Van

The is a worrying "lack of a bounce" after a 2% selloff...

Not sure I would be ecstatic about living next door to my inlaws....

Silver looking very good here technically to break out to new 6 week high @ 33.20 Above that we have another target @ 35.40 set it early October, and above that 37.50 set back in February. The rising mid term moving averages are very supportive of this move.

If the price of their homes is anything like the price of their sushi, you can count me out.

Welcome to Crony Capitalism, aka Fascism.

Hold onto your hats. It's going to go ballistic in Obama gets back in. http://dailyreckonin...election-thing/

Halifax -0.7% for Oct 2012. -1.7% YoY £158,426. http://www.lloydsban...ax/0611_HPI.asp That is the 3rd lowest ever number from Halifax, only Mar-Apr 2009 were lower. I think we are looking at 150k nominal bottom maybe in 2014.

It's austerity doncha know.

Nationwide has been remarkably consistent in the last 12 months, really: 165,798 Dec-11 -0.3 0.2 1.0 163,822 Jan-12 -0.3 0.1 0.6 162,228 Feb-12 0.4 -0.2 0.9 162,712 Mar-12 -0.9 -0.5 -0.9 163,327 Apr-12 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 164,134 May-12 0.2 -0.9 -0.7 166,022 Jun-12 -0.6 -0.8 -1.5 165,738 Jul-12 -0.8 -0.9 -2.6 164,389 Aug-12 1.3 -0.6 -0.7 164,729 Sep-12 -0.4 -0.4 -1.4 163,964 Oct-12 0.6 0.5 -0.9 164,153 Max 166,022 Min 162,228 So +/- 2.3%. BTW, someone should really tell them to put their charts on a log graph. That long term trend chart is looking more and more rediculous.

I agree that disposable income is what really matters, but that is just a function of nominal prices vs income. If nominal prices didn't matter then would be happy if your income fell 30% but the price of your gas bills fell 35% and the house stayed the same price? Of course not.

We could have just completed a $1700 double bottom.

Who said this about Gold: "In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. ... This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Answer: Alan Greenspan... in 1966.

I don't consider anyone who is still running a budget deficit to be truely running an austerity programme. They may be a little more austere than before, but they are still living above their means. And if anyone says that the austerity is resulting in the fall in GDP so it's a downward spiral, well that just should how much of these economies were made up of unnecessary governmental departments. They'll continue on this downward spiral until what's left is actually of productive value.

That's not news, mate. Another jump in the delusion index, still what did you expect when the Olympics have given everyone a sense of invicibility?

Halifax -0.4% last month, now below the 160k barrier: http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-19821613 This latest fall means that the average UK house now costs £159,486, which is 1.2% lower than at the same point a year ago. I see from the press release that Halifax/ASHE ratio is now down at 4.25, not too far from the long term average of 4, which is.. interesting.

5 more years of real term glacial real falls. Guaranteed. Intervention is turning what should have been a 5 year bear market into a 10 year one. The last one took 7 years to bottom. Why did we think this one would ever be any quicker?

Is a pension not an investment? JD, you have not considered tax efficiencies here. It will drastically alter your calculations. £10k into your pension is not the same as £10k into a BTL. The pension contribution is from your gross pay, the BTL is from your already post tax income, then furthermore any income you draw from the property rental will be taxable and any profit from sale will be also be taxable. Now, if you consider that if your employer runs a pension schemes on a matched contribution basis, you could be looking at giving up £32k or so of pension contribution to put £10k into a BTL.

Agree, without nominal rises Agree, without nominal rises houses are a mediocre investment at best. As a PPR there is an argument to be made. Has anyone checked the mortgage market? This move by the Fed was the worst kept secret in history and has been front run by the market since May. Bonds FELL on the fed announcement.

On the other thread.. search on 2012 house price predictions. I don't expect any change in base rates until there is a USD and/or GBP crisis, and no one knows when that will be, but I also wouldn't put my money on us making it through another election cycle without there being a major currency crisis. The housing market won't collapse until there is a spike in interest rates, and can't rise when people are getting poorer through the effects of QE, so it is drifting in the twilight zone, like a vast expanse of no man's land. If I were buying now I'd fix for 5 years. When I remortgage next year I'm going to fix for 5 years (I expect to have almost paid it off by the end of this).

Mean reversion awaits London: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be2ba05e-f8e0-11e1-b4ba-00144feabdc0.html#axzz26LbmNmve

Aug-07 1 Sep-07 0.990795067 Oct-07 0.982858918 Nov-07 0.966198023 Dec-07 0.972285461 Jan-08 0.964491987 Feb-08 0.95448682 Mar-08 0.931072968 Apr-08 0.913328924 May-08 0.889095299 Jun-08 0.869430793 Jul-08 0.850950647 Aug-08 0.833713871 Sep-08 0.821219821 Oct-08 0.802262395 Nov-08 0.784683335 Dec-08 0.761866214 Jan-09 0.779278097 Feb-09 0.760014715 Mar-09 0.747243552 Apr-09 0.732246487 May-09 0.752309588 Jun-09 0.748170283 Jul-09 0.753330565 Aug-09 0.757976691 Sep-09 0.767075838 Oct-09 0.773073541 Nov-09 0.780652903 Dec-09 0.784002465 Jan-10 0.783005509 Feb-10 0.774235039 Mar-10 0.779239724 Apr-10 0.777988886 May-10 0.769632538 Jun-10 0.760693823 Jul-10 0.767054498 Aug-10 0.769175492 Sep-10 0.738683716 Oct-10 0.745107057 Nov-10 0.742148544 Dec-10 0.736712463 Jan-11 0.733763945 Feb-11 0.727082588 Mar-11 0.723409858 Apr-11 0.713207063 May-11 0.713053023 Jun-11 0.71686238 Jul-11 0.715996975 Aug-11 0.707806581 Sep-11 0.70363212 Oct-11 0.709987119 Nov-11 0.700989954 Dec-11 0.692045747 Jan-12 0.694820595 Feb-12 0.69053989 Mar-12 0.703741106 Apr-12 0.686053435 May-12 0.687392542 Jun-12 0.691343769 Jul-12 0.684780231 Aug-12 0.680103614 Halifax has hit a new inflation adjusted low, 32% down now (based on CPI deflator).

Well, it's been 5 years now, and thanks to TPTB I reckon we're still no more than half way through this glacial bear market. Halifax index is now down almost exactly by a third in real terms since the Q3-2007 peak. I think that the market is probably going to take a further little lurch downwards over the next 5-6 months, thanks to usual seasonal weakness and post-Olympic reality. Still reckon my forecast for -2.5% 2012 is looking dead on.

Hmm... this setup was so obvious that everyone seems to have missed it! -- http://postimage.org/image/g66jyb3nx/ Good ol' Stan Weinstein would say that we've just moved froma stage 1 into stage 2...

We could be looking at a retrace here: http://postimage.org/image/lm5n3u8lx/

Increasing mortgage costs are a very significant headwind for the UK housing market. Santander are rasing their SVRs: http://www.dailymail...es-SVR-0-5.html