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Posts posted by Dispassion
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i just found out that the gold market is a desert right now.
check out the number of open contracts, they are LOWER than March lows! the good thing is that there is no shorts (and no longs either), kind of "vacations"... really weird.
Nice chart, do you have one that goes back further, I find it hard to get reliable volume information on gold. September is usually the start of buying season for gold, I'd like to see how last september compares.
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895 didnt hold, next stop 890, i closed
Don't fret just yet, the 200 dma will come into play slightly below $890, we could see a strong bounce.
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Repeat with me.
Gold is not a commodity.
Gold is not a commodity.
Gold is not a commodity.
Gold is not a commodity.
Gold is money.
I kept on saying this over and over again on Hpc.co.uk but nobody listened. Gold is a currency - the ultimate currency by which all others are judged.
What are we saying when we say that "Gold is a currency"?
Are we saying that the gold market is well correlated with currency markets?
Are we saying that it can be freely exchanged for goods and services?
What are we saying when we say that "Gold is not a commodity"?
Are we saying that is not a material, in demand, that is supplied without qualitive difference?
Are we saying that the market for it, isn't well correlated with commodity markets?
What do we mean when we say the "currency by which all others are judged"?
Are we saying that the value of gold is constant and the value of currencies, stocks, commodities, property and bonds, can historically, only meaningfully be measured against gold?
These are tangible statements that we can get facts and data for, to either prove or disprove the argument and more importantly, understand more about the forces driving the gold market.
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This suggests that shorters are getting tired.
Here's an article from Jan '06.
Yup, it looks like there's less shorting going on than ever before, so I'd presume that it's longer term investors that have sold off recently, perhaps financials liquidating assets?
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Fear of a deflationary recession by investors. A lot of them are jumping ship in anticipation.
Whether they are right or not is another question. One I shall leave others to answer.
However...
If you think they are wrong, you hang on in there.
If you think they are right, you jump ship yourself before it gets any worse.
That explains the trough in gold price, but I'm still not understanding why such a wide and deep trough in lease rate has coincided with it.
I've read in a number of places that gold acts as a hedge against deflation too. I don't pretend to understand the fundamentals of gold under deflation, I've not looked into it because I don't think the central banks will let it happen unless a far greater force crops up than those at play at the moment.
Allastair Darling, for example, has pretty much abandoned the MPC's inflation target, though he expects inflation to be back on track by the end of 2009, but I'd guess that these targets are based on an optimistic view of wage restraint rather than negative equity driving up pay settlements.
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/9/5/le...ernor170608.pdf
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http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html
I'm finding the current troughs in gold lease rates and gold price to be interesting. Perhaps, very few want so be in a volatile market over summer holidays, but by my reckoning we've only seen lease rates hit zero, once before, in March when they went negative. This trough is deep and wide, anyone got any explanations?
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
I've found a site that uses supercharts, like the one you posted.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W
The weekly and monthly charts don't tally with the daily chart, so I've no confidence in this data, but if anyone does have reliable volume info for gold, could you post it up please.