carbon junkie

Crashman Begins posesses absolutely no bullion paper or physical.

Any comments made regarding possession / investing are purely speculation / peer pressure.. and are weak attempt to keep up with the Jones's / seem cool

Or was it a boating accident, where you accidentaly dropped your stash in a very deep lake.

Its so annoying, I know I've done it myself.

I remember Steve Netwriter hammering away at the importance of using log. The irony is that the log chart has so far perfectly supported my central thesis.... that gold will strengthen slowly against the dollar, and the dollar will not explode. But we are going in circles here.

That'll be a no then.

Yes, excellent point. I soon saw the errors of my ways.

But have you done it gracefully?

What I see is this. There has been recent euphoria on this thread, it seems to be in the process of evaporating, leaving a void. Romans holiday may well be proved correct here with his dollar views and that it why I think he is the current target.

The Fed stands ready to increase its quantative easing should market conditions prevail.

This is not 2008 NIRP and QE will see to that.

This is just a bit of G20 bullsh*t manipulation.

People are rarely targets because they might be right at some point in the future they are usually targets because they are spectacularly wrong in the present.

Here is an example of how using a linear chart can give a false signal. A good year or so back when gold rose quickly to 1100 or so, it looked to me it could easily correct back to the 3 digit range on the [false] trend line:

 

It wasn't long after I became convinced of the importance of using a log chart. Through the course of this year gold has tracked closely to this long term trend, and accordingly I haven't been "bearish". Looking at the log chart now, it is starting to look over stretched.

You always used to post linear charts until me and others pulled you up on it some time ago.

Good to see you've taken the advice.

But obviously a few cages have been rattled at the same time. Is that such a bad thing?

Seems to be more acceptable if its a moderator doing the rattling.

$1,418 correction over?

They ain't like they used to be.

Expecting a smackdown of course.

Armstrong says over $1440 and its a new trendline.

Sinclair said $1,650

We are starting to get to the meat of this now!

That's not very nice. Who's "everyone else"? Probably a few sharing your small world view no doubt.

I am afraid I take Pixels track record over yours anyday.

You seem to be totally impervious to the growing iritation many of your replies have.

I don't actually think you listen to any other posters.

Its a fault on your part IMO.

Pixel got a 2-day break for foul language. Please everyone, watch your language. I know that these abbreviations come in handy, and I like to use "FFS" every now and then, but language directed at other posters should meet a minimum of politeness no matter how heated the factual discussion.

I'm with Pixel, it doesn't matter how acurate some posters are on this site there are others who are infuriating with their continued lack of grace in the face of being wrong for months and months on end.

I think you should reinstate Pixel and give him/her a bit more leeway as IMO the response given to Pixel was very ungracious in view of the accuracy of Pixels chart.

IMO Pixel has given a great deal more to this site than the poster to whom the quote was directed.

IMO there are some on this site who need to stop lecturing and start listening to those with a proven track record of being acurate.

I might also like to point out that it seems to me that a lot of the posters on this site are British but many of the mods are not - I think its an over reaction in many cases as the language is lost in translation.

We do actually swear quite a lot in the UK its is part of our cultural makeup. Now for example if you go across to the North American sites there is virtually no swearing its all hugs and kisses and annoying little smiley blinking icon type things that most Brits would never use. In fact I know it really annoys many UK posters but that is life.

I think a lot of the banning these days is merely a cultural misunderstanding.

$950 coming!

 

Finally!

LOL.

See what happens when people post rockets - its the same everytime

Well, there's always the chance of getting cheap miners on a pullback.

Coming up, I suspect.

Probably won't last too long but its due.

Arian Silver AGQ is one you could look at.

Up 12% today

Beware money illusion. For all you know, you could only be sitting on momentary "paper gains" which can easily reverse for a period. Because rapidly rising prices can quickly retrace in a volatile and unstable market, I prefer gold to silver/ stocks.

 

A hedge is a hedge. It is not about maximizing "profits", but minimizing risk. US dollars are good to sit on in case markets crash.... at which point you'd put them to work. Simple as that really. If you wanted to increase the dollar hedge, you could trade against volatility if you chose. But the essential factor, considering it's your hedge, is not to lose/ risk dollars.

 

Liquidity in diverse currencies is the best way to spread your risk. My dollar hedge is in the context of a large bullion holding:

 

Gold 50%

Silver 10%

Dollars 40%

 

On a reversal, should it come, I doubt gold would be hit much. Other stuff though could be a lot cheaper in terms of dollars.

You know you really ought to rethink your strategy with respect to USD and miners.

You seem to be stuck with your strategy and thats it.

Seems odd to me to be still promoting this strategy with where we are now.

Hey ho.

Pixel8r

 

Can you let me know the names of the UK silver mining shares you are invested in as I would like to put some in an ISA and you can't put in US stocks?

 

I purchased HOC heavily back in July just because they were the only one I could find so am aware of that one. Funnily enough that has since gone up 70%! but that was as much luck as judgement as I knew it was a good time to buy based on silver falling below 200dma but had no idea of the prospects of the individual company.

Arian Silver AGQ is one you could look at.

Can you invest in Canadian stocks?

One I think people should look at is Pinetree Capital (Toronto) PNP.TO they are invested heavily in some 400 g&s explorers and hold a huge ammounts of warrants in these companies.

Do your own due dilligence of course.

Miners have been great for the last year, but we still need to remember that they are still lagging heavily the bullion prices. I think we should see them outperform bullion again over the coming year. I have made big profits from miners, but feel reluctant to take profits in them as would be unsure as to where to keep it.

 

I did take some profit but used it to buy myself a new camera (Hasselblad H4D-50), which is a much more productive asset than leaving it in any fiat currency.

Agreed totally!

I have my core position that is going nowhere for at least a year, but I also spread bet here in the UK and make a tidy amount on the dollar value in pounds

I sleep better at night having some insurance but as the miners surge and my positions become more secure I seem to sleep even better!

Great days these.

US dollars would be a better hedge.

Not really, the idea is to use a USD instrument to generate USD on any downside. Just holding USD doesn't fulfill this scenario at all.

I don't find just holding USD as a very atractive strategy especially as those USD should have been invested in miners months back as me and others were shouting to anyone who could hear at the time.

I remember being banned at that point but me and others were right. Some of us are sitting on 100% gains and would rather lighten up a little profit for some protection than sit there wallowing in a pile of USD doinf absolutely nothing.

Nope USD is no hedge whatsoever.

You'll get killed holding that for any length of time

 

VXX Marches Towards Zero, Is VIX Heading Back to 25?

 

 

Why VXX Is a Bad Play

 

 

 

Early Performance Indicates VXX Is a Horrible Volatility Product

 

 

 

But don't take my word for it

 

I suspect that VXX is the equivalent of UNG for natural gas. UNG is basically a vehicle to extract as many $$$ out of unsuspecting retail traders as possible who simply do not understand how it works.

 

The following chart tells you all you need to know, it is VXX divided by the actual VIX, the ratio of VXX to VIX over time, it's going lower - fast

 

 

It's a very expensive way to hedge

mmm food for thought thanks for the info.

My VXX position was bought initially with a nice win on a VIX spreadbet during the flash crash it is about 3% of my portfolio and diminishing rapidly so I don't lose too much sleep.

Have you any other suggestions TBT is something I have been thinking of but its obviously not the same trade.

I expect Bernake to trash the dollar but just in case I wanted a nice dollar earner to then convert in to more miners!

Thanks for the info.

A family member has asked if buying a small position in the vix (VXX) would be a good way of protecting their long position in Silver Wheaton. Any thoughts?

I do hold some VXX as a hedge against my miners.

I'm in the UK and so if we do have an almighty crash it will be a dollar printing machine as the pound gets taken to the cleaners and everyone rushes for dollars but, I know many who don't like it.

During the flash crash it shot up so I'm reasonably confident it will stand the test, however there is a carry cost involved.

I treat it like insurance hope its a waste of money but if I need it it will be there.

As miners go up I buy little tranches in VXX and hope I never have to use it.

Miners are turbo charged at the mo, but still way undervalued compared to G&S.

For any of those with too much paper.

Happy days these

For cr@p's sake, will it ever stop??

 

I wanted to buy some soon!!

Never seen you worry so much about the value of paper before

Seriously though, I reckon a big spike up next couple of months and then back down to where we are now in the summer, before the big one in a year or so.

So in the grand scheme of things it makes no odds unless everything goes completely mad max.

Will you sleep safely with all that paper though?

Double top?

 

If one looks at the gold chart in USD, GBP and many other currencies there have been "double tops" all over this past decade. The "double tops" will continue as gold sets new highs, retraces, goes back to the recent high, and then beyond.

 

That chart also looks like a cup-and-handle; and the cup-and-handle interpretation is supported by the fundamentals of monetary debasement.

+1

WHERE is my cheap gold now??

 

EDIT: People promised me bubble tops, double tops, seasonal tops, sell-offs, you name. I say: WHERE is my cheap gold!? I want it NOW!

They seem to have a history of being wrong but it doesn't stop them predicting.

BTW as if you didn't know it is still really cheap.

It does feel like a seminal moment; that you might think back to this day as the tipping point when Chinese fiscal policy dragged the dollar up relative to all else...(due to the unmaintainable 'peg', which will inevitably fail)...

Hasn't China just blinked? The peg is beginning to cause iintolerable internal inflation.

Ben gets the chance to print even more now and force Chinese inflation up still further.

The peg will as you say ultimately fail.

Interesting times indeed.

$1770? When is that booked in for?

 

Are we all assuming that the parabolic move in gold will be largely as a result of dollar devaluation rather than anything else?

 

With a move to $1650 and GBP/USD at $1.85 that is a sterling price of £891, so nothing spectacular in sterling terms.

 

Is it still a buy (physical) though with sterling cash? or better to use a USD account and load up at bullion vault? or just short the USD?

Been spread betting US miners in the UK for well over a year dollar devaluation priced in pounds its been great. Reckon I've got a few months left and then it'll be time to change strategy at the end of this move.

Thinking a big chunk of VXX something like that to generate USD as the pound collapses and gold retraces. Then rinse and repeat is the plan.

I too am expecting $1.80 ish before parity.

Point & Figure chart for silver shows a double top breakout with a bullish target of $29