lyb

Gold price always seems to do the opposite, one expects. Many have sold, expecting a double top.

Has temporarily exceeded 1000 Euro/ounch and silver closing 16 Euro/inch. As a Eurogold and Eurosilver investor (89% invested), it is time to open the champagne! Although I do know, once I do this, a sharp correction is likely to follow. A possible scenario, is that the correction will start (as in March 2008 when gold just exceeded 1000$/ounch) at the 1020-1040 Euro level. But then you have these projections of 1338$ gold and Jim Sinclair's belief we are heading to 1650 on this leg, no summer doldrums. Who knows? I have a significant dollar allocation waiting for the next sharp sell-off.

Double top? This is the moment of truth. If if goes through 1230, sky is the limit. I would prefer it to correct down from here, as I sold 6% of my position (reduced it to 89%).. A bet that I would be glad to lose.

As a Eurogold investor I am looking to sell some GLD at some point. Eurogold has gone parabolic. This is not healthy. Any guess where approximately is the top?

dollar increases in value but this is good news for eurogold investors Closing Euro highest price of 770, as wren predicted. A breakout in euro terms is very important, it will add fuel to the fire making this a global rally, but could take a couple of months for this to be established, RSI is presently too high.

Gold selling has never been able to overcome physical buying from India and I do remember there were reports of eager physical Indian buying while gold was in the 1080's. Although this sell off may continue for a while this talk about gold plunging to 800 is nonsense.

Wren Gold looks poised to break through the Euro maximum price of 770 some time before the end of the year (this rally is analogous to the rally of 2005). The maximum Euro price then was 350 and that was broken and gold reached 400 before January 2006. At the moment, however, RSI is 75, very high so there may be a correction to give a buying opportunity. I do not expect this to be significant, as gold has attracted some interest lately, and there are many waiting for a dip to get in. Barrick is also praying for a dip, they still have 3 billion $ to spend from borrowed money to buy back those damned hedges. The big question, is when silver will wake up. Of course, we know silver always plays catching up in rallies, so big gains are expected later in the winter.

gold fundamentals in doubt There is an interesting interview with Jon Nadler at the site above. He seems to suggest the gold fundamentals are not as strong. It is interesting that gold has not visited the 200 DMA this summer. I believe this is the first time and I have been following this market for 5 years. What is the reason? I believe that Jon Nadler is right that there has been a lot of speculation by hedge funds. Certainly the investment component is now a lot larger than it used to be. I remember when gold was in the 600's, supported by the jewelry market alone, it was stated then that rising investment was necessary for an increase above 700. Well this is now history. I do not believe there will be a strong correction to the 200DMA this year because 1)We have just entered the strongest seasonal period for gold 2) Barrick still wants to dehedge about 3billion $ with the money they borrowed, to close all hedging. 3) Gold is still cheap priced in Euros (currently 715). Any pullback will trigger strong jewelry demand in Europe. I bought some physical myself at 680 in August which is well below the peak of 770 last spring. The large short commercial position is used as an argument of an impeding fall, however, a similar occurence in October 2005 preceded one of the strongest rallies so far. My guess is that now is a good entry point, the next will be in August 2010.

I have been following the very informative discussion on gold here on GEI for a long time. I started investing in PM since 2005, thanks to Dr Bubb, and have been watching closely the gold market. I primarily use the buy and hold principle and do not plan to add to my investment (already>80% invested in gold, silver and PM stocks with excellent, indifferent and bad results correspondingly) but would consider trading small fractions at appropriate times, although I have no trading experience. My impression so far has been that the market fluctuations are analogous to 2007 and gold may consolide in the 900's range until the next wave up in September. The surges appear to have a period of 2 years, thus the surge in spring of 2006 was followed by consolidation in 2007 and the surge in spring of 2008 may also be expected to be followed by consolidation in 2009. This expectation is based on the fact that the demand is still primarily driven by the jewellery sector, not investment, and jewellery demand increases only when prices are stable. The gold price stability in 2007 resulted in sharp increase of demand by India and this was necessary for the next investment driven wave up in 2008. This view is not inconsistent with DrBubb's view that a revisit to 850 is possible and we may have already seen the high point this spring. I noticed, however, yesterday a small inconsistency which could be important. In February 2007, the gold price was close to the 200DMA. In analogy the current correction should lead to 850 (which is approximately the current 200DMA level). But the latest COT report, showed a sharp increase in commercial longs and the HUI over the last two days was stable despite the reduction in the gold price. Is the correction over and might we break the 1000 level again?. That would break the analogy which I tried to draw. Perhaps, it is dangerous to draw conclusions on the basis of a single cot report, or the significance of the report is overemphasized.