carbon junkie

If you like my SILVER bottom you should see my crystal balls.

 

I've shown you a chart which shows gold goes up when IR's rise, heading towards positive real interest rates, but you failed to reply.

Cheers, you saved me from myth busting it appears you have already tried your best. .

Is there any major support for over a hundred dollars once this support fails?

Yes.

Boing its that time of the day. NIce to see a re-test - will it hold?

Still got the 1260 ish previous resistance in mind.

Could we see $12,500 Dow and $1,250 Gold intraday? a quick spike back to 10:1

The Dow is looking expensive priced in gold (of course in FRNs thats another story )

Any glimpse of the 10:1 ratio would be an amazing buying op as the Dow should start to collapse after that (in real money terms).

HUI LOOKS SWEET!!

Still sat in my core mining position bought some GDX this afternoon.

Thanks for chart.

I agree with you. My own nagging fear is that Prechter is right and we will grind to a bottom in 2016: 'the buying opportunity of a lifetime'' for those with any cash at that point.

Prechter 'if everything goes my way we will be moving from (dollar) cash to gold at the bottom''.

Not a hope in hell, Prechter is a fool who measures USD as though they were still backed by gold its a nonsense.

The USD is a shadow of its former self its a devalued worth less scrap of paper that has been debased for decades but apparently a limitless amount of toilet paper is going to be worth more than gold which is hoarded getting harder to find and has only been growing at around 2% p.a. for a hundred years.

I've given the miners a pass for a couple of reasons:

 

1) The miner stock price is 'up', measured in dollars or pounds, but what does that really mean? Isn't the currency its measured in depreciating as well, since the underlying asset is becoming more valuable?

2) The volatility will become insane - who has the metaphorical cajones to buy and hold through those wild correction? Only those with nerves of steel.

 

I think the only way you can win this game is to trade the miners (long and short), take the 'profits' and buy physical gold and silver. Steward Thompson says something to that effect. When the whole system blows up, you will still be holding a 'claim' to metal in the ground rather than the actual thing. Stocks are still derivatives (albeit derivatives which are closer to the real uderlying thing than say CDS). Will the companies and the exchanges follow the rule of law in a crisis? Who know? If what many are predicting actually comes true then any form of paper will ultimately become worthless.

 

Personally, I would have farmland over the GDX anyday. But that's just me.

GDX is cheap in relation to farmland in the UK, but yes you must have an exit strategy.

Stocks always maintain some value they have never dissapeared in Argentina, Zimbabwe or the Weimar these stocks never became worthless inspite of the fact that they never mined pure money out the ground (like my goldstocks!) and in many cases did things that were far less profitable.

One should enjoy the volatility of these miners as its this thats going to make them a stellar investment going forwards.

Average in and don't chase the price it will invaribly come back to you at some point.

The mean price I paid for GDX is 44$, so I am still ahead after this correction.

 

It is stated that miners provide a leverage to the gold price. However, I see them underperforming.

OK, if someone had bought on October 2008, it would be a different story. Who could have foreseen

that onslaught? The main point is, perhaps producers can not replenish their reserves and this is the reason that they underperform the gold price. So, unless someone has Dr Bubb's trading abilities, perhaps the mining sector

should be avoided.

Take a look at the gyrations of tech stocks thru the Nasdaq bubble - it's not for the faint hearted I'll grant you but Im sure GDX will be way up in a years time - no idea about next week though!

Is GDX a good investment for buy and hold ordinary investors?

 

I am not so sure. Still trading at March 2008 levels.

 

Gold payed off immediately. Silver after a long 5 year wait. But GDX ? A waste of time.

The miners are more volatile and yes they are still cheap relative to the underlying metal inspite of two stellar years.

If you are bullish on gold then these represent a good opportunity IMO.

Of course they aren't everyones cup of tea but thats more to do with the paper nature in general.

There are of course many ways to play this bull but you can only win it if you are in it.

Any time I get another gold related buy or sell signal I'll post it here, what are the main gold stocks I should be looking out for? I don't want a huge list just the key ones.

I would like to suggest GDX and GDXJ my reason being they cover a large no. of underlying stocks and they probably represent a lower risk way of plAying the market for the many newbies who will soon be trying to pile in to the great Golden Bull.

I think the banks and financial institutions will start to become big buyers of these indexes as they want to gain exposure to these miners but not a control or dominance of any one stock so these sorts of vehicles will suit them fine.

Great work BTW.

IMO, not until REAL interest rates are positive by at least 2% (real=accounting for inflation)..

 

Even then, they'd have to pull a Volker-style shift to convince me.

True, but as I am sure you realise we can't do a Volker this time - too much debt.

IMO gold will only really start to accelerate in price when interest rates start to rise. Simply because CBs are always the last to spot inflation and always raise rates long after the geenie is out of the bottle.

When the Fed raises rates we will know inflation is running riot. Can't wait to see Ben raise rates myself.

It was always my road. You guys just like to ridicule anybody who dares interfer with your fantasies of instant gratification and certain doom to your advantage.

If it talks like a deflationista and walks like a deflationists then it probably is a deflationista.

Having read your replies I noticed the doom gloom fantasy hyper comments (very unhelpful unless you want to have an argument rather than a debate) and noticed you clearly have no idea of my standpoint as you always spend too much time arguing with so many here and too little time learning - twas ever thus.

Cheers Paul we will leave it there.

edited

I am in inflationist.

When did you take the road to Damascus?

Should I call you Saul or Paul?

So you keep saying. Apparently hyperinflation will arrive by June 2008

The money supply (inflation therof) has increased deramatically. Prices though which I think is where you get confused will always and have always lagged a growth in the money supply - inflation.

Show me one instance where a dramatic increase in the money supply has created an instantaneous increase in prices - don't bother because it has never happened it never will as it takes time.

Deflationists still barking up the wrong tree and always wanting instant gratification with respect to prices.

Sorry guys, no apologies, gold is second best to test cricket

Absolutely, I hope Gold performs better than those useless Aussies. Shame it had to end down under!

3-1 to the Engerland and well done the barmy army.

I think this post demonstrates that philosophy is not a ten minute per day hobby.

 

Philosophy is not "wobbling," it's reasoned argument; it requires a lot of work and a lot of time, which is something Gen-Y may not be well prepared for.

When this forum is renamed Global Philosophy Forum you may have a point.

"Waffle" performs an important function. Unless we waffle from time to time, then we will take our ideas too seriously.... and what we think is knowledge soon becomes dogma. Where's the freedom of thought in that?

 

Anyway this is way off the topic of gold.... though much waffling could and needs to be done about gold.

Failure to address any of my points as per usual.

Waffle only serves a function to the waffler if the recipient does not understand it then the waffle is meaningless.

Please don't bother responding as I agree it is way off topic and I don't see you accomodating other points of view or responding to specific points.

but enough waffling.

Now you are getting the point.

TBH I think only you understand your posts if others don't understand them like I said then you are failing as a communicator.

So its no good blaming me for not understanding waffle.

I concur with GF waffle and excessive charting reiteration of ones position or successes simply covers up for a lack of knowledge and understanding.

I think GF has summed up a fair amount of what happens here on this forum.

You've obviously missed the point then. Shall I spell it out.

 

What seems to have come into disrepute today, namely, philosophy [or what some derisively call waffling] is no more than human thought. It's also been termed enlightened scepticism, which sees through all the pretensions and figments of that species of the imagination known as the intellect. The "laws of nature", that supposedly rule our world, are just such figments.... useful hypotheses, but not to be taken too seriously. It's naive in the extreme to believe these laws of our making actually exist, as if we can project them onto reality... but then I guess one has to believe in something as [human] nature abhors a vacuum.

you can't help your self can you!

I haven't missed Goldfingers point as he put it so succinctly!

I am not even sure what your point is. Which is my point - if you get my point!

An abstraction. The world of markets and economies are "ruled" by the vagaries of human nature [not philosophy, ideology, or science].

 

Losing sight of this can lead to all sorts of deterministic errors... such as assuming prices will move mechanically one way.

 

An internet forum should be a space for thought, not edification. Philosophy is just thought, and teaches people to doubt bad thinking and bad faith. Most people seem to want to believe today rather than exercize critical and rational thought. I think laziness may be involved here.

Your post sums up Goldfingers point perfectly. Well done!

*Often people who lack a natural sciences background tend to such. It's understandable: if you don't understand the basic laws of the world and if you lack the ability to describe them in a concise manner (in particular: maths), you better write/talk a lot to hide this fact. Prime examples: lawyers, psychologists, "softer" MBA types, and, yes, also philosophers.

Yes, this is very true.

Gold has been flatlining over the past 1.5 days.

 

Is something brewing?

IMO gold is holding up better than the Greek crisis of a year ago.

Don't think people will fall for the same trick again

I'll let George explain it better.

From:

and the rise would have to be so substantial that the Western world would pretty much collapse instantly.

Exactly, which is why it isn't going to happen until the USD is fairly valued against gold and the Federal reserve is once again "solvent".

Then they can have a Volcker moment.

I think Obama having Volcker in his team is a classic, as its spooked the gold holders who don't understand history.

“People who are selling gold here are making a big mistake,” said Michael Pento, a senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital Inc. in New York who correctly predicted gold’s highs the past two years. “The gold bull market will end when real interest rates become positive and we’re very far away from that. The Fed believes it’s going to have to print more money to keep real interest rates from rising and rescue the economy.”

At least this guy knows why he is holding gold.

Seems some on here think real interest rates are magically going positive sometime soon.

Or they think its 1974 again which of course it isn't.

The Fed stands ready to increase its quantative easing and it will.

Bernanke will keep real rates negative.

Correction over.

1000 Euro is now support.

Its not a bull till its a bull in Euros and GBP. Is that your thinking? So still lots of room for a run up.