John Doe

FP holding back as usual

I was referring to government spending, but yes, essentially credit expansion will continue, but as long as growth keeps up (which of course it doesn’t always) and inflation remains moderate (which of course it might not) then the expansion is controllable. It’s worked for the last 100 years (on the whole).

From what I have been told, any major job losses will be announced this year. Future cuts will be based upon natural wastage (lovely term). Bold as Brass is correct in that after this year, things will not be as bad as spending returns to "normal" levels (after inflation taken into account that is).

True, but I never said it was a good outcome, just the best of the alternatives. I think it will be grim whatever happens, just depends on how many it will be grim for. The fewer, the better.

Personal debt yes, there are some negative, but also some positive (eg nominal falls in housing are less, therefore less neg eq). But there are other (arguably more important) effects, eg the deficit will halve over ~5 years with just 3% CPI. That'll certainly help the help the tax payer, and keep rates lower.

Not forgetting the so-called "wet dream" outcome, where they teeter between inflation and deflation for several years while slowly inflating away the debt (as they have been for the past couple of years).

1996 was a bottom after a previous boom. The data before that was under a totally different social setup. EG many homes are now two earners, before they were not. Prices are likely to fall for a few more months until the uncertainty currently circulating is put to bed by telling those who are going to be made redundant who they are. At present 1 in 4 people thinks it will be them. It’s worse in the public sector (1 in 3). No wonder people aren’t buying anything, let alone houses. There should be a levelling out then, and inflation will mask the rest of the fall. Maybe we will get back to a more normal situation in a few years, maybe not.

Lots of ifs there Doc. What if the shale gas reserves prove to be as big as expected? What if huge swathes of Africa etc are turned into productive crop areas for food an bio-fuels? What if they are shuttling He3 back from the moon by then (easily feasible within 10 to 15 years)? What if the space aliens come and give us new energy sources? And a trap of his life?? After 20 years he would own it, outright (if bought with a 20 year mortgage). No trap, just freedom

That's incredible if you consider a ~66% reduction in the number of sales on top of that!

Thats not what I read? You were looking at the YOY (Jan to Jan NSA) AllMonNSA I make that ~0% MOM NSA Yes you really do need to dig beneath the spin

Because they are seasonally adjusted because there is a seasonal effect? They (Haliwide) have always been SA and no-one seems to mind when they are adjusted the other way in the spring? More important would be the mortgage numbers out today (ouch!) http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Instant-v...176137.html?x=0

I’ve been told that the majority of those who will be made redundant in the forthcoming job losses in the public sector will be informed between Feb and April. Apparently, everyone is on hold at the moment, not knowing if it will be them. As soon as the deed is done, the uncertainty that is largely to blame for the depth of the situation at present will evaporate (until the next round that is), leading to an improvement in GDP and a slowdown in housing falls, maybe even a levelling off.

Nope, that would have been the Dec figures. These are for Jan and the snow had all gone by xmas.

Nah, just the snow I listened to the whole Merv speech. Very good on the whole. It was interesting that he said wages were essentially back to 2005 levels and would continue to fall (real terms) for a couple of years. Following the logic, House prices should fall back to 2003 levels. That would do nicely.

It's only what some of us have been saying and, unfortunately, the only real option (the least of the evils) to try to get through this almighty mess.

No danger of that now. Q4 GDP -0.5%! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12272717 Bang goes the interest rate rise.

I'm afraid the first option was most likely the real story.

I seem to remember someone not so far from here being seen running around with Mrs Wilson

Nice area Vs grotty area. I don't think I have ever seen such agreement on HPC. As some of us have been seeing / saying, the good areas really do seem to be holding up well, the grotty are falling like bricks. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...158114&st=0 As my first landlord told me many years ago, buy in the crap areas in the dip, then sell them in the boom. The percentage gains in the grotty areas far exceed those in nice areas in booms, and the reverse is true in recessions.

Could be OK for a while as long as you hedged the currecny risk (although in the UK you would probably gain from the movement ). I would have thought there would be enough of a warning to get your cash out if things looked like going down the spout bigtime. There were some flats in London shown on SKY last night going for £6000 per sq. ft (yes, square foot). The presenter mentioned that the average wage in UK would buy just enough space to put the coffee vending machine! PS Sidmouth is an old peoples home from what I remember, but it is by the sea, and nice and sunny. Maybe they are the only ones left with money

That would tend to be the case for the vast majority of Brits. I even see the BoE warning people not to go chasing higher returns in emerging markets (I suppose they would be daft not to say that at present though)

No no, I meant mortgage rates. I know that during the 70's and 80's mortgage rates were way way higher than 5%. In fact, even in 2001 a 6% capped was thought of as a very good rate

Since now, right here http://www.lovemoney.com/news/grow-your-we...?source=1000571

Wow, thats a lot lower than I would have thought, but I guess until the last 100 years there wasn't too much inflation? What was the average over the last 50 years? I would wager much much higher.

So that's where they are! B'stads