carbon junkie

Looks like a re-run of the Japanese show to me... with the West exporting its inflation to the East this time. The question remains as to whether the export-driven Asian economies can soak up the liquidity and continue their hyper-growth.....now that the GDP of western economies is contracting. Or will they pop.

It's like a rerun, but this time the game is far more deadly.

US is doing all it can to break the Yuan Dollar peg devaluing the dollar brings a tidal wave of inflation to Asia (if they continue the peg!).

The pop will be the end of the pegs hyper for the West deflation for Asia.

In the meantime Japan is about to pick up the bill for the last twenty years.

Lots of fun to come!!

Is gold still a dollar story? Dollar looking strong today and gold down a little. Will be interesting to see how much the dollar can strengthen without some dramatic and pivotal event to push it up.

Aahh, now you are beginning to think straight.

Dollar index is a paper index not much use anymore for predicting gold over an extended time period.

Another dissapointing afternoon for the paper bugs

Exciting start in US Novagold down nearly 9% on opening - but you gotta be quick with these bargains now only down 5% but still higher than last week.

PM stocks seem quite resilient for anyone hoping for a bargain.

Love it!

OK gold price in context!

currently $1139/oz week 50

That is still roughly a gain of 10% from week 45 even taking in to account the last couple of horror days LOL!

If Gold were to fall by another 10% or so it would still be back where it was some two months ago.

Seems like a good investment to me.

Dose anyone know of any bull markets that have never had a correction.?

I must confess I don't.

The facts clearly favour the bulls at this stage so the paper lovers should be a little more humble at this stage (one swallow does not a summer make).

RH

 

As a moderator with an interest in deflation it would be helpful i think if you could ask people to consider that the money supply is not some abstract set of numbers but is rather our money supply.

 

When a bank has a huge pile of borrowed money from a government that is not spent that sits in an account as a number i dont think we can say this is truelly part of our money supply.

 

There seems therefore a clear difference.

 

there is our spending money and there is the governments money that they want us to spend that belongs to them or is controlled by them.

 

Endlessly this board wants to say the governments money is inflation as if this difference is absolutely irrelevant.

 

We need moderators or somebody to deal with this.

 

Infortunately as i said earlier moderator Goldfinger has declared it is irrational to say that deflation is possible

 

An almost impossible position on a board if people do want to discuss rather than ramp their chosen positions

 

And apparently an active group on this board seems to think that leadership on the board is something to be mocked and attacked

 

Is there a way forwards??

Mods can you move this post as I think it really should have been posted on the "I love papaer thread".

I can't believe for one moment that they would have meant to post this on a gold thread.

Ta in anticipation!!

Wow!

What a clear statement of complacency!

(Nothing personal in this, but I think this is very dangerous thinking.)

There may be a huge, huge volume of hedgie selling in the days to come.

The ocean may be pushing through the straw in the opposite direction.

Wishfull thinking.

Do you have any stats to back up what % of total hedge fund investments are in gold? or what % of gold is held by hedge funds?

I presume you would know this info.

Do hedge funds not hedge their positions anymore?

It is to the benefit of the Fed to have a higher gold price.

Anyway nice to see you back. LOL

Ummm... what's going on in the real world?

 

Hyperinflation is nice in theory but does not cut it in the real world [which is there by the way to substantiate or repudiate theory]. This is because money primarily has a practical basis and not a theoretical one. We were all told when growing up that money makes the world go round, that money moves the world. But this hard-headed abstract maxim is being falsified before our eyes… money is not moving. Why? Because the exact opposite is nearer the truth, that the world makes money go round, that the basis of money is practical. It can never be analyzed in isolation in a set of theorems, but rather has to be observed within concrete circumstances. This is what muddle-headed monetarists have got so wrong. It is the same mistake the quants made. They were so obsessed with the elegance, beauty and certainty of their a priori principles and rational models, that they allowed those theories and models to become reality. Of course, this is the very definition of madness, when the figment of your imagination supplants reality. The reality was that the madness of the quants led to an economic ruin still playing out today.

 

When you consider and observe the way in which money behaves in the real world, it is absurd to think hyper-inflation could happen to the central reserve currency. What I am more interested in is why hyper-inflationists cling to this belief. Perhaps the basis of hyper-inflation lies in the enthusiastic imagination of its adherents. Clear and distinct ideas are provided by authoritative figures. The ideas are easily understood along the lines of mathematical theorems. The ideas are essentially simple and not complex proceeding along axiomatic lines and generally agreeable to the more rationalist and mathematically minded. They provide certainty and a guaranteed eventual outcome in an uncertain world. The real world may fly in the face of hyper-inflation, but this is of no consequence as an eventual hyper-inflation is as certain as the second coming. This makes hyper-inflation more of a world-view or a faith than a provisionally held theory which would be open to being falsified.

 

 

Beyond the hype of hyper-inflationary theory, gold can be bought as a sound currency and a hedge against uncertainty.

No offence but that's a load of patronising waffle.

Especially as history says you are just plain wrong.

Maybe Bubb has a repeating pattern of getting out too early? He got out of UK property in 2001, 3 years before the property peak in gold and 6 years before the nominal peak. If he does the same with gold, he might lose out on another 500% gain or so.

Yup, he is the captain of the good ship miss-timing.

He also sulks really badly and dissapears when things aren't going his way and as soon as it is going his way he is backing crowing like a rather obnoxious so and so.

Not the style of a gentleman.

No,

they want the USD and the GBP to depreciate in a controlled manner. Both are about 25-30% down from their longer term levels, and I think there needs to be the same fall yet again over the next few years to give these nations a fighting chance of paying off their debt. Any short term bounce in the USD is a consequence of increasing risk aversion.

 

Instead,

the PPT probably wants gold to fall in value from its current levels. From USD 950 to USD 1050 the rise in gold was just a reflection of the falling dollar (as I kept pointing out, the same was happening for oil). But from USD 1050 to USD 1150 the rise in gold has been a genuine rise in PMs, whilst oil has been stable or falling. Today seems like a deliberate smack down in gold and oil, and not a rise in the dollar. If the dollar rises in parallel, that will just help the PPT in the attack on PoG.

Aah PPT conspiracy, they want to drive down the price of gold so the Chindians can buy it cheap?

[sarcasm on]

Maybe Timmy and Bernanke had a plan all along? Maybe they were just pretending to bail out all their mates?

 

The money will be burnt and no-one will be wiser?

[/sarcasm off]

 

 

Now look at the ECB, when you Trichet talk about price stability and ensuring that the wealth of millions of people is maintained. If you had to believe in one peice of paper over another which one would you choose?

 

I vote gold though...time will come when people will want to see how much gold, silver or even tungsten you have, before any deals are done.

 

The paperbugs are finished.

LOL

Gold backed credit. Just like the old days.

the PPT are now choosing today to start their fight back. They've even taken a big chunk out of the oil price early this morning. I suspect we'll see even stronger downward pressure when the Yanks wake up.

They want a strong Dollar now do they? Why?

While there's cause for a price fall, I'm much less worried about it this time than previous - maybe because I've been accumulating for >18 months now.

 

As has been said, nothing goes up in a straight line. In fact, it's par for the course to have a dip on the leg up.

 

Think of this as a lochan halfway up a mountain. Somewhere to take in the view, consider the path that's been taken so far, and the remainder of the climb ahead

 

Yes, even when you are climbing up a mountain there are times when you have to descend for a while.

The trend is your friend.

the weak holders wont be clawing the sky they will be phoning Jim Sinclair

 

the ones that understand the cycles will be buying more

buying and holding (for the long term) on the dips - happy days.

No clawing the ceilings more like an early christmas present.

I am dissapointed it hasn't fallen further up or down in the short term is of little consequence it's just noise.

Gold now: $1,172.

Some bulls here may find themselves "Clawing the sky"

 

I do have some puts on Gold stocks, and lightened up on my GLD call spread in recent days.

But I cannot really claim to be short Gold. The fall could be sharp and scary, as I said yesterday.

Gold now $1146.

STILL HIGHER THAN THE START OF LAST WEEK!!

Hardly a reason to be clawing the sky.

Move along nothing to see here!!!

Wake me up when something out of the ordinary happens.

I have read many posts on the subject of SHTF use of silver and gold in daily transactions for groceries etc. IMO it will not happen. Of course there are many types of SHTF but short of a true Mad max scenario, government fiat will be issued and used - even if it loses half of its purchasing power every week. We have many recent examples of currency collapse and people's behavior is similar in all cases.

What happened in Zimbabwe? I thought they used gold for grocery purchases.

It's the most recent currency collapse and the behaviour was different and it never went Mad Max.

I think you may be wrong on this.

Hi all this is my first post - long time lurker.

I decided last weekend to have a look at ebay to see what was selling I personally think it may be a great place to see any hyperinflation in action its very liquid.

Went through many sectors and almost nothing was selling until I got to the antique silver section - hallmarked georgian vistorian stuff to my amazement nearly everything and I mean nearly everything was selling many bids on each items this is true for both UK AND US.

Does anyone here have any experince in antique silver for example where is the demand coming from? I think it may be a way to buy silver without paying VAT.

Is there or will there be a demand in the future for UK hallmarked antique silver (the standard of craftmanship for these items is very high and a modern version would cost a fortune) in India and China in the future?

Anyone have any thoughts it would be greatly appreciated.