TrueNorth

Catching up here reminded me, how well did the pundits fare in their 2012 house price predictions? I went to look for the story I recalled on the bbc news site, which I found here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16288438 What does it say that there is no analogous bbc story for 2013 predictions? (there's one on the Telegraph site)

Welcome gallivant, hope you enjoy participating.

Has anyone seen this from Clive Maund, courtesy of 321gold.com? http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67 A bloodbath is believed to be imminent in the silver market, now that its cheerleaders have herded their flocks into the corral, ready to be fleeced again. In the last update posted early last week, we expressed the view that an intermediate top was forming in gold and silver, a view that is reinforced further by the inability of both metals to break higher later in the week, and the now towering Commercial short position in silver as revealed by the latest COTs. On its 6-month chart we can see how silver has continued to track sideways beneath a resistance level approaching $35. It had a go at breaking out upside on Thursday when the dollar apparently broke down, but failed, and weakened again on Friday. If we look carefully at this chart we can see that, following failure of the steep uptrend that began in the middle of August, a potential Double Top is completing beneath this resistance that portends a drop, and we have already observed several bearish candlesticks with long upper shadows developing beneath the resistance, which is a big reason why we turned bearish. Failure of the support level shown, which is probably imminent, can be expected to lead to a brutal plunge.

That is a very sensible idea Bold as Brass. I commend your ingenuity.

One can only conclude that the housebuilding industry employs the most talented lobbyists.

Great analysis GK. And interesting and useful thoughts from Dr B on the overall trend and the builders as a bell-weather. Thank you.

last page of Savills report linked above full of NewSpeak

from Savills http://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/uk/residential-property-focus-uk/residential-property-focus-q2-2012.pdf sub required

By MoneyWeek Editor John Stepek May 03, 2012 Moneyweek link in the comments section, CoolDude says

hear hear!

Interesting, reading this what came to mind was Jonathan Davis saying, paraphrased, "Whence goes volume, so goes price". I cannot understand how prices have held up. I can only conclude that the only transactions taking place are between motivated buyers and slightly delusional sellers. We are moving house and have offered to rent a new-build that simply has not, and likely will not, sell at its current price. Why they haven't lowered the asking price is beyond me.

If so it has taken it's freaking time in coming!

My friend sent me this

thank you GF.

Goldmoney chart what the hell just happened?

Baffles me, too. I suppose some people are simply forced to spend a ridiculous percentage of their income on shelter. "Forced" in that they need to live close to their work, for eg. And yes, am up north. I reckon to buy this place would cost me at least £1700 a month even with a decent downpayment.

Funny you say that, I have been noticing the same thing here. Houses that were 'sold' are coming back on the market. Lots of places just sitting. A few have gotten offers after dropping advertised prices by 10 or 15 grand. A nice one bed flat in a converted mill was dropped from £89 950 to 84,950 and has finally sold for -- brace yourself -- £64.500. That is the advertised price, anyway. I realise it is not a house, but as a percentage, that is a huge haircut. On the lettings front, after a shortage of 4+ bed houses being available, or being quickly snapped up over the summer, since September these have been accumulating on the market. There are now several that have been available since the start of Sept. I guess everyone with sprogs wanted to get moved and be done with it, so now they aren't moving. One place in particular I would be interested in. A nice 5-bed victorian, they are asking £975 and it has been advertised since the end of August. Vacant since end of Sept. So one month vacant, and owner looking to do a deal. How much should i offer? I recall someone saying that unless you are embarrassed by your offer, you are offering too much. I was thinking of saying £750 and seeing where we go with that. Bottom line is, I would like to live there for at least a year. I am finding my current place is a bit small, so it would suit me to move, even to pay a bit more. But I am not desperate to move.

I agree. And the weather is dreadful. My sister told me, "You have to find somewhere with better weather. Life is too short." She's right!

Have noticed locally that vacant high-end properties that haven't sold in +6 months are finally being offered for rent. Vendors clearly wise in choosing to get tenants and having the place heated this winter, to heating them themselves. I would happily rent one but they tend to be thermally disastrous and completely wasteful. It's a shame, though, because these are some decent properties.

That's a good question warpig. PositiveDeviant that is an excellent chart, thank you for posting. As one who wanted to buy juniors but was too scared in 2008, that is the kind of kick in the pants that I require.

I don't think that sort of critique is particularly helpful, Van.

I agree. I just found a gorgeous 5 bed end-terraced victorian to rent for £1000/month. I couldn't buy it for a mortgage payment of nearly twice that. . . not yet, anyway. But hopefully, it will drop in price in the coming denouement. . .

I am in the midst of reading the Tullet Prebon Armageddon Report and was particularly interested to see Tim Morgan hint at property in the executive summary.

Ashraf Laidi on silver today, interesting analysis Ashraf some good charts including this one

Another new nominal high in gold in USD. Not much comment here. Interesting. Have we all become very complacent about gold's rise?