanfront Premier Residences will feature wireless smart home systems.

    ==

    2 / Megaworld launches 'Smart Home' condo tower in Manhattan...

    Megaworld Corporation is launching its latest high-rise residential condominium development within the bustling Manhattan Garden City complex at Araneta City in Quezon City, the 39-story Laurent Park. To be completed in 2029, this new residential tower is expected to generate around P6.5 billion in sales.

    3 / Megaworld to build P1.5B convention center near the beach in...

    Property giant Megaworld Corporation is building the Mactan Expo Center, a P1.5-billion standalone convention center, inside its 30- hectare The Mactan Newtown township in Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu. Construction of the Mactan Expo Center will commence this year, and is expected for completion by 2025.

    "MEGAWORLD TO BUILD P1.5-B CONVENTION CENTER NEAR THE BEACH IN MACTAN" The 2,500-seating capacity Mactan Expo Center will further boost Cebu's MICE tourism industry Property giant Megaworld is building a two-level standalone convention center inside its 30-hectare The Mactan Newtown township in Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu. Set to rise just across the newly opened Belmont Hotel Mactan along Newtown Boulevard, the P1.5-billion Mactan Expo Center will offer almost a hectare of MICE space (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions). T

  6. Royalty firm Sandstorm Gold reports record revenue in second quarter

    Kitco News |

    (Kitco News) - Sandstorm Gold (NYSE: SAND) (TSX: SSL) reported Thursday that the company sold approximately 24,500 attributable gold equivalent ounces and realized record preliminary revenue of $49.8 million in Q2 2023.

    Sandstorm Gold (NYSE: SAND) (TSX: SSL) reported Thursday that the company sold approximately 24,500 attributable gold equivalent ounces and realized record preliminary revenue of $49.8 million in Q2 2023.

    In the comparable period in 2022, the company sold 19,276 attributable gold equivalent ounces and realized revenue of $36.0 million.

    OZ:    19,276  >  24,500 : + 27.1 %
    USD: $36.0M > $49.8M : + 38.3%

    GLD vs Price:
    jul.7: $162.23 > $178.64: + 10.1% GLD
    jul.7:   $5.81   >   $5.18   : - 10.8% SAND
    shOS 200.0m > 275.0m :  +37.5%, est. SAND sh
    ====
    Sandstorm issued approximately 74.4 million common shares of the Company (“Sandstorm Shares”) to former Nomad shareholders

     

  7. QQQ-etc. Update: SPY: 438.55, QQQ: 366.24, TLT:  $99.08:

    HMcNMyv.gif

    QQQ and SPY too, may have run into important resistance

    With TLT so weak - and I have been wrong about bonds this year, expecting a rally, not a sideways  move - then it is hard for me to believe stocks can rally more now, without some Help from Bonds, ie a drop in long term rates.  Perhaps rates will fall from here, and we will get Hunter's final "Melt-up" in stocks.  Or rates will fall further and the Stock Crash awaited by some will come now.

  8. COMMENTS from a Viber chat.

    +37.5% Gain in QQQ this year!

    Here is the Actual Performance of various indices during 2023

    Update, changes this year
    Index: YE’22 : Jul.7th :  Chg.  :  Pct .  :
    SPY  : 382.43: 438.55:  56.12: +14.7%
    QQQ : 266.28: 366.24:  99.96: +37.5%
    TLT.  : $99.56:  $99.08: -0.48: -0.49%
    GLD  : 169.64:  178.64:  +9.00: +5.31%
    BTC. : 16.50k:  30.40k: +13.9k +84.2%
    ====

    Anyone who is curious about my comments over this year, can check a thread on my GEI website, that I update from Time-to-time.  Here’s a comment from early 2023.

    STOCKS: BULLISH Set-up for 2023. update: SPX: 3,999 (12 mo: 3,492-4,665) Bullish set-up now for US stocks: Possible Reverse Head-and-Shoulders, with downtrend about to break.  Bearish sentiment, with BIG CASH on the sidelines ”
    > More:  (see above)

    2 /

    ( Compare my comments and track record with that of the Perma-Bears.  Haha.  Seems like every time we get a drop of a few points, the CRASH is about to begin. I expect that some reading of the Elliott Theory may be behind that.  I read Prechter's books, corresponded with him by mail a few times. And even met him/. I respect his thinking and writing.  But I found that reading his Monthly newsletter was not improving my trading results. So I stopped taking it.  Perhaps others can get more value out of it than I was able to.)

  9. FOOD PAIR :  JFC vs. MAXS ( & AGI)

    MAX etc: 1.20.16: 4.70, bv:4.97 (94.6%), pe:5.60x, y:4.10%.  JFC: 242.8, bv: 55.61 (437%), pe: 39.5, y: 0.95%

    JbQ1vx7.gif

    MAX etc: 1.20.16: Ytd: 10d:  AGI: 13.40, bv: 25.42 (52.7%), pe: 7.31x, y: 0.90%

    XF8Mica.gif

    C04606: Max's Group press release

    Max's Group Announces Management Changes Max's Group, Inc. ("MGI" or the "Company"), the country's largest casual dining chain, today announced management changes to re- align its focus to its customers as it further stimulates growth across all its business units.

    MGI will be led once again by Robert F. Trota as President and CEO, reporting to the Board of Directors. In this role, the business units of Max's Restaurant, Yellow Cab Pizza Co., Pancake House, Krispy Kreme, Jamba Juice, Teriyaki Boy, Sizzlin' Steak, Dencio's, and manufacturing arm, No Bia, Inc. will report to Mr. Trota. This change will take effect following the resignation of Ariel P. Fermin, current President, effective August 31, 2023.

    "Today's announcement represents the continuing evolution of the business, relying on strengths we have developed and mastered throughout the years," said Sharon T. Fuentebella, Chairperson, Max's Group, Inc. "Our course remains unaltered. The customer will always be at the center of what we do. Robert has over 20 years of experience in the food and beverage industry, and together with the Board and Management Team, we will ensure the Company's goals are executed consistent with our Vision and Mission." Added Fuentebella, "Finally, I would like to thank Ariel for his innumerable contributions to MGI. He led the Company through one of the most challenging periods of our time. Through his leadership, MGI not only beat the odds during the pandemic, but refined the model for our existing business and established new opportunities in a fast- growing food retail category."

    ===

    *Ariel Fermin quits just 18 months after being ...

    Jun 13, 2023MAXS announced that Ariel P. Fermin is resigning as president effective August 31. In its disclosure, MAXS revealed that Fermin was quitting due ...
     
    Isaias Ariel P. Fermin ... The former president of Greenwich and Chowking is departing from the Max’s Group of restaurants just a little over year into his top post.
    ...is a Philippine businessperson who has been at the head of 6 different companies. Presently, he holds the position of President & Director at Max's Group, Inc., Chairman for PLDT-Philcom, Inc. and Chairman of PLDT-Maratel, Inc.
     
  10. UPDATE, DEC...  APX is getting some help from rising UGL/ Gold

    PX vs APX: APX / PX  : Prem.?= Ratio:  ========= : UGL :  apx%
    12.12.23:    2.88 / 2.96: (0.08)=  97.3% ( - 2.7% disc.): 59.25: 4.86%

    11.06.23:    2.65 / 2.87: (0.22)=  92.3% ( - 7.7% disc.): 60.61:  4.37% *11.03 ugl
    9.13.23 :     2.50 / 2.75: (0.25)=  90.9% ( - 9.1% disc.): 56.46: 4.43%
    7.27.23 :     3.04 / 2.97: +0.07 = 102.4% (+2.4% prem) 59.36: 5.12%
    7.03.23:     2.42 / 2.79 : (0.37)=  86.7% (-13.3% disc):  58.42: 4.14%
    5.04.23:     3.20 / 3.05: +0.15 =  104.9% (+4.9% prem) 67.47: 4.74%

    zzzeUjz.gif

    APX since 2015:  2020: Last: P 2.87

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    GLD - semi-annual: from 2022: Last: 177.30 : APX: 2.50, is 4.42% of UGL (56.53)

    69cO3ha.gif

    ===

    APX vs PX :  2.42 +0.06 / 2.79 +0.07... (0.37 under) = Ratio: 86.7%

    62hvZL8.gif

    ===:  APX :  PX  : prem.:  Ratio :     disc.
    4.26: 2.90 : 3.19 : (0.29): 90.9%: - 9.09%
    4.27: 2.84 : 3.17 (0.33): 89.6%: - 10.4%
    4.28: 2.99 : 3.11 :  (0.12) : 96.1 %: - 3.86%
    5.02: 2.89 : 2.90: (0.01): 99.7%: - 0.34%
    5.03: 3.05 : 2.98: + 0.07 : 102.3% +2.35%
    5.04: 3.20 : 3.05:  + 0.15 : 104.9% +4.92%
    5.05: 3.07 : 3.10 :  (0.03) : 99.0%: - 0.97%:
     . . .
    7.03: 2.42 : 2.78 :  (0.36) : 87.1 %: - 12.9%:
    7.04: 2.48 : 2.80 :  (0.32) : 88.6%: - 11.4%:
    7.05: 2.48 : 2.73 :  (0.25) : 90.8%: - 9.20%:
    7.06: 2.52 : 2.79 :  (0.27) : 90.3%: - 9.70%:
    Fri. : 2.60 : 2.77 :  ( 0.17) : 93.9%:  - 6.10%:

    July 7th Update:  PX > APX

    PAIRS Trade... Swap from PX (2.77, -0.02) > APX (2.59, +0.07) is starting to bear fruit!  Moved from APX at 87.1% > 93.5% of PX

    I used the Pairs-trade swap from PX into APX (last week and at the beginning of this week), as a low-risk way to trade out what seemed like a bad foray into PX stock.  Now it APX rises back to a premium, I will have a decent profit out of a possible mistake

  11. Gold SWOT: Barrick Gold has become noticeably fixated on copper

    Strengths

    • The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, but still down 2.11%. Despite a "brutal week" for gold, it managed to find support by Friday, indicating a possible floor for the price. Swiss gold exports surged, particularly the shipments to India. This indicates strong demand for gold in India, one of the world's largest consumers of the metal. The rise in exports to Turkey and Hong Kong further suggests increasing global demand for gold.

    Opportunities

    • According to Bank of America, looking at monthly gold price returns over the past 52 years, January stands out for its strong average return of 1.95%, with the price up 54% of the time. There are three other months with average monthly gold price returns in-excess of the 52-year average monthly return of +0.78%. These are December (+1.37%), September (+1.34%), and August (+1.18%), with the price up 56%, 54% and 58% of the time, respectively. The remaining months all have average returns below the 52-year average monthly return.
    • Bank of America notes that holding gold for December and January improves the average return to 3.32% with the price up 60% of the time. Holding gold from December to February further improves the average return to 4.12% with the price up 58% of the time. Meanwhile, holding gold through the summer months (July to September) has worked, but has been less rewarding with an average return of 3.10% and the price up 60% of the time. Gold has historically appreciated in summer ahead of strong Indian demand in October/November.
    • For a company with “gold” in its name, Barrick Gold Corp. has become noticeably fixated on copper. The world’s second-largest bullion producer recently approached First Quantum Minerals Ltd. to discuss a potential takeover, Bloomberg reported last week. And while the move was unsuccessful — Barrick’s informal overtures were rebuffed — its interest in buying a $17 billion copper miner provides the starkest evidence yet of a shifting focus at the company whose origins lie in Nevada’s gold veins.
  12. HIVE ($4.63) vs BTC: / (Bito 16.98) = R: 27.3%

    56q5SG5.gif

    Bitcoin (30,125 -425, -1.38%) / BITO (16.98 -0.21, -1.22%) vs.
    HIVE ($4.63 Unch, -0.0%) R: 0.00015, R: 27.3%
    Owning HIVE as a proxy for Bitcoin has been a good move, because it has outperformed BTC, even though its main business is earning Bitcoins from its mining operations.
    In fact, I took advantage of the more rapid rise by selling 1/3 of my Hive position at $4.80.
    I have higher SELL orders on the other 2/3rds.  The sale at $4.80 was above my cost of <$3.00, by at least 60%, and dramatic outperformance against the more modest 14% rise in BITO (from $15.29 >$17.45 on Friday’s opening.)

    HIVE has just reported a huge loss (-$2.85 /sh.) for fiscal year ended Mar.31, 2023.  But has written down many of its assets and equipment and may be slated for some very positive earnings in the year now ahead.

    Note: $8.09 x 1000 shs =  $8,090/. ++ HIVE. $2.99. x 3000 shs = $8,970/. Total = $17,040 /

    Update: E: $9.94 ($9.94k), +4.8k + 4.63 (9.26k) = $24.0k / Net: $6.96k (+40.8%)

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