notanewmember

Be grateful for everything everyday - there are people out there who are really in a bad way.

Might be a bit of a tangent, but there's a very interesting documentary series on BBC2 at the moment, covering how TfL keep London running. They've done a series about the Tube, but they're now covering the less obvious world of surface transport. Last night was all about night buses. Interesting stat for me was that the night bus network has trebled in the last ten years as the population has increased and the 24/7 city effect has radiated outwards and ever more people are working at night (cleaners, bar staff, clubs, restaurants and whatnot). People tend to focus on property prices being impacted by rail network enhancements (Overground, Thameslink, Crossrail etc), but the bus network strikes me as another useful indicator, just perhaps more subtle. Either way, fascinating programme. There was one guy who had lost his job and house in the credit crunch, who now worked during the day and more or less lived on the night bus. His tactic was to ride the longest route that heads deep into the suburbs and ultimately Heathrow T5. He'd then use the washroom facilities at the airport, try and grab some rest somewhere quiet and then ride the bus back. That sort of existence had simply never occurred to me. Depressing situation, for sure, but a remarkably innovative strategy for adapting to it.

This guy has done some urban exploration in New York - this is an interesting watch. There are plenty of places and niches people use to get buy, in the worlds most expensive places to live.

15mins in

Roll up up, limited special offer on Wealth Insurance!

Well the silver lining in this cloud, is that to insure your wealth if you haven't already (the old adage, 10% of your net worth), just got cheaper.

Seems like long time since I heard any of the gold bulls uttering anything about the magical ratio:

SNIP

Well, historically we have seen this reversal before:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9343&st=120#entry275024

^See the circled areas

I did ruffle up some charts of the Dow and gold in 1975 - but they have disappeared from the original post.

Sheesh.

Down 3% in the last hour.

$1239 now.

 

There's no bottom on this thing.

I wish I kept my mouth shut! OR took that trade!

Gold - 5 years

 

 

 

How low can it go?

A reasonable target for a "shorter" would be the difference of the previous trading range.

OK so the trading range can be drawn as $1900 and $1550. That is $350.

SO $1550 - $350 is $1200 as a reasonable target. Would one go long here in a major way? No because it could bump around that level for a while.

What ever the "elite" have done it has prompted a physiological wave of selling.

My mother this weekend wants to SELL and buy back in lower. The tiny amount she has I shouted, is for insurance purposes and it isn't worth it. The conversation got rather heated - I think this is a lesson, don't give advice to your family.

I said my car value is getting cheaper every day, but I don't go out and sell it do I?

That is true. If gold broke past $1200 that would make a good entry point to sell, your stop isn't far away then. However it is so volatile your stop needs to be wide and gold is difficult to trade at the best of times. One must know this market inside out - I do not.

 

 

Good reading.

 

If you didn't know anything about Gold and were trading just on the charts, there is no [sucessful] technician in the world who would be buying right now. Rather they would probably be shorting back into any strength.

 

Think I'll stay on the sides for a little while longer.

New 2yr and 3yr lows in gold are bearish indicators. I would wait until the dust settles, one can't stop a freight train with a brick wall. Jesse Livermore says never average down!

John Nadler - ALL IS FORGIVEN! I wonder what he has been saying lately?

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Some comentary from EdgetraderPlus, and don't worry it is reassuring reading.

Saturday 22 June 2013

Whatever expectation you may have, expect the unexpected and unlike what you may

expect. So far, that has been playing out quite nicely, and one of our expectations is that

it will continue to unfold in the same manner, and to the ongoing surprise of most.

“Gold will be at/above $2,000 by the end of the year.”

“Gold will reach $3,000 [$5,000, $10,000, etc] and silver $100, [$250, $500, etc]”

“The central bankers are [just about] out of gold.” [The cupboards are likely bare.]

What is wrong with this picture?

Not one Precious Metals guru has gotten anything right in the last 18 months. All have

been calling for considerably higher prices. - See more at: http://edgetraderplu...h.6M5JZUEB.dpuf

UK price using the ETF PHGP is £817/Toz.

Wow, gold at $1286 / Toz. Didn't think I'd see that level this week.

A bit of a oxymoron though. If we had the road resurfaced and the pavements repaved, it would add value to all the homes in the street. They have already upgraded the street light posts to metal (were concrete) and to LED white lamps.

^Time for reflection. If you were on margin and got called in, what can you learn from it? What non-monetary profit can you take from this experience? What have you learned about yourself? Time to get away from the markets for a bit, climb that mountain discover the inner peace and karma.

In investing, one has to experience the pain, in order to enjoy the happiness of profit. That is why when you used buy music albums, you had to endure the rubbish songs, in order to enjoy the ones you like.

It's only money - it can be made back another time. And gold is for insurance, the original reason for it's ownership. If your house hasn't burned down, you don't go and not renew the buildings insurance next year?

Never get into a room that you cannot get out of later, i.e. never get into a trade that you cannot get out of later.

Remember this? Note this contains explicit language.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIMwMsY0ndo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKAu2cP0aHM

^And this one is really explicit....!

I suspect some dealers are unwilling to sell bullion at a loss at these lower prices. They will just say they are sold out. Understandable, and good news for longterm investors.

The target bottom would be the same distance as the previous trading range. Marked in red - this is an old chart from February but illustrates the point.

$1200-$1300 area.

This video partially explains it in generic terms, what I said above;

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkHctbFTUc4

 

And this is the gold GLD chart - almost an exact case study for the video above. Watch this space - will we be in the $1400 price level or back up into the trading range in 3 months time?

Has the squid won?

These are my forecasts, valid for the next 3 months (just for educational purposes, and not investment advice).

GOLD$ - Neutral stance, until it closes weekly under $1490/Toz I would be bearish, above $1810/Toz I would be bullish.

GOLD£ - Neutral stance, until it closes weekly under £990/Toz I would be bearish, above £1100/Toz I would be bullish.

As above, significant

I came up to a bearish sell signal on gold a few days ago in the private blogs section of this forum, goldman must be looking at the same price levels as I am. I can't believe it so I m waiting for a few more days of data.

There's really nothing to see here, like gold - I'm neutral, and will remain so until these lines in the sand are breached. Chart lines are valid for the next three months.

HUI looks like a bottom (but not necessarily THE bottom);

GLD never got to trade in the $1600 area at the open, perhaps that is why we're pretty lucky over here in the UK to trade the hours that we do, and it has significantly backed off that price level, so one had to be in and out real quick.

^We've zoomed in here on the daily chart.

We will probably retest the red line area once more.

If you want to trade this, you want to kiss the apex on the corner sweetly like an F1 driver, or pull the trigger when you see the whites of the enemies eye. One could buy close to $1500 as you dare, and your stop isn't far away at $1490 so your downside immediately mitigates your loss, and you have a target 2x your risk.

 

I don't do bottom fishing in a trading range, as it isn't my style, but that is how you could play it.

 

Bottom fishing this time got a bite.

See how we took that corner on the RSI. - The extended target would be the moving average if we got lucky - and we did at $1600 (not updated yet on the daily chart). No slanting technical analysis lines required.

Out of interest the same pattern is seen in Cable. BUT it has broken that trading range. Could we see an exchange rate of 1.4? The RSI indicates enough momentum! Great news for Gold bulls in £ terms. I find horizontal trading range support and resistance lines are obeyed, and I can't ever get slanting lines to work.

This video partially explains it in generic terms, what I said above;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkHctbFTUc4

And this is the gold GLD chart - almost an exact case study for the video above. Watch this space - will we be in the $1400 price level or back up into the trading range in 3 months time?