Dispassion

can someone tell me why congress delays bailout approval ? Is there anything else they can do ? no, right?

They will approve a bail out of the financials otherwise the state will collapse. The terms under this happens will be the greatest change in US politics for decades, so as you can imagine every congressman wants to use the opportunity to achieve their political objectives and are prepared to let the global economy suffer in a game a political chicken. The most apathetic about the plight of humanity will win, since the others will reach a state of desperation quicker.

D-Day has arrived! GS is only 627 contracts net short on TOCOM. We must be very close to a gold price explosion. They will probably want to get on the long side if they can but they have eliminated their exposure at least on the TOCOM. It is probably a matter of days, not weeks, months or years.

Cheers

Adrian

 

Bill,

ANOTHER NEW RECORD LOW GOLD SHORT POSITION IS ACHIEVED BY GOLDMAN SACHS ON TOCOM

 

In the September 24 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED 405 short contracts and bought 704 long contracts to bring their long position to 1,889 contracts and their net short position to 627 contracts. YES, THAT IS SIX HUNDRED AND TWENTY SEVEN CONTRACTS NET SHORT! This is the lowest net short position that Goldman Sachs has ever held in the 33 months that I have been keeping data.

 

Make no mistake about it THIS IS IT. We are within days of gold exploding. It is a time to forget about trading to make a few bucks and instead be properly positioned for lift off.

 

 

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=19374

who's the actual source for this?

just supposing that this deal does not go through - I agree with others here that we are looking at some volatility in the pog for a short while but it's safe haven status should prevail.

 

I will be quite happy to see the pog go down (albeit temporarily ) if it coincided with some of the sh1tbags that benefit from their own personal freebie toxic debt for cash exchange programme having to realize their losses (as well as many of their market fixing manipulative methods). Here's hoping.

It's too late for that, they've probably stashed many years of dispropotionate annual city bonuses in gold. The free markets determined that these were fair bonuses because they were seen to be very sucessfully performing critical roles in the economy.

The policies of politicians have failed not the "free market". This mess has been caused primarily by Greenspans incredibly stupid monetary policy of setting the price of money too low. This in turn over-inflated the housing market. They have been literally living on borrowed time and should have taken the recessionary medicine years ago. If the markets had been left to price money, as Ron Paul suggests, we would never have had such a debacle.

 

The more they interfer and attempt to reflate the housing market, which is essentially price-fixing, the worse the end result.

If anyone's still in any doubt that the free markets have failed check out this definition of market failure, I'm sure you'll recognise some familar concepts, of particular interest is the definition of moral hazard:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics#Market_failure

What is the alternative? Socialism?

 

Even though I would not consider myself a purist libertarian, I go with Ron Paul on this one.

Solialism is the moral aspect of statism and if the state is to take on massive amounts of failed private debt then it is inveitably a move towards statism.

http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2008/cr092408h.htm

Although Ron Paul is very right to be concerned, I've not seen him present an alternative and any alternative is necessairily interventionist anyway, unless we're talking about liquidating all companies and individuals with debt that they can't immediately repay. Only a sadist or someone who can't accpet that free markets fail, could propose this.

The policies of politicians have failed not the "free market". This mess has been caused primarily by Greenspans incredibly stupid monetary policy of setting the price of money too low. This in turn over-inflated the housing market. They have been literally living on borrowed time and should have taken the recessionary medicine years ago. If the markets had been left to price money, as Ron Paul suggests, we would never have had such a debacle.

 

The more they interfer and attempt to reflate the housing market, which is essentially price-fixing, the worse the end result.

Regardless of the factors contributing to the failure of the free markets, the free markets have failed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_failure

Are you advocating bankruptcy for all banks, companies and individuals with a negative balance? If not, how do you expect them to survive without intervention?

Is that really so terrible?

 

There is more to life than productivity. That is something you would hear from Bolcheviks.... hmmm... or economists.

 

A crash may bring about a more salubrious society where people would live within their means... and know their needs instead of their wants.

If it's a controlled decrease in productivity, then problem isn't as large, but this requires intervention, which is what you argue is counter productive.

If it's a massive decrease in productivity due to a failure of the global financial system then it's time to think about which 'necessities' you're prepared to do without and what this means for people who don't have the 'necessities' already.

The point is, the free markets have failed, they can't fix themselves or the problems they've caused, it requires people to fix the problem now and this, inevitably, means larger states, or standards of living will seriously suffer.

Not at all. Reality is biting... we have been living in a bubble world as surely as poor Truman Burbank.

 

This thing is out of control. No-one fixes it... the more they try the worse it will become. It is medicine taking time.

 

 

Edit: Oh wait.... is it too late for Ron Paul to be president?

He will make us take the medicine.

It much worse than that, it really needs fixing. If no one tries to fix it then where do we end up? A total collapse of the global financial system resulting in a massive decrease in global productivity.

I don't really expect Bush to understand the world of finance and economics, but he really looks lately (even more than normal) like he's just reading words out loud when he's making a speech.

 

He makes it look SO obvious that he doesn't have any clue about what he's saying.

Yep, and I would add Bernanke and Paulson to that.

I think this is a little over the top, if Bernanke and Paulson don't, then who does?

In my view, the current situation isn't one that wasn't easy to avoid and the problem is as much a political one as one of finance.

IMO you suffer the same problem that others have when reading my posts. You read what you want to read, not what I've said.

 

I have been abused on another forum for a while. The claim was that I had said "gold is not a commodity".

 

After letting the other poster abuse me for a few days I then asked him to prove I had said that.

 

He couldn't because I had not.

 

Please note: Saying gold is a currency DOES NOT exclude it from also being a commodity. Likewise vice versa.

 

For your information I think gold & silver act as both commodities and currencies. The importance varies. Sometimes they are mainly commodities, at other times they act mainly as currencies.

 

You prove they do not have the characteristics of currencies.

I'm not abusing you, and I'm not reading anything but the words and I really do apologise for any offence caused.

Whilst I agree that the movement of gold is well correlated with currency movements at the moment, if you check my previous posts you'll see that I've often pointed out this correlation with respect to the gold price. All it takes is look up the definition of currency and commodity to invalite the statements:

"gold is a currency"

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/currency

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency

"gold in not a commodity"

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/commodity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity

I'm not claiming that you said either of these, only that I've seen these statements paired many times. I'd rather see people discussing correlations, than making assertions, but I really wish that I hadn't posted now, because it's really not worth fighting over.

This is quite a common question, and one I identify with, because when I started looking at gold & silver I also was told that they were priced in US$...

I've vowed to myself not to respond to "gold is currency" stuff again, but read it back and I'm sure that you'll agree that there is no logic in this post.

Since no one rose to the challenge last time, I offer the same challenge to anyone that believes that gold is currency and not a commodity, to define the terms "currency" and "commodity".

I really shouldn't be concerned with this, but I don't like to see mis-representation, even if I agree with the motive.

What the hell happened to XAU??

Looks right to me, it largely behaves as leverage on the movement of the gold/silver price.

I expect to see both the XAU and HUI close to their peaks in March, if and when gold hits $1000 again.

BV has $900 now

It's good to break the resistance at $902, looks like a challenge on $1000-$1003 may happen very soon!

Oil up by 20% is pretty exciting. It looks like the oil market has decided that it won't be debt that strangles the world economy, but energy prices after all, so let's see how quick the world can restructure, if any of our politicians are interested. Perhaps they're expecting the free markets to think long term and guide the changes in infrastructure, because the financial sector has always been good at that hasn't it...?... oh wait, hold on... It is up to the state, isn't it...? Someone should tell the electorate quick, before they vote in conservative governments again.... I wonder who in the media will help us...? oh crap...

Looks like another challenge at $900 is imminent, I've got a good feeling about this one.

What the hell happened to XAU??

Looks right to me, it largely behaves as leverage on the movement of the gold/silver price.

I expect to see both the XAU and HUI close to their peaks in March, if and when gold hits $1000 again.

Are we calling this a win for fp, then?

Along the same vein, does anyone think there's merit to a prediction thread, where people can post predictions over a specified timescale, which can be measured and tallied for kudos?

I reckon that more the half the people on this site now and to be, will shit their underpants and bail out long before the the end of this gold bull.

 

Just my opinion, of couse.

 

I plan to bail out before the end of the bull run, but I expect it will be before rectal incontinence sets in.

Gold and Silver “Leasing” Examined

That's a very useful link, thanks!

Bakachu,

 

Good question. Thats an interesting line of questioning that might cast light on future movements of the gold price. The 2001 spike seemed to occur early in the year, i.e. not after 9-11 (when one might have expected a dash into gold). Curious. Hmm, although I remember one poster here pointing out that one of the reasons for leasing gold would be to short it.

 

Grateful for any insights...

 

Wanderer

It was me who posted about borrowing to short, though I'm no expert on gold leasing. This gives as much information as I have:

http://www.anglofareast.com/0138.html

I think Dr Bubb may understand this in more depth and is of the opinion that the current rise in lease rates is very bullish for gold, but I've not understood his logic.

I think the subject can get very complicated and that you may want to try to understand the objectives of GATA, www.gata.org before drawing any conclusions.

Thanks. You're wrong of course - my wife is the biggest risk of all if I lose any more of the STR fiat on PMs (down currently by a few K on a 10% investment)

 

She is not reasonable and has no financial understanding.

My wife's easy going about our 100% investment of STR fund. Perhaps we need a new thread for wives of STR husband that have spunked the fund on PMs! Depending on the price of gold, they could discuss torture methods or tasty cooking. :lol:

Perhaps you could make it PC and substitute the word "wife" for "partner".

I remember reading a study into the investment strategies of men versus those of women, it found that men took more risks and had more confidence in their own judgement than women and compared the performance of their portfolios. Women's portfolios significantly outperformed those of men, so perhaps the "wife" knows best.

http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b...00779fd2ac.html

John Authers on gold.

Just the obvious stuff, though I'd go on to suggest that there is good evidence that the gold price may have finally decoupled from the dollar/euro price.

fiat is the biggest risk of all

I posted this a while ago, but I'm going to post it again to highlight the volatility of the gold price.

Personally I'd say that if you're risk adverse, at the moment, cash is the place to put your money.

If you can handle volatility of a factor of 10 and greater and like to take the time to predict markets, then precious metals could be a lot of fun, but whatever you do, don't see them as "safe".

WTF!!! who farted in the gold exchange????????

I think the drop is related the UK ban on short selling of financials.

I wonder where the panic changes to the the capitalist system will leave us? The theory that installing confidence in the system by not interfering and allowing the free market to determine the outcome seems a long way behind us now. What will it take for people to believe in capitalism the same way they did in the 90s?

It's pretty clear that the long held premise that 'capitalism has won' is on very shaky gound, even David Cameron thinks so!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a1248668-84d8-11...00779fd18c.html

bounced off $920 Onwards and upwards my son.

Finally some excitement today, I was getting a bit bored of gold.

Back above $866 and climbing...

anyone want to take a punt on where this rise will end?