John Doe

Not if you include inflation I think Home are definitely one of the best (seem to be honest in their appraisal too).

Thats fair enough, but the NW and Hal forecasts for 2010 were for flat and NW came in at +0.4% and Hal at -1.6% And to be really fair, they made their forecasts a year ago, yours was a couple of weeks ago. For these VI's that's the best I have ever seen them forecast in many years. (Although, if Hal uses MOM instead of 3M, then they would have had a -3.4%YOY ) PS looks like we have had a fall of about 5% over the last 5 months up here in Glasgow (following a rise earlier in the year).

Wow, takes me back, under the cherry moon

Well said, and spoken like a true pro. I have a friend who is a plasterer (very good), he won't touch render. It's a pity you don't live closer, I could have given you a few small jobs. All the best, JD

Right PS, sounds a bit harsh on the job front. Good luck. (You don't do rendering do you?)

A little cheaper perhaps (eg petrol which is mostly tax, wouldn't be much cheaper), but they would have to raise a lot to do that, and the markets know the problems that would cause. If I were a bond trader, it wouldn't fill me with confidence. Not sure what you mean re the latest Vat increase. Is it the thought that this will add positive pressure to CPI, or negative as it really causes people to tighten their belts? I think we will see a bit of both of these effects. Although, from the lack of pull-forward demand seen in the auto trade and retailers reports over the last few days, it seems this might not be the case, hence upwards pressure on cpi and talk of 4%. However, the cuts etc and possible demand pullback will bring downwards pressure and I don't think inflation will run away without wage inflation. We are nowhere near there, (yet). I agree it is a risky game, but with inflation on one side and deflationary on the other, the best trick is to keep inflation bubbling away (eroding the debt, and reducing the deficit), while making everyone scared of deflation so they don’t demand pay rises. It seems to be working very well so far. 4% is not a problem for them (for a few months), more than this, for longer, would result in wage demands.

Try getting planning permission in the UK Nice idea though. I think they have these retirement villages in the US don't they? The thing is, although not purpose built, there are lots of villages in England, for example, where the older folk with a bit of cash have taken over and priced out the young, undesirables already (and bought up all the surrounding farmland to keep off the gypsies etc). So a potential angle could be to bring services/workers/self-sufficiency ideas to them in a type of partnership approach.

Yes but as Bold as Brass points out, it will make verry little difference to global commodity prices if the BoE acts (actually, I don't think anyone would notice). Besides, as you have pointed out, reckless lending isn't happening in the UK (hardly any lending happening here) especially re property. The balance is between a bit of inflation (which BoE and Gov are quite happy to have for now) vs asset price collapse from raising rates to high to quick, which would really hit our banks.

Apart from war/plague/total-worldwide-financial-collaps etc, the only thing I can see causing nominal falls of that magnitude would be a massive, sudden rise in rates (>8%). With the UK debt structured as it is, that remains a very faint possibility. PS I'm hoping for everyones sake that your (or mine for that matter) "worse case" doesn't arrive

Real prices or nominal? That's all the banks care about Anything's possible, but that's quite unlikely IMHO.

80% seems OK (100% was/is stupid)

I'd almost forgotten about that performance, and then it was on a "Best of" show a few months back, fantastic.

Sorry if posted before, but great tune and then there is this!

You're right, wonder why it was on Yahoo Finance earlier today? Strange.

Halifax reports "suprise" rise in house prices. Up 0.2%

Congrats on the purchase. You have obviously thought it through. We looked around there several years back, but ended up in the West End (work, friends etc) and then, later, the burbs. How are the midges? Mixed news here in G61/G62. A lot of properties recently sold (including friends that had both been on market for several months), but I wouldn't at all be suprised if they trickle down 5 to 10% over the next year or so. Home.co.uk has mixed data too (semi's down, rest up etc). PS, Nice pics (and wow, what a great weather week we've had), in fact, were just going up the campsies now Makes up for my miserable trading this week!

Ah, see what you mean. When I talk of IR rises, I am thinking more of the long term average of ~5%. That I think is still some way off (assuming no major shock like sov default etc, in which case all bets are off). However, I wouldn't say 2.5% is impossile within a year or two. But think it is still a very low IR and won't hammer the population anywhere near as much as 5%

Now that I can agree with

Sorry but the IR will only "have" to go up when the market demands. Until then, the BoE want them to be low. It appears that you think that the BoE want them to rise? They absolutely do NOT want them to rise, as they know the damage that this would cause. They believe a weak pound is great for the UK, and inflation (which they secretly want a bit of) will trump potential deflation every time for the CB's. Even with a couple of indicators looking slightly positive, it seems generally agreed that the risks are all still to the downside. That coupled with the looming cuts (many of which have already begun) is forecast to further suppress demand and inflation expectations for a considerable time to come. If anything, there will be more money printing to come. Oh, and I never said anything about "IR's remaining the same regardless of the economic indicators"

Have to disagree, your points would signal the opposite to me, or am I missing something?

That is correct and is already happening with a lot of the lenders. It is just the self cert (Liar-Loans) that will be banned, the vast majority of which have already been withdrawn some time ago. This will just stop them reappearing. The market will likely stay flat or (more likely) drift down slightly until the real nail in the coffin comes with rising interest rates. But, the rise in IR may not be for a good while yet.

Wow, that CGNAO has always been ahead of the game, he's even posting from tomorrow morning now!

Hi DrB, I recall you were thinking of HP derivatives etc some time ago. I would be interested in this as a potential hedge (in addition to the retention of our isa's etc while getting a mortgage) considering our recent purchase. Did you ever get any further with the idea?

I fully expect another potential 10-15% drop over the next couple of years, but these schemes, among the other safety nets and my realisation that rates will be kept low far too long than necessary, is why we recently have just bought a place. Did our research of course - according to nethouseprices (and historic price data) and accounting for the work needed on the property, it looks like we have bagged a ~30% below peak. Worst house in best street etc. Great school for baby Doe too. Small mortgage at historically low rate (kept enough savings to pay off if necessary). Other reasons too, like our rented house being sold etc etc.

Appears good areas doing OK, bad areas really suffering. Can't last though, as a lot of the cash rich are, apparently, now back in. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8253017.stm