frizzers
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Posts posted by frizzers
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Well, this accurately reflects my experience of London.
No HPC here:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ow-in-hendon.do
The average detached family home hits the £1m mark -
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Don't know why but I find my eyes wandering away from the eagles to something else ...
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Well, I've just come back from Norway and I effing loved it
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Understanding Derivatives
Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit . She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.
Heidi keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers' loans). Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit .
By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively.
A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.
At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS. These securities then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.
Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.
One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi.
Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's 11 employees lose their jobs.
Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.
Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from their cronies in government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Heidi's bar.
Now do you understand?
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Interesting GLD price action ... de ja vu?
add a 144 dma to that and it's even more so
good work GF
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I bought some bullion today.
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Can it happen in the next six months please. I want to move on.
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What happened in Dublin is not coming to London to anything like the same degree. The currency will go first.
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Nice area Vs grotty area.
I don't think I have ever seen such agreement on HPC.
As some of us have been seeing / saying, the good areas really do seem to be holding up well, the grotty are falling like bricks.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...158114&st=0
As my first landlord told me many years ago, buy in the crap areas in the dip, then sell them in the boom. The percentage gains in the grotty areas far exceed those in nice areas in booms, and the reverse is true in recessions.
yes, I agree with this ...
UK housing fell by 50% vs US$ (since bounced) ; it has fallen by 75% vs honest money ; crap areas have fallen by 35% vs pound ;
But London SW , and presumably other nice areas too, mid-sized family homes are trading at or above 2007 levels, though they fell back in 2008 -9 . People in such areas have money/equity and good jobs so lending not a great problem. There is a lot of competition for homes when they come on the market as people want to live here. Same goes for higher end stuff.
So if rates rise, we may see a pullback of 10 or even 20% , but a crash ... ain't going to happen imo. And if you're buying home who gives a toss about 10% correction?
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It's just not cricket is it Dom?! - Did you ever hear Peter Tinniswood's 'Apartheid' on radio4? Probably before your time, it is a 15 minute monologue with Robin Bailey on why 'they' are inferior & should never be allowed in. It's only in the last two minutes you realise he is talking about women at the MCC !
Drop-dead gorgeous Imran Khan turned more women on (to the game) than at any time in the great game's history imho.
Sorry guys, no apologies, gold is second best to test cricket
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Never mind, there is gold elsewhere.
One in the morning, listening to Test Match Special -- & special it is
England 609 - 9
Matt Prior out, 118. Swann just in & hits a four & a six. 619 - 9 - Another 4 - 623 - 9
Twenty off Johnson's over by nos 10 & 11 batsmen; now that is rubbing it in.
Test cricket, the greatest game of all
Yes, yes, yes ... are you sure you're a woman?
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Thank you ...
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GF - where're your house price in US$ and € charts? I can't find them
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Thanks for posting Ben Davies. Always entertaining these CNBC interviews and BD is so well composed. I think a lot of what he says is the FOFOA point of view. The 'endgame ' for gold is that it will endure much longer than paper. Then it will revalue itself much, much higher.
Interviewer: 'oh, come on...all bull markets come to an end''
Davies: 'maybe not, this time till gold reprices currencies in some form or other.
Great comments worth reading there, too.
Always worth tuning into KWN for the Ben Davies interviews if nothing else. Jim Rikards gave a great interview, particularly part 2 of the most recent recent interview. And Griffiths (Cazenove), too.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Bro...s__Part_II.html
Funnily enough the said interviewer's kids go the same school as mine and are in the same class. Although I don't think he was the interviewer, just another pundit.
His name is Chris Watling and he writes an economics newsletter Longview Economics.
He likes gold.
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Why not get some old junk coins - pennies or something - paint them silver and send them to yourself so he nicks them.
Then he'll get at least very embarrassed if he tries to sell them.
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Well, at least you found out now. And it only cost £50 or so
BTW if you bought with a credit card and never had delivery then you shouldn't have to pay
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Az, how can he have opened the front door?
Is this the countryside where you leave everything open?
BTW I met Vince Thurkettle the other day. Have you heard of him? A treasure hunter.
Finally, in this mish mash of a post, Mish on silver - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...end+Analysis%29
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No, it was 2005.
GF you need to do a shorter-term chart too. 10 years or something
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Another thought:
- The US tried to de-monetize gold in 1971 and did so to some extent.
- Oil took over from gold over the next decade or so.
- In the 90s, gold was dead, oil was the game.
- In the commodities rise so far, oil has seen the devastating sell-off (in 2008), not so much gold.
=> Thesis: the 1974 gold crash has been repeated in oil in 2008. It therefore won't happen in gold.
I see the 2008 sell-off in gold as 1974
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Goldfinger,
It would be interesting to see a shorter-term gold- and silver-to-house price ratio , perhaps a 10 year chart?
SILVER
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
What do you read into that?