aliveandkicking

oil will be $150 - $200 p/b by middle/end 2010 imo

 

this is the short deflationary part of the current biflationary period

People dont need to use oil like they have been using it. Wood pellets or geothermal for heating is fairly common these days

Anyway there is a recession and repayment of debt. Teenagers wont be running around in circles and dad wont lend the car with petrol in it. Twenty year olds cant afford car insurance

Meanwhile the indebted oil rich countries have to pump regardless of the price and there is a surplus of oil

& if a stranger came to you in a high street & stopped you & said you can buy this £50 for £5, would you ?

& that's even when knowing/recognising the currency

 

of course you wouldn't & neither would I.

Oil almost into the 60's.

50's and below here we come i think

That video was meaningless, I saw it too.

if it was faked using actors then it was without meaning

Otherwise it means that gold is not easily recognisable to people, or is easily passed as real when fake or some such meaning

Central banks see gold as money, if you can't see that then it is because you don't want to.

As far as i knew central banks still settle in gold via the bank of international settlements

But most people on the planet dont see gold as money as far as i can see. Gold is instead like diamonds or pearls.

Most people will not take gold as money because they are unable to know it is gold, just as people are unlikely to take a diamond or a pearl because they cannot know if it is genuine. It is an impractical money unless it is made into recognised coins that can easily be passed to another person.

If you offer me gold and pay for my expenses to melt it down and have it tested we could probably trade however provided i took no risk for whatever happened to your gold while it was tested and i was still due payment regardless of the results of my test.

Which is precisely why they will print like crazy, this action now is the markets asking for more printy.

 

Anyone think we won't see another bailout?

 

Anyone think the politicos in Washington are going to watch their power dribble away?

 

Not a chance, I'll bet Ben and Timmy are arm twisting and scaring the numpties on capitol hill as we speak.

 

I await the politicians response with trepidation.

Washington has more power now because if washington does not act then we will all slide into deflation where debts will destroy businesses individuals communities friend and foe. My city house is going to look a bit silly here without heat and electric light and available food if the utilities and buisiness go bust.

the USA remains the most powerful economy on earth. That is the reality.

People here holding promises from gold money or bullion vault wont get a penny if they go bust or the bullion holders go bust

The world is built on promises

Also reality. All this talk that fiat is 'just promises' is kind of nuts given many of you are promised stuff from other people and you think you are in a better position than others

In deflation, cash rises against value.

 

Consider the inverted triangle. Cash can rise in value against assets and goods. This does not mean that gold can not also rise in value against cash. You could think of gold as super-cash. As the strongest symbol of money it will continue to benefit, in the aggregate, from concerns weighing on national currencies.

 

 

most of us are required to settle our debts in cash. If we have gold we sell gold to get cash

Most of us dont see gold as money. instead it is what a person has if they have money. A person can have debt and money and gold. Upon settlement they might have only debt.

In deflation more people are settling debt than getting new debt.

Therefor the buying power of cash rises. What the banks have is irrelevant unless that is being spent. Maybe it was to get gold to go up. But now?

I don't follow your line of thinking, deflation is better for gold than inflation in real terms. We've been talking about it here for years... It's done, dusted and proven, we moved on. It's a win/win situation whatever happens, when the only alternative is a devalued currency.

You already have said that most if not all people here object to anti gold talk. What you prove here is only going to fit what you already believe

In deflation cash rises in value.

Devaluation will probably come in the final analysis

Meanwhile the dollar could strengthen until next year and beyond due to the nature of fractional reserve banking where everybody is chasing cash rather than debt money

Well said. That's what I like about gold bulls, they won't be pursuaded by weak arguments. It's so clear to me what is happening and it appears it is to you too.

Its got nothing to do with persuading people with an argument.

It is just saying what seems to be true.

Gold bulls often refuse to even attempt to understand the case for a deflationary recession. Apparently such talk only comes from the gubberment agents illuminati and the mentally ill.

Anybody who disagrees is just being troublesome and talking nonesense or is one of the usual suspects etc etc.

a pretty weak argument

That's an interesting statement, as most, if not all members here consider gold to be the ultimate form of money. I don't want to debate the tos and fros of that statement, all that is important is that you know this is the belief of the many and why I consider your statement to be antagonising.

 

The majority here are trying to preserve their wealth, not profit from it.

I was going to edit it later to 'local currency' from 'money' - but left it as it was.

If the ultimate money cannot easily be used to buy some veggies and a pint of beer it appears to have some limitations that most people can recognise when they pop out to get the groceries and dont have time to weigh their Gold with Mr Patel and risk they dont get gold in change due to the difficulties easily telling the difference between coated gold and other stuff which are the same difficulties Mr Patel faces when you ask him to take your gold.

I dont see gold as a very useful practical money. And we dont have to agree.

Maybe its not so much an 'either/or'....

 

It is undoubtedly true that many regular folk are cash poor and are attempting to pay back as much of their debt as much as possible. On the other hand the PTB are flooding the world with credit (cash) in order to counteract the deflationary beast. If they get the timing just right then they just might be able to pull a rabbit from a hat. Knowing human nature, the chances of this is perhaps less than 2%.

 

However what seems to make this situation really different this time is that this is a war of exponential losses (derivatives) versus exponential credit (money printing) growth. I don't think there are any historical parallels to the elemental forces currently in battle. So who knows how this is going to end - just prepare for the fact that both deflationists and inflationists could be right. Well that's the way I'm playing it.

 

Crazy times we live in.

But it seems true fear of deflation drives gold down and inflation drives it up.

Today we have this kind of news in Finland:

Finnish GDP contracts by 7.4 pct yr/yr in November -SF

Finland's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 7.4 per cent year-on-year in November last year, having shrank at a revised rate of 8.6 per cent in October, Statistics Finland said in a statement Friday.

Over in my other home we have this:

Yesterday’s HLFS revealed a spike in NZ’s unemployment rate to 7.3% in Q4, from 6.5% a quarter earlier. It was the highest reading since June 1999. The extent of the move caught everyone by surprise,

How long will it be before this kind of news is replaced by a steady flow of inflationary news and/or booming economic conditions?

It's being fed into the pockets of the bankrupt bankers in profits/bonuses.

 

The rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer, the way it has always been especially during a crisis.

 

Out of interest do you now think the 10 year gold bull is over?

All assets are in a permanent bull market long term due to the nature of our money system.

I cant say what will happen to gold in the next year because i dont know if we get a worsening recession or we do continue with some kind of modest recovery. Neither of those two scenarios would be great for gold but gold must rise in price eventually along with all assets. If Gold goes to Prechters 650 it would still be in a bull market as i understand the definition of bull market. I find it hard to believe it will go back down there.

Maybe you could clarify what a bull market is for me

Why would you post such nonsense on a gold thread unless you're trying to antagonise everyone.

Gold is not some special thing beyond economics

You buy it cheap in order to profit from it later when you need that profit. The time is now for many.

Many people need money more than they need gold

PS. Goldfinger earlier said he had too many prior committments for two months and was unable to buy Gold but added he might risk the anger of his wife and buy some even so.

There is plenty of money, just look at this graph.

 

 

Anyone how ones lots of gold is not short money, they are just short toilet paper

So the feds own documents tell you there is plenty of money?

I dont see plenty of money in the real world though

The gold price is being suppressed so that it doesn't wake everyone up to what is really going on.

 

Wake up!

Alternatively nobody has much use for gold and they are instead repaying debt and attempting to survive a difficult recession where deflationary news seems more powerful than inflationary news

Even Goldfinger is short of money.

You still get a good price for gold and can use the money to buy some veggies or if you are feeling richer a decent bit of meat and a bottle of cheap wine.

they have 2 options wrt the bolded bit A&L.

 

option 1 is buy & hold the thing they say they don't have (so watch what they do rather than what they say springs to mind)

option 2 initiate new legislative laws making the owning of a commodity illegal or impose a huge tax levy against it, thus kill that particular market dead in it's tracks.

 

Just look at this article from Bernanke in 2002:

 

"Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market."

 

remember they plan years in advance.

I see the FED announcing a new huge QE package & buying a massive amount of gold (or perhaps they already have been buying)

 

or option 2 which let's hope they don't go down that route. I don't think they will go the confiscation route becuase they don't have public oipinion now.

 

I must admit though the Rothschilds exiting the gold market in 2004 iirc was a planned move imo, so perhaps it will be the confiscation route.......h'mmmm

Did you know that the Rothschilds have been in the gold market since 1810...

 

food for thought ??

You seem unable to understand that food is more valueable to humans than gold

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM

well we will have to agree to differ then.

 

I am of the belief that one multi-country organisation does exist & is so big & powerful that it creates & runs the agenda for the whole westernised market.

Once you understand & can interpret the top level agenda the rest just starts falling into place. This is done by watching MSM, world government (especially the US though ) politcal statements & policy creation, financial institutions holdings, governing world bodies, IMF, WHO et al & the many websites that capture all this data.

 

edit - let';s leave this one here though as I don't want to take the gold thread off track .9bearing in mind yesterdays postings). These will have to be my last words on this matter msparks but perhaps we can discuss on another thread sometime.

It is pretty obvious the Feds can trade on the knowledge they have by being the markets biggests players. Pretty obvious that the largest speculative positions they dont like can be targetted and destroyed. On the other hand if there are many smaller players all moving with the market there is not so much they can do.

If the potato harvest fails the feds cannot so easily drive down the price of potatos unless there are already large stock piles of potatos.

Gold seems an easy target because so much is stockpiled doing nothing at all while not much is consumed or needed.

1) A COLOSSAL BAILOUT SCHEME FOR LARGE SCALE OUTRIGHT PURCHASES

OF MORTGAGE SECURITIES, FUNDED BY STRAIGHTFORWARD CREATION OF

CURRENCY WHICH WILL IGNITE A DEADLY HYPERINFLATIONARY PRICE SPIRAL

IN VIRTUALLY EVERY COMMODITY ON THE PLANET AND SKYROCKETING LONG

TERM BOND YIELDS WHICH WILL FURTHER COMPOUND DERIVATIVE LOSSES

WORLDWIDE

Cgnao seems to have an impressive ability to predict the future and yet appears totally wrong

there are massive deflationary forces around the world.

There are no massive inflationary forces at work at the moment other than lower interest rates and plenty of money in the banks.

There is no possibility of a hyperinflationary price spiral getting out of control while deflationary forces are so massive and CB's are relatively impotent to reverse that until sentiment changes

Looking like euro problems are going to take the euro back to the lows of post lehmans with gold doing something similar

Euro 1.25 Gold 880?

Phew this is quite a ride! WTF is going on!?

Economics in action?

People have bought things they dont need in the hope they will rise in price based on the idea that things only rise in price

100% guaranteed.

 

Gold could consolidate to a 3 digit price yet. All good for the long term imo.

 

 

And lets hope that Prechter is just some nutter on the internet

Because people who use credit will always outbid those who don't, until those who don't use credit are unable to access certain products services or assets unless they too use credit.

 

"Debt is slavery of the free"

Debt is slavery sounds fairly religious

Debt can be very empowering if it means you have at your disposal the power of your lifes work right now in front of you to do work far faster than you ever could without debt

It is an opportunity or a curse.

Correct, which is why I didn't say it

Why do people have to be in debt??

Surely it is more correct to say that it is a pity that people chose to be in debt when it does not assist them in their lives?

Why is it that people cant take responsibility and it is somebody elses fault that they have to be in debt?

Nah, you've got completely the wrong end of the stick, I believe house prices should be much much lower it's the people I was telling with a VI for high house prices who thought I was a pessimist.

 

Imagine what kind of life we could all have if we didn't have to pay bankers rent to live on our island we could all start small businesses spend more time with our family.

It is not possible to have things for nothing though.

1. Where will the money come from to pay for your products?

2. Running your own buisiness can mean that being at home is like being at work

3. Bankers provide a service as their buisiness. Like plumbers provide a service. If the money fails or the water fails we tend to call out the army and so forth. Granted their are degrees of insanity and horribleness between plumbing failing and money failing

4. Most people buying expensive houses think they can prosper and live comfortably in retirement and spend more time with their family

5. Successful none self employed people can spend time with their familes

6. If you spend too much time with your family you want to spend less time with your family

7. We are all living in a benefit culture one way or another where we believe we get something for nothing - or that is how we think it works deep down psychologically

If you want to run your own buisiness then do it and avoid blaming others for where you are at the moment. Just do it.

Let's see if this one holds.

 

Silvers fortunes are probably tied to coppers.

Nice try at infering I am and others are trolls.

 

Fact is I personally have never advocated a gold standard I'm not even a gold bug but rather a father with two small children and a worry about the resources they will be left with and the debts they will be left with.

 

Paper claims on the future have brought forward consumption and have wasted vast resources on the misalocation of capital that my children will have to deal with.

 

A sound money system could be created from fiat money if there was total transparency and adequate laws but as history shows us no politicians can be trusted and the popularity contest always wins out as is the nature of democracy.

 

We will end up with a gold standard eventually as we simply cannot trust ourselves as a society.

 

If only the paper printers truly understood what havoc they have brought on the future.

I just had a child and it does seem to create an instinct to be concerned for their future maybe?

But I dont see how you can escape the simple fact that there are too many children on earth for the available resources.

Fiat also i think enabled consumption and child birth and excesses in all things.

Meanwhile i am assuming my child will be able to have a happy life, because it appears true that all we need worry about is that there is an excess of savings and a reluctance to spend now because of fears of what might be.

Focusing on debt alone is myopic because further away are piles of excess savings in abundance