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About aliveandkicking

  • Birthday 08/29/1955

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    Helsinki Finland

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  1. Anything that makes sense and appears to work will get reasonable funding. QEG made no sense at all. The whole resonance idea was misunderstood from start to finish and it was obvious that what they had done and what they were talking about totally did not reconcile at all. The cold fushion 60 minutes was very interesting, but what you need to see is independant replication of results, rather than checking over a system in Israel for a couple of days and concluding the work was being carefully done. Fairly clearly it can take days of inputting power to get power out so the opportunity of introducing errors is fairly huge. In any case we already have consumer units available that produce more power for the consumer than the consumer provides, which are highly reliable and have very compelling economics. These units are called heat pumps. Rod Duncan did this talk a week after 60 minutes where he says a little more on the topic of cold fusion possibilities. Obviously the whole thing is at a very early stage of development even if it is real.
  2. Thats looking to me like the beginnings of the mother of all head and shoulders!
  3. In the shorter term at least you guys have lost the kind of argument that the ordinary person is going to understand - ie prices to the moon so protect yourself with gold now - so it is only natural that Gold should not be a sought after commodity when stock piles are already hugely in excess of annual use. Further out, we would need to see greater intolerance to being poor, by people who are able to influence the status quo, than is being shown at the moment, to enable the kind of dollar devaluation by spending that will result in prices to the moon. In the current environment and for the forseeable future, prices to the moon in fact remains only some kind of a central bankers dream, where their ability to lower prices is ginormous and their ability to create price rises using the current methodology has being fairly pitiful.
  4. Bill Mcbride at Calculated risk blog is saying FOMC might begin some modest tapering this month. Gold already a bit lower this week. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/09/wednesday-housing-starts-fomc.html Gold still showing a surprising amount of resilience.
  5. The US debt is and will be a significant problem, but the US has made some significant moves in the right direction. We can argue what ifs and maybe for ever and a day and achieve nothing at all. One of my biggest points on this thread is that Gold bugs seem to misunderstand the nature of QE, where in reality there has not been significant money printing since this crisis began and yet talk of money printing has been hysterically hyped for years on end as if something of significance was about to happen. That suggests a clear misunderstanding and therefore reasons why Goldbugs are not thinking about todays problems in a way that is likely to give them the financial success they want. You can see the Goldbug problem from some of the members here where they find it hard to allow their own ideas to be scrutinised without launching into immature rants and I find it hard to see how such behaviour is going to be very rewarding for these people.
  6. You are revealing the way you think. I said: >>We are still stuck in the deflation collapse dynamic that is being prevented by government policy And nowhere have i indicated that Gold is likely to collapse in price back to usd200. It should be fairly clear that knowledge tends to be gained by listening to what the other person says rather than listening to ourselves. What you seem to be saying to me is that you do not believe that QE can be reduced so that the inflationary outcome you are expecting must happen eventually. I really cannot understand the logic for that. QE is there to lower longer term interest rates and get people to move from safety towards risk, If inflation is rising significantly then we can reason there is less reason to encourage risk taking or have lower longer term interest rates. The US economy is still doing fairly badly so there is not much reason to be thinking about ending QE but it can be done if money starts sloshing around again. We are at least seeing the beginning signs of that already. Even if QE ends and is fully unwound there will still be a very exceptionally accomodative zero short term nterest rate policy in the USA.
  7. We are still stuck in the deflation collapse dynamic that is being prevented by government policy There are still years and years left for that to play out, where there are no compellingly easy fixes for the problem. Importantly for the USD price of Gold, the Gold bug community has failed to understand the meaning of QE. The Gold bug community insists on seeing QE as more financial assets added and therefore money devalued and Gold to the moon proportionally. In fact QE is relatively zero sum and only encourages investors to rebalance their portfolios into assets that earn more interest. Most of us were gripped by a mania, where protecting ourselves from inflation created by central bankers was vitally important for our well being. Whereas in reality the central bankers are somewhat impotent to create inflation via QE. Personally i have been very fortunate that when i bought a house in Finland after lehmans went bust, it did actually go up in price. Also i have been fortunate I have now been able to sell my NZ house for much more than seemed possible when the GHPC thugs were beating the crap out of me for me saying that China and world demand for food would protect NZ from big downsides - at least for the time being - where over time there would be some inflation and probably house prices would not fall too much in real terms. Most of the thugs on GHPC have been shown to have been comprehensively wrong from many different directions. In fairness to them, most of them were probably very young when they made many of those statements, whereas i was already relatively old.
  8. Evidently you only want a private club of people who think like you do. Attacking me like you always do only reveals to everybody how narrow minded you are. Gold has a big problem at the moment. There is no big inflationary threat and the deflationary threat is still present. All those who were promising collapse of the dollar and prices to the moon have comprehensively failed to see the future correctly. Attacking me is not going to change that although it might enable you to feel better.
  9. Your way is the way of ignorance. Anybody who does not fall at your feet in admiration gets the thugs treatment Meanwhile your wife probably wishes you had bought a nice property in a nice town in the USA just as you were discussing two years ago Doom did not come about as you expected. You failed and now apparently you think that failure entitles you to respect? Eventually all the failures will withdraw with lessons learnt and the strong hands will be burnt alive
  10. And there was me thinking you went quiet because I told you that you should be buying that nice looking cheap property in a nice looking town in America that your wife was interested in.
  11. How times have changed. Over a week gone by and no comments on the 1511 post GEI gold thread As you recall i have said before that Gold is just a commodity like ammo or sugar or oil. Somebody has to have sufficient wealth that they can afford to buy it and justify holding onto to it when there are other things they need to buy. The fact is we are now all quite a bit older and for sure while Gold has risen hugely in price since around 2008 or whenever it was when i first turned up on this forum after GHPC collapsed, for Gold to rise in price you need to find more people who have a need to buy gold where the number of people buying gold to speculate on a higher price is not likely to be so high in a situation where even while there are huge problems in the world it is not so far getting much worse than it was back in 2008 You guys need some kind of a game changer and I cannot see it around at the moment. Sentiment has to be against you for the time being and without sentiment you are in a bit of trouble since there is a huge oversupply of gold relative to people who need to buy gold to make a living via work
  12. Chinese selling is probably behind some of the falls this week. However i was surprised that the Fed was so upbeat about the prospects of QE entirely ending by 2014 in the context of the current very weak recovery, where QE is itself a big factor behind some of the improvement numbers. So a bit of a double wammy. The market overall was expecting what the Feds said but I dont think the smaller section of the market that holds Gold would have been. I was sure the Feds would tone down market expecations on QE tapering and instead it seems people believe economic conditions are so good that it is better to end QE even if its too early. There appears to be a bit of a disconnect there to me. However fairly clearly inflation is not our current major problem to worry about and it seems to me to be unimaginable that it will be for years to come.
  13. In New Zealand for a while

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