Carlton

77.76, reminds me of the independence year. Is this a harbinger of a new era of monetary independence? Freedom from fiat? 1348.90 +8.30 +0.62%

True, but I and a few others find this part of the Au Ag comparison troubling. Silver spent less than 1 year over $20 and only 3 months over $25. The silver market in 1980 was peculiar. What would silver have done without the Hunts? It's difficult to know.

Maybe someday we can party like it's 1477.

This is what we hear in powerful bull markets that repeatedly set new highs - over and over, a top, a top.

Well, that's a suggestive post. 1. Infinity 2. Unknown, but something greater than zero.

From Thomson:

Ding, ding. I thought it was superbly done; I would have busted out laughing if I had tried to record that.

They're waiting for gold to regain $1200, then $1300 for confirmation, and then they'll pull the trigger at $1400. But seriously, on some charts you could justify expecting a pullback to $1100 or $1050, and some people are expecting a full-on deflationary blood-letting in which gold sells off.

^^ OMG, yes it does. Re: gold, read my sig and sit tight.

I think Stewart Thomson gets it: Comments? # There is a growing probability that the dollar could be backed by gold to some degree as the slide accelerates. I have categorically stated that if you felt fear that the euro was headed to zero at 1.18, you need to be prepared mentally for exponentially more fear, should the dollar begin sliding below .70 on the index. # I believe a failure of the .70 area on the dollar index will be fundamentally driven by the institutional money manager view that QE (quantitative easing; buying of assets in exchange for printed money) has FAILED or is at least projected to fail. I want to remind you that the difference between pure money printing and QE is that QE involves an exchange. There is an exchange of one item (mostly OTC derivatives in the case of the current crisis) for another (printed US dollars). # Pure money printing involves no real exchange. There is some value to some of the OTCD assets being exchanged now. In the case of money printing, there is no exchange, but simply the printing of money to whatever level is deemed necessary to mathematically raise asset prices. It is not until PURE money printing is utilized that hyperinflation becomes a serious risk. # There is a middle step between QE and money printing, and it is gold revaluation. No confiscation is needed in the current crisis to make revaluation “work”, because so few people own gold. The major central banks of the world are already committed to major long term gold buy programs (the opposite of the 1990s), and these buy programs are the mechanism of gold revaluation under a sort of “guise” of currency reserves diversification. The central “banksters” aren’t stupid; they didn’t get the market all wrong and accidentally sell their gold holdings into the end of the gold bear mkt, any more than the current buy programs are “knee jerk” reactions to a rising gold price. The buy program is about gold revaluation, not rushing to buy gold as an asset. As QE is more and more broadly deemed a failure in the fund community, the central banks will step up their gold buy programs, stepping UP the price they pay for the gold, with tremendous vigor. # The buy programs of the central banks are not about adding gold as a reserve to diversify their forex reserves, they are about devaluing paper money to raise asset prices, as blown marked to model otc derivatives can then be marked to market. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Thomson/jul272010.html

Notes from Toby Connor: ^ "8 year cycle" ^My guess is that the Fed's extreme monetary policy is acting to stretch gold’s intermediate cycle slightly. As you can see from the chart, gold is now about to enter the 24th week of the current intermediate cycle. This of course means it's becoming extremely dangerous to sell gold. On the contrary, this is the time where savvy investors want to be looking to add to positions. Remember, this is a secular bull market after all, and you only get this kind of opportunity about every 5 to 6 months. ...So the bottom line is we are on the verge of getting one of the best buying opportunities we ever get in a bull market sometime in the next week or two. The question you have to ask yourself is, will you take it or will you let the "technicals" talk you into missing another fleeting chance to accumulate at bargain prices in the only secular bull market left? Let's face it, at intermediate cycle bottoms the technicals are not going to look like a bottom. Instead, they are going to look like the bull is broken. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1279605900.php

Roubini Global Economics on gold: Synopsis: Gold may go higher, but it has gone up a lot already, so it may go down. Not even worth clicking on. http://www.cnbc.com/id/38342915

"If you question me then look at this message from above on gold." --Jim Sinclair

I have yet to listen to the broadcast. But I think the argument is that hyperinflation would shatter economies, leading to economic contraction and higher unemployment; this results in deflation in real terms, regardless of nominal prices. I should add, real deflation in asset prices, consumer prices may be another matter. Although, we've already had a period of price deflation, so whatever happens to prices, the record will show that deflation was followed by inflation (at some point). The asset deflation is continuing. So really the only question is how long will the deflation continue? 1 year? 20 years? And what will consumer prices be doing? And how do we profit from asset deflation and the movement in consumer prices? And will asset deflation make core currencies more valuable or will it eventually undermine confidence in the core currencies, perhaps due to QE?

Krugerrands. Recognizable and durable, being only ~91% gold. British sovereigns are also great, but I prefer to have the metal content stated on the coin (in case you need to trade it to a PM newbie).

Thanks for the great chart, id5. I am right in thinking that 100% here represents the 5 and 10 year moving averages?

This is common knowledge to people that have seriously studied the gold market. Gold is massively oversubscribed. Each ounce of physical gold held at most of the conventional warehouses and depositories has multiple claims of ownership against it. Various financial institutions engage in fractional-reserve gold dealing. The GLD and SLV ETFs have the effect of reducing demand for physical by directing money into (largely unbacked) paper products. The smart money (including folks like Paulson and Sprott) is acquiring physical.