frizzers

The Dark Side of the Force:

May the Force be with us:

Difference between trades and long-term investment

Don't know WM. Here's that chart <a href="http://img176.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bigdx3.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/8610/bigdx3.th.gif" border="0" alt="Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://img604.imageshack.us/content.php?page=blogpost&files=img176/8610/bigdx3.gif" title="QuickPost"><img src="http://imageshack.us/img/butansn.png" alt="QuickPost" border="0"></a> Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others! Just posted this elsewhere: I am short SPX from 1295. Covered some at 1220. I see a retrace to maybe 1260-1270, then further falls. I am long coffee from 135. I am long a shed load of gold miners and badly underwater with most. I wish I had more cash as I would be buying the feck out of various ones now. I have very little money in sterling. Physical gold is up 40% on last year v sterling. People look at dollar gold because that is how SBing works , but gold v pound gold is doing just fine. You selling your Krugers was a big wake -up call for me . But if you took pounds for them it wasn't that great a trade unless you got that money out of pounds sharpish. I am long gold from 850 as I thought it would hold there and it didn't. I would have bought more below 800 but then my position would get too big and I make crap decisions when my position gets too big. I think, gold-wise, this is post May 2006 all over again. 785 is a great place for a bottom, but we could also go back to 730 quite easily and even mid 650s. I do not think we will get a big move any time soon and see a year or more of whipsawing with the next run beginning most likely summer 2009. Too many people have been badly burnt. I would expect another test of 850 before Xmas, perhaps if dollar retraces some of its recent gains which looks likely. COT report is very bullish for gold (same as Aug last year) but less so for silver. Time of year very bullish. You've seen my dollar chart so a move to 850 looks very imminent. But you can't get wedded to the gold is the only money story. You have to be ruthless about taking profits in a whipsaw market. We are in entering a period of deflation, or at least perceived deflation , and of credit contraction. In these circumstances you are seeing a global flight to cash. Dollar is global reserve currency for now , so people are buying dollars. It is possible as in 2004-5 to see dollar and gold rise together. Fact that small investors are buying so much physical bodes well. But could also be small investor late to the party again. In short traders market for now. Not a stay long and be strong market. frizzers - 6 Sep'08 - 12:10 - 46280 of 46280 edit Also chart action looks we could be setting up a nice W bottom

Sitting on key monthly support.

I think the chap behind the movement's name is Hugo de Salinas from memory

According to Hoye and I think he is right, silver will outperform during an inflationary credit expansion , but it will be one of the worst performing assets during a deflationary credit contraction. We are in a credit contraction now.

Gold back down again today. $15 at time of writing.

I'm afraid it looks as if we are going to get a retest of the lows. If they hold that will set up alovely W bottom.

What's youreventual target, GF , forthe gold tohouse priceratio?

Hi Dr, Looking at this, I see some support at 2000 and if that doesn't hold - and it wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't - I see the next stop at 1500, in other words another 25% drop. This has fallen off a cliff. I am positive about the index because of the time of year, but that is all I can find to say that is positive about it. Sadly. Likewise gold will follow oil lower, if it goes lower imo.

I bet it was YK2 fears

Good work

Comedy clubs go all weird too.

Ker, I think this is more likely. See the simple trend line I have drawn

Interesting. Dec contract bounced off its May 06 highs and also straight off the trendline:

Yes, I was very impressed with that decision of theirs. edit typo

Only problem is that gld has left a huge gap to go back and fill

Great observation. Rhodium was the king of PMs

Thanks Plastic. That's exactly what I menat. Many thanks. COT still not as bullish s I'd like.

Steve, I have asked you this before so apologies . What is the URL of that site which has the gold chart with the COT position underneath? Thanks CC

http://www.retro.ms11.net/InvestorMind.gif?ref=patrick.net

This is ugly, ugly, ugly. My sympathies to anyone who has silver on margin. Virtually every intermediate support level has gone. If we do not hold here, I believe we will see 730 very quickly. If it wasn't August I would be declaring the bull market over.