Van

With gold at £650 per ounce and latest nationwide showing 257,000 as average London property price (Jan 9th - it will be lower already) that means we are now at 395 ounces for the average London house. Looking at the chart, we are at the first level of support. I think we will see 300 by the spring.

 

Now in 2016...

Nationwide London HP: £457,000

Gold in GBP: £757

Ratio: 603 ounces

With Crude @ $32 and gold @ $1100, I make it that we are seeing a historical extreme in the Gold:oil ratio:

1100/32 = 34.3

http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart

= 0.03 Oil/Gold ratio

Is this cheap?

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/dominic-frisby/is-oil-cheap-compared-to-stocks

Looking stronger today.

In hindsight, last week's interest rate decision looks to have put in a "lower high" in DXY. If so, the chances are good that gold has just put in a very long term double-bottom.

Estate Agents say: It's a one-way bet!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35102130

Market top?

Almost down to the 2008 low now. This plunge is effing insane.

Important to note that neither GDX or Silver confirmed the recent new low in gold, and now we have a bounce today, things are looking much stronger.

Could be a big short squeeze coming.

BTL investors will be hit with a 3% surcharge:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34922738





Property value/Standard rate/Buy-to-let/second home rate (April 2016)
Up to £125,000 0% 3%
£125 - £250,000 2% 5%

£250 - £925,000 5% 8%
£925 - £1.5m 10% 13%
over £1.5m 12% 15%

those 5% and 8% bands are quite a significant uplift, imo.

Trying to pick a bottom here.. tricky. Tight stop in place.

New lows being touched.. looks like another leg down for Crude.

Actually reasonably impressed with gold "only" down 1.5% following such a strong job report.

Better to get it out of the way - only then can the bottom be "in".

Downtrend looks like it has legs, and even BDEV has joined in now.

UK Property - an Amber light has flashed ! (today)

 

PSN.L / Persimmon Plc ... 12-mos : All-data : 10d: 1915p - 32p - 144d MA is broken

 

 

An amber, rather than Red light, because BDEV holds up

 

 

 

BDEV.L / Barratt Dev'l ... 12-mos : All-data : xx

Housing prices are in a bubble given the economic conditions, the BoE effectively admits:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34741331

What a vicious beat down in the last 6 sessions, all because the market is stupid enough to actually think the Fed will follow through with their lip service.

I'm liking what I see in the behaviour of silver - begun to hold up better than Gold during the selloffs, and then outperform on the way up. In fact it has just managed to poke its head above its 133dma.

A very bullish sign for the PM sector in general.

What an utterly dejecting week for Gold - down all 5 days. Not bull market behaviour at all.

Turned around now after a disastrous US jobs report. Anyone who still thinks the Fed will tighten is delusional.

What an utterly dejecting week for Gold - down all 5 days. Not bull market behaviour at all.

Gold stocks went UP yesterday even despite gold going down - a very significant divergence (that needed to happen for the bull case).

One thing that I have learnt in watching markets for 10 years is that it's stupid to make predictions that are against the major TREND. You won't catch the turns, but you will be protected from having your money or your reputation on the wrong side of a major move. Often a new trend won't emerge for a year or so, but better to be late than be wrong.

Silver looking better than Gold since recent bloodbath. A good sign that we really have put in the bottom.

Just 1% away from breakout from a double-bottom formation.

Gold & silver looking good for a "higher low" pattern here.

The 34dma has turned up. Now if it can take out 1170 on a rally from here then we have a higher high confirmed.

1079 and falling.

So feeble - can't even manage a bounce.

Bottom could easily still be 20-30% away.

Yes, very ugly.

"10% if your wealth into PMs and hope it does badly." is not bad investment advice.

Gold:Sil ratio is now 75.

I'm feeling that the US economy is gubbed; whilst on the surface jobs numbers look great, underneath it's a whole different story with part-time replacing full-time, people dropping out of workforce etc.

 

Gold is pricing in a "no QE" strategy, whilst stocks are pricing in a "no Interest Rate hike" future. Personally, I think the wheels will come off big time soon and we'll be in an almost uncontrollable deflation. That's when Gold will react because the Central Bankers will be forced to un-taper, or launch the money-ICBMs or whatever.

The gold bugs have been complete idiots for the last 3 years. I include myself in this.

No doubt the bottom will fall out of the recovery at some point, but if you held gold you are sitting on very substantial losses. Don't even mention silver.

Where's the bottom? here? $1000? $800? No one has a clue at the moment. All that we know is that the price is falling and continues to go lower.

The pain is never ending. What a turd. Dow/Gold ratio is now 14.

It's death by a thousand down days right now.